上海石化(600688):2021年成品油盈利改善 “十四五”积极转型升级

Shanghai Petrochemical (600688): Profit improvements in refined oil products in 2021, active transformation and upgrading in the “14th Five-Year Plan”

海通證券 ·  03/24/2022  · Researches

The net profit of homing in 2021 improved significantly compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 89.28 billion yuan, + 19.51% year-on-year; net profit of 2.001 billion yuan, + 218.50% year-on-year; basic earnings per share of 0.185 yuan, weighted average return on net assets of 6.73%, an increase of 4.60 percentage points over the same period last year. The company intends to pay a dividend of 0.1 yuan per share (including tax) for 2021.

The recovery of profits from petroleum products led to an improvement in earnings in 2021. From the perspective of product structure, the profit improvement of the company in 2021 mainly comes from the petroleum products sector (steam, diesel and coal). The operating profit of petroleum products in 2021 is 2.967 billion yuan, an increase of 5.166 billion yuan over the same period last year. We believe that oil prices have rebounded and downstream demand has improved. promote a substantial improvement in the profits of the petroleum products sector. While intermediate petrochemical products (p-xylene, benzene, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, etc.), resins and plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene, polyester chips, etc.), synthetic fibers (acrylic fiber, polyester, etc.) due to the decline of the industry, as well as the impairment of assets and other factors, plate operating profit decreased by 1.217 billion yuan, 1.21 billion yuan and 490 million yuan respectively compared with the same period last year.

Asset impairment affects 4Q21 profits. In a single quarter, the company's 4Q21 realized a net profit of 35 million yuan.

The company's asset impairment loss of 658 million yuan in the fourth quarter is mainly due to the fact that the operating efficiency of some production units is lower than expected, or production has been stopped, and the production process is backward.

Adjust the product structure and increase the proportion of high value-added products. Affected by the plant overhaul in 2021, the company processed 13.7644 million tons of crude oil,-6.18% year-on-year, and produced 7.9688 million tons of oil products,-4.90% year-on-year. Among them, gasoline production increased, with a diesel-to-gasoline ratio of 1.00, down 0.22 from the same period last year; and the proportion of high-grade gasoline was 43.17 percent, an increase of 8.19 percentage points over the same period last year. In addition, the company increased the yield of chemical light oil by 0.75%, and increased production by 6838 tons of catalytic propylene, 7493 tons of high-pressure polyethylene and 22600 tons of ethylene oxide.

Plan 2022. In 2021, the company's capital expenditure was 3.533 billion yuan, + 67.68% compared with the same period last year, of which 24000 tons / year raw silk and 120,000 tons / year 48K large tow carbon fiber project invested 1 billion yuan in the whole year. In 2022, the company plans to maintain a stable capital expenditure of 3.5 billion yuan, a planned processing of 13.65 million tons of crude oil, and a planned production of 7.57 million tons of refined oil (5% year on year) and 825200 tons of ethylene (+ 16%).

Active transformation and upgrading during the 14th five-year Plan period, the layout of carbon fiber, hydrogen energy and so on. In 2021, the company issued the outline of the 14th five-year Plan, defining the development ideas of "oil refining to chemical industry, chemical industry to materials, materials to high-end, and parks to ecology". The oxidation and carbonization production line of the 1500 t / a PAN-based carbon fiber second stage project was completed in May, the hydrogen fuel cell hydrogen supply center (the first stage) completed the commissioning by the end of December, 24,000t / an original filament, 120,000 t / a 48K large tow carbon fiber project, and the 250,000 t / a thermoplastic elastomer new material project built in cooperation with Baling Petrochemical has made steady progress.

Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the company's net profit in 2022-2024 will be 2.1 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 0.19,0.21,0.23 yuan respectively, and the BPS in 2022 will be 2.90yuan. With reference to the valuation level of the comparable company, we will give it 20-22 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 3.804.18yuan (corresponding to 1.31.4 times PB in 2022), maintaining a "better than the market" rating.

Risk tips: the price of crude oil fluctuates sharply, the profit of oil products decreases, the price gap of petrochemical products narrows and so on.

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