In the past 21 years, the main operation of iron ore industry has been better, and the rating of "increasing holdings" has been maintained.
The company achieved revenue of 1.82 billion yuan (yoy+27.0%) and net profit of 128 million yuan (yoy-44.5%) in 21 years, which is basically in line with the range of 1.29-170 million yuan in the previous performance forecast (2022-011).
21Q4 realized revenue of 320 million yuan (yoy-23.3%, qoq-43.2%) and net profit of-250 million yuan (yoy-1166.3%, qoq-310.7%). Considering that there may still be elastic constraints on the supply side of the iron and steel industry under the dual-carbon background, and the ore price center has moved down but may still be supported in 22-24, we estimate that the EPS of the company in 22-24 is 0.58 shock 0.65 pound 0.66 yuan (the previous value is 0.89 0.96 pound-yuan), and the average PE (2022E) of the comparable company is 12.6x. Considering that the company's business is relatively pure and is actively seeking resource expansion, give the company a 22-year PE valuation of 14.5 times. Corresponding to the target price of 8.41 yuan (the previous value of 10.61 yuan), maintain the "over-holding" rating.
The price of iron concentrate rose sharply in 21 years, and the unit gross profit increased by 47.1% compared with the same period last year.
According to the company's annual report, the company produced 1.057 million tons of fine iron powder (yoy-12.7%) and 480000 tons of pellets (yoy+29.9%) in 21 years. Benefiting from the rise in iron ore prices in 21 years, the company's ferrous metal plate gross profit margin reached 31.0% (yoy+5.1pct), the main business results are good; 21 years, the main products iron concentrate average price of 1186 yuan / ton (yoy+37.9%), unit gross profit of 430 yuan / ton (yoy+47.1%). 21Q4 company's return to the mother net profit turned negative compared with the same period last year, mainly because the 21Q4 company one-time provision of non-planning expenses and dismissal benefits of 240 million yuan (announcement number: 2021-084), 21 years after the return of the mother net profit of 370 million yuan (yoy+60.6%); and according to the announcement (2021-090), there is no related provision, so this one-time provision affects the company's 21-year performance, but may be conducive to the healthy development of the company in the future.
The 21-year gross profit margin of sales increased by 2.1pct compared with the same period last year, and the dividend rate was 23.3%.
According to the company's annual report, the 21-year gross profit margin of sales is 30.4% (yoy+2.1pct), and the period expense rate is 23.7% (yoy+12.8pct), mainly because the management expenses include non-co-ordinated expenses and dismissal benefits of 240 million yuan, after deducting the expense rate of 10.4% (yoy-0.5pct), slightly lower than the same period last year. The net profit rate of sales is 7.8% (yoy-8.4pct), and 21.1% (yoy+4.9pct) after reimbursement of non-co-ordinated expenses and dismissal benefits of 240 million yuan. In 21 years, the company plans to pay a dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares, all of which are cash dividends, with a dividend rate of 23.3%. In addition, for 22 years, the company plans to produce no less than 1 million tons of iron concentrate powder, which is basically the same as the level of 21 years.
The ore price is still supported under the downstream elastic supply constraints, and under the background of maintaining the "overweight" rating double carbon policy, the supply-side constraints of the iron and steel industry in the past 21 years are strong, and the iron ore price fluctuates sharply due to the time gap between expectations and fundamentals. In 22 years, the steel supply end has not issued a rigid constraint similar to that of no increase in output in 21 years, but the double carbon background has not changed, and the iron and steel industry is one of the major carbon emitters, so it is expected that the steel supply end may be elastically constrained and is expected to continue, iron ore demand may not be poor, and the potential impact of the epidemic on overseas supply. It is expected that the iron ore price center in 22 years may be lower than that in 21 years, but there may still be support.
Risk hint: macroeconomic is not as expected, downstream demand is not as expected, and industry policy has changed.