Deep ploughing northwest ecological restoration business, seed industry + big data to build the core barrier. The company has ploughed the northwest ecological restoration business for many years, with a cumulative restoration area of more than 30 million mu over the past 20 years. The highlight of the company's business model is that the company through self-built seed industry R & D system + big data platform to restore the ecology. This method is especially suitable for the relatively harsh and changeable natural environment of the northwest region, and the competitive advantage is obvious.
In the climate warming and humidification cycle in Northwest China, the ecological restoration market may maintain a high level. At present, the warming and humidification of the climate in Northwest China has become the consensus of meteorologists, which can help ecological management projects to achieve the balance of water cycle and make it possible to repair areas where ecological restoration is difficult in the past. In terms of volume, according to the "Construction Plan of Major projects for Ecological Protection and Restoration of the Northern Sand Prevention Belt (2021 / 2035)", the demand for ecological restoration will remain high; from the price point of view, the increase in the difficulty of restoration will lead to an increase in the unit price of ecological restoration projects. In addition, as the difficulty of governance increases, the proportion of shrubs and herbs in restored vegetation will increase, which will help the company to increase its market share.
Photovoltaic helps ecological restoration and may become a new growth point in the industry in the future. Photovoltaic + ecological restoration is a model of multiple use of solar energy and land. The synergy of the two is that photovoltaic power stations can reduce sunlight radiation and water evaporation on the ground, increase precipitation, and spray water when cleaning panels. This can effectively promote the growth and restoration of vegetation. The second batch of scenic bases are located in the northwest, and "photovoltaic +" may become a new growth point of the northwest ecological restoration industry in the future.
The company's financial indicators are gradually improving, and grassland carbon sequestration is expected to bring the second growth curve. The company is gradually getting rid of the negative impact of PPP. 2021Q1-3 achieved a gross profit margin of 40.6%, an increase of 9.68% over the same period last year. The financial expense rate of the company was 1.52%, a decrease of 7.74% over the same period last year. The company's newly signed contract amount reached 2.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 690.57%. In addition, the national carbon trading market has been opened, and grassland carbon sequestration is expected to bring the company a second growth curve. The company is the forerunner in this field, the basis of preliminary work, carbon sequestration plant resources, the accumulation of ecological restoration projects and good and stable government relations will bring advantages to the company.
Give the company a "buy" rating with a target price of 7.24 yuan. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 0.22, 0.29, 0.37 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 21.40, 16.51, 12.81.
Risk hints: northwest warming and humidification is not as expected; grassland carbon sequestration is not as expected; grass seed industry competition
