Main points of investment
Global leader of NCA precursors: the company is the global leader of NCA precursors, developed NCA ternary precursors in 2015, supplied NCA precursors in bulk to the Panasonic-Tesla, Inc. industrial chain in 2017, ranked first in China in 2018, and accounted for 63% of the company's revenue in 2020. It is expected that Tesla, Inc. demand will continue to be strong and short-term orders will not worry.
Relying on the advantages of NCA technology, cutting into NCM precursors to open the growth ceiling: the technical difficulty of NCA precursors is higher than that of NCM, and the coprecipitation of aluminum and nickel and cobalt is more difficult, which requires precise control of pH and other processes. Through years of technology accumulation, the company has solved the key problems such as NCA homogeneous coprecipitation, primary particle morphology control and particle size distribution regulation, and rapidly expanded NCM customers based on the versatility of NCA and NCM process equipment. NCM orders such as Beitri and Dangsheng Technology have been sold. The production capacity of precursors is planned to reach 60, 000 tons in 2022 and 110000 tons in 2023, respectively, and the corresponding shipments are expected to grow rapidly.
Layout recovery business helps to integrate, enhance cost competitiveness and profit elasticity: through the independently developed "extraction and non-extraction of nickel" hydrometallurgical technology, the company can extract high-purity nickel sulfate and other products from crude resources including waste batteries and nickel-containing scrap. Through the establishment of a joint venture with Veolia, a leader in resource recovery, the layout of 20, 000 tons of disassembly capacity of waste ternary lithium power batteries; at the same time, the company actively arranges lithium resource recycling, and the planned lithium hydroxide production capacity of subsidiary companies in 2023 is expected to reach 16000 tons. In the context of the high price of upstream resource goods, the recycling business is expected to contribute significant profit elasticity to the company.
Profit forecast: considering the equity incentive fee, the estimated return net profit from 21 to 23 years is 0.7,2.2 and 640 million yuan, corresponding to 164,52 and 18 times of PE.
Risk tips: new energy vehicle sales are not as expected, nickel project capacity release is not as expected, and raw material prices fluctuate greatly.