本文作者为来自美股投资网站（seekingalpha）的分析师（Isak Hirsch）
贸易争升战级导致京东股价下跌
过去几周，虽然京东股价跌幅高达14%，京东很可能只会在短期内受到全面贸易战的影响，长期投资者可以把这看作是一个投资的机会。如果贸易战不断升级，美元对人民币的升值很可能会继续下去。主要因为以下两点：
1．与中国大环境不同，京东是一个纯靠进口商品销售的电商企业。这意味着它的进口大于出口，因此货币贬值意味着进口将变得更加昂贵。问题的关键是京东的销售额到底有多少来自进口商品。根据其电子商务网站、访谈和研究报告显示，进口商品总额有20亿美元，约占总销售额的25%。京东拥有25%的市场份额，其收入几乎与跨境电商销售总额相当(746.8亿美元vs 764亿美元)。因此，美元升值不会对其收入产生任何明显的影响，尽管可能会拉低利润率。
2．第二个原因是货币风险。以美元为例，如果冲突不缓和，美元对人民币将继续上涨，美国存托凭证（美国商业银行为协助外国证券在美国交易而发行的一种可转让证书）将会贬值。美元对人民币的反弹将使人民币相对于美元贬值。如果冲突持续升级的话，这一对外汇组合比值很容易上升到7或更高。也就是说，股票将会贬值7%。因此，这也是一个小风险，至少对所有长期投资者来说是如此，因为从长期来看，人们对人民币的看法乐观(多数预测到2050年，中国经济将超过美国)。
消费潮流
随着中产阶级的不断壮大，跨境电子商务在中国迅速发展。中国生活水平的提高使外国产品更受欢迎。
来源：iResearch
2014年政府放松对网络零售的控制以来，进口销售迅速增长。京东首席执行官刘强东(Richard Liu)估计，在5至10年内，中国大城市的电子商务将有一半是进口商品。这一增长对中国电子商务的总体增长做出了巨大贡献。随着进口变得更加昂贵，这种增长将在贸易战中受到威胁，美国产品的受欢迎程度可能也会受到影响。此外，中国政府可能会倡议消费者不购买美国产品。
美国肉制品在中国尤其受欢迎。去年，京东宣布未来三年将购买价值12亿美元的美国牛肉和猪肉。7月6日，这项协议将受到中国首波总计34亿美元的关税浪潮的冲击，波及对象包括特朗普的主要支持者——美国农民。
利率隐患
汇率风险和美国产品的关税都将损害京东最大的优势之一——利润率。京东的利润率很低，如果成本增加，利润率很快就会变成负数。这将进一步拖累股价，看空者则表示京东永远不会盈利。然而，对于任何长期投资者来说，利润率并非决定性因素。目前，京东唯一关注的是收入和市场增长。在公司成熟并完全发挥其市场潜力之前，利润率并非主要考虑因素。
扩张计划受阻
贸易冲突推迟了京东2018年下半年向美国扩张的计划。在与沃尔玛(Walmart)和谷歌(Google)的合作中，刘强东对美国有远大的扩张计划，而现在将不得不暂停计划。在当前形势下，进入美国的风险太大，京东成为全球电子商务领导者的长期愿景将因此被推迟。
另一方面，特朗普计划限制中国企业投资美国科技公司的权限，认为此举会导致知识产权问题。这更让阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)等中国科技巨头担忧。这两家巨头最近在美国科技领域投入了大量资金，相比之下，京东在外国公司的投资不多，所投资的通常是物流或商业公司，因此对京东的影响不大。
机遇挑战并存
现在又到了机遇与挑战并存的时期。历史经验表明刘强东是一个善于抓住机遇的人。2003年，非典危机袭击中国，导致774人死亡，引发大面积恐慌，并让消费者待在家中。刘强东注意到了更高的电子商务需求，并决定进入这个行业。一年后，京东创立。
现在，美国和世界其他地区之间的贸易战影响巨大。然而，这可能会改善中欧关系。亚马逊在扩张过程中可能会遇到困难，给京东带来真正的竞争机会。欧洲电子商务行业仍然非常分散，亚马逊在欧洲最大的电子商务市场英国只有13%的市场份额。京东在欧洲大举投资，计划扩展物流网络。最近的谷歌合作伙伴关系使京东拥有前所未有的机会。
经济周期的威胁
分析师担心贸易战对经济的影响，尤其是中国经济。中国股市本周早些时候进入熊市，中国经济在经历了10年的强劲增长后，面临放缓的风险。大多数人认为，现阶段正处于市场周期的后期。当经济衰退时，京东也会受到冲击。然而，科技产业在经济衰退中往往表现不佳(见下图)，京东可能会受到比整体市场更大的打击。此外，成长型公司通常会受到冲击，因利润率容易成负值。如果贸易战继续并升级，未来12到16个月很有可能发生经济衰退。
（来源： Fidelity Investments (AART)）
京东股价已经下跌，并被压低一段时间，目前的股价比6月18日宣布谷歌合作计划时下跌了13%。在紧张局势升级的情况下，更多的负面影响将会涌现。然而，这场战争不太可能演变成一场旷日持久的贸易战。因为特朗普明白这会损害美国经济和他再次当选的机会。中国也明确表示有意避免贸易战，因为对其经济的影响将是毁灭性的。任何一方做出一些妥协，都可以结束冲突。
因此，京东股价下跌可能是短期的，并可能促成买入该股的绝佳时机。多数投资者认为，许多风险已经过去，因此，如果美国和中国之间的紧张关系缓和，短期内也应该会有收获。
该股目前的股价已经低得离谱，市盈率不到1，营收增长强劲。因此，京东虽然有短期下行风险，但实际上将大有可为，股价具有了很大吸引力。
（本文由富途资讯编译团队出品，编译/马正阳，校对/朱天安）
本文作者为来自美股投资网站（seekingalpha）的分析师（Isak Hirsch）
The writer is an analyst (Isak Hirsch) from seekingalpha
The rise of trade led to the fall of JD.com 's share price.
