Core ideas:
The company released the 2021 annual report, the company achieved income of 7.673 billion yuan, year-on-year-1.78%, return to the mother net profit of 948 million yuan, year-on-year-34.07%, deducted non-net profit of 961 million yuan, year-on-year-36.65%.
Volume and prices fell slightly throughout the year, with coal costs rising ton gross margin under pressure. The company's cement and clinker sales in 2021 were 23.54 million tons, down 0.8% from the same period last year, mainly due to the simultaneous decline in real estate and infrastructure demand in 2021, electricity production restrictions and so on. In 2021, the income per ton of cement and clinker business is 300 yuan,-0.2 yuan compared with the same period last year; the cost per ton is 215 yuan, which is + 27.4 yuan compared with the same period last year (of which the cost of fuel and power per ton is + 22.5 yuan), and the gross profit per ton is 85 yuan,-27.6 yuan compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company's ton income decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, while the ton cost rose slightly in the second half of the year, and the gross profit per ton for the whole year declined significantly.
The cost side is stable, and the net profit per ton has fallen back to the low level in recent years. 2021 tons period cost 31.9 yuan, year-on-year-0.1 yuan, the cost side remained stable; of which ton sales expenses 3.8 yuan, year-on-year + 0.7 yuan, ton management expenses 28.2 yuan, year-on-year-0.8 yuan, ton financial expenses-0.04 yuan, unchanged from the same period last year. Fair value change profit and loss and investment income increased by 60.35 million yuan compared with the same period last year, thickening the company's performance. The net profit of full caliber tons is 40.3 yuan, which is-20.3 yuan compared with the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. The company is the largest cement manufacturer in Gansu-Qinghai-Tibet region, accounting for 45% and 23% in Gansu and Qinghai respectively. Gansu-Qinghai region accounts for a high proportion of infrastructure demand. With steady growth in 2022, the company will benefit from the continuous promotion of major infrastructure projects in the region. From the supply point of view, there is little new production capacity in Gansu and Qinghai in recent years, strict implementation of off-peak production, a better supply and demand pattern to ensure the high prosperity of Gansu and Qinghai cement. In 2021, the dividend per share is 0.45 yuan, with a dividend yield of 4.5%. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 11.8,12.7 and 1.38 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation based on the latest closing price will be 6.6max 5.6 times, and the corresponding PB will be 0.86,0.78,0.71 times respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we will give the company PB a reasonable valuation of 1.2 times in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value of 14.02 yuan per share, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Demand from Gansu and Qinghai is lower than expected, and costs such as coal have risen sharply.