过去几周，虽然京东股价跌幅高达14%，京东很可能只会在短期内受到全面贸易战的影响，长期投资者可以把这看作是一个投资的机会。如果贸易战不断升级，美元对人民币的升值很可能会继续下去。主要因为以下两点：
In the past few weeks, although JD.com 's share price has fallen by as much as 14%JD.com is likely to be affected by a full-scale trade war only in the short term, and long-term investors can see this as an investment opportunity.. If the trade war escalates, the appreciation of the dollar against the yuan is likely to continue. It is mainly due to the following two points:
1．与中国大环境不同，京东是一个纯靠进口商品销售的电商企业。这意味着它的进口大于出口，因此货币贬值意味着进口将变得更加昂贵。问题的关键是京东的销售额到底有多少来自进口商品。根据其电子商务网站、访谈和研究报告显示，进口商品总额有20亿美元，约占总销售额的25%。京东拥有25%的市场份额，其收入几乎与跨境电商销售总额相当(746.8亿美元vs 764亿美元)。因此，美元升值不会对其收入产生任何明显的影响，尽管可能会拉低利润率。
1. Different from the general environment in China, JD.com is an e-commerce enterprise that sells purely imported goods. This means that its imports are larger than its exports, so a weaker currency means that imports will become more expensive. The crux of the question is how much of JD.com 's sales come from imported goods. According to its e-commerce website, interviews and research reports, imports totaled $2 billion, accounting for about 25 per cent of total sales. JD.com has a 25 per cent market share and his revenue is almost the same as total cross-border ecommerce sales ($74.68 billion vs $76.4 billion). As a result, the appreciation of the dollar will not have any significant impact on its income, although it may pull down profit margins.
2．第二个原因是货币风险。以美元为例，如果冲突不缓和，美元对人民币将继续上涨，美国存托凭证（美国商业银行为协助外国证券在美国交易而发行的一种可转让证书）将会贬值。美元对人民币的反弹将使人民币相对于美元贬值。如果冲突持续升级的话，这一对外汇组合比值很容易上升到7或更高。也就是说，股票将会贬值7%。因此，这也是一个小风险，至少对所有长期投资者来说是如此，因为从长期来看，人们对人民币的看法乐观(多数预测到2050年，中国经济将超过美国)。
2. The second reason is currency risk. In the case of the dollar, for example, if the conflict does not ease, the dollar will continue to rise against the renminbi, and American depositary receipts, a transferable certificate issued by American commercial banks to assist in the trading of foreign securities in the United States, will depreciate. The rebound of the dollar against the yuan will devalue the yuan against the dollar. If the conflict continues to escalate, the ratio of this pair of foreign exchange portfolios can easily rise to 7 or more. In other words, the stock will depreciate by 7%. So it is also a small risk, at least for all long-term investors, because in the long run, people are optimistic about the renminbi (most predict that China's economy will surpass that of the US by 2050).
随着中产阶级的不断壮大，跨境电子商务在中国迅速发展。中国生活水平的提高使外国产品更受欢迎。
With the growing middle class, cross-border e-commerce is developing rapidly in China. The improvement of living standards in China has made foreign products more popular.
2014年政府放松对网络零售的控制以来，进口销售迅速增长。京东首席执行官刘强东(Richard Liu)估计，在5至10年内，中国大城市的电子商务将有一半是进口商品。这一增长对中国电子商务的总体增长做出了巨大贡献。随着进口变得更加昂贵，这种增长将在贸易战中受到威胁，美国产品的受欢迎程度可能也会受到影响。此外，中国政府可能会倡议消费者不购买美国产品。
Import sales have grown rapidly since the government loosened its grip on online retailing in 2014. Richard Liu, chief executive of JD.com, estimates that within five to 10 years, half of e-commerce in China's big cities will be imported. This growth has made a great contribution to the overall growth of e-commerce in China. As imports become more expensive, this growth will be threatened in a trade war, and the popularity of US products may also be affected. In addition, the Chinese government may advise consumers not to buy American products.
美国肉制品在中国尤其受欢迎。去年，京东宣布未来三年将购买价值12亿美元的美国牛肉和猪肉。7月6日，这项协议将受到中国首波总计34亿美元的关税浪潮的冲击，波及对象包括特朗普的主要支持者——美国农民。
American meat products are especially popular in China. Last year, JD.com announced that he would buy $1.2 billion worth of American beef and pork over the next three years. On July 6, the deal will be hit by China's first wave of tariffs totaling $3.4 billion, including American farmers, Mr Trump's main supporters.
Interest rate hidden danger
汇率风险和美国产品的关税都将损害京东最大的优势之一——利润率。京东的利润率很低，如果成本增加，利润率很快就会变成负数。这将进一步拖累股价，看空者则表示京东永远不会盈利。然而，对于任何长期投资者来说，利润率并非决定性因素。目前，京东唯一关注的是收入和市场增长。在公司成熟并完全发挥其市场潜力之前，利润率并非主要考虑因素。
Exchange rate risk and tariffs on American products will hurt one of JD.com 's biggest strengths-profit margins. JD.com 's profit margin is very low, if the cost increases, the profit margin will soon become negative. This will be a further drag on share prices, while bears say JD.com will never make a profit. For any long-term investor, however, profit margins are not the determining factor. At present, JD.com 's only concern is income and market growth. Profit margins are not a major consideration until the company matures and reaches its full market potential.
The expansion plan is blocked.
贸易冲突推迟了京东2018年下半年向美国扩张的计划。在与沃尔玛(Walmart)和谷歌(Google)的合作中，刘强东对美国有远大的扩张计划，而现在将不得不暂停计划。在当前形势下，进入美国的风险太大，京东成为全球电子商务领导者的长期愿景将因此被推迟。
The trade conflict delayed JD.com 's plans to expand into the United States in the second half of 2018. In his partnership with Walmart Inc (Walmart) and Alphabet Inc-CL C (Google), Liu Qiangdong has ambitious expansion plans for the US, which will now have to be suspended. In the current situation, the risk of entering the United States is too great, and JD.com 's long-term vision of becoming a global e-commerce leader will be postponed.
另一方面，特朗普计划限制中国企业投资美国科技公司的权限，认为此举会导致知识产权问题。这更让阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)等中国科技巨头担忧。这两家巨头最近在美国科技领域投入了大量资金，相比之下，京东在外国公司的投资不多，所投资的通常是物流或商业公司，因此对京东的影响不大。
On the other hand, Trump plans to restrict Chinese companies' access to invest in US technology companies, arguing that the move will lead to intellectual property issues. This is even more worrying for Chinese tech giants such as BABA and Tencent. The two giants have recently invested a lot of money in US science and technology. In contrast, JD.com does not invest much in foreign companies, usually in logistics or commercial companies, so it has little impact on JD.com.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
现在又到了机遇与挑战并存的时期。历史经验表明刘强东是一个善于抓住机遇的人。2003年，非典危机袭击中国，导致774人死亡，引发大面积恐慌，并让消费者待在家中。刘强东注意到了更高的电子商务需求，并决定进入这个行业。一年后，京东创立。
Now it is time for both opportunities and challenges. Historical experience shows that Liu Qiangdong is a person who is good at seizing opportunities. In 2003, the SARS crisis hit China, killing 774 people, causing widespread panic and keeping consumers at home. Liu Qiangdong noticed the higher demand for e-commerce and decided to enter the industry. A year later, JD.com was founded.
现在，美国和世界其他地区之间的贸易战影响巨大。然而，这可能会改善中欧关系。亚马逊在扩张过程中可能会遇到困难，给京东带来真正的竞争机会。欧洲电子商务行业仍然非常分散，亚马逊在欧洲最大的电子商务市场英国只有13%的市场份额。京东在欧洲大举投资，计划扩展物流网络。最近的谷歌合作伙伴关系使京东拥有前所未有的机会。
Now, the trade war between the United States and the rest of the world has a huge impact. However, this could improve China-EU relations. Amazon.Com Inc may encounter difficulties in the process of expansion, bringing real competitive opportunities to JD.com. The European e-commerce industry is still very fragmented. Amazon.Com Inc has only 13% market share in the UK, Europe's largest e-commerce market. JD.com has invested heavily in Europe and plans to expand the logistics network. The recent Alphabet Inc-CL C partnership gives JD.com an unprecedented opportunity.
The threat of economic cycle
分析师担心贸易战对经济的影响，尤其是中国经济。中国股市本周早些时候进入熊市，中国经济在经历了10年的强劲增长后，面临放缓的风险。大多数人认为，现阶段正处于市场周期的后期。当经济衰退时，京东也会受到冲击。然而，科技产业在经济衰退中往往表现不佳(见下图)，京东可能会受到比整体市场更大的打击。此外，成长型公司通常会受到冲击，因利润率容易成负值。如果贸易战继续并升级，未来12到16个月很有可能发生经济衰退。
Analysts are worried about the impact of the trade war on the economy, especially China's economy. China's stock market entered a bear market earlier this week, and the Chinese economy is at risk of slowing after a decade of strong growth. Most people believe that the current stage is in the late stages of the market cycle. When the economy is in recession, JD.com will also be hit. However, the technology industry tends to perform poorly in recessions (see chart below), and JD.com may be hit harder than the market as a whole. In addition, growth companies are usually hit because profit margins tend to be negative. If the trade war continues and escalates, a recession is likely to occur in the next 12 to 16 months.
（来源： Fidelity Investments (AART)）
(source: Fidelity Investments (AART))
京东股价已经下跌，并被压低一段时间，目前的股价比6月18日宣布谷歌合作计划时下跌了13%。在紧张局势升级的情况下，更多的负面影响将会涌现。然而，这场战争不太可能演变成一场旷日持久的贸易战。因为特朗普明白这会损害美国经济和他再次当选的机会。中国也明确表示有意避免贸易战，因为对其经济的影响将是毁灭性的。任何一方做出一些妥协，都可以结束冲突。
JD.com 's share price has fallen and has been depressed for some time, and it is down 13% from when Alphabet Inc-CL C's cooperation plan was announced on June 18. As tensions escalate, more negative effects will emerge. However, the war is unlikely to turn into a protracted trade war. Because Trump understands that it will hurt the US economy and his chances of being re-elected. China has also made it clear that it intends to avoid a trade war because the impact on its economy will be devastating. Any compromise made by either side can end the conflict.
因此，京东股价下跌可能是短期的，并可能促成买入该股的绝佳时机。多数投资者认为，许多风险已经过去，因此，如果美国和中国之间的紧张关系缓和，短期内也应该会有收获。
As a result, the fall in JD.com 's share price may be short-term and may lead to an excellent time to buy the stock. Most investors believe that many of the risks are over, so there should be gains in the short term if tensions between the US and China ease.
该股目前的股价已经低得离谱，市盈率不到1，营收增长强劲。因此，京东虽然有短期下行风险，但实际上将大有可为，股价具有了很大吸引力。
The stock is already ridiculously low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 1 and strong revenue growth. Therefore, although JD.com has short-term downside risks, it will actually have a bright future, and the stock price will be very attractive.
（本文由富途资讯编译团队出品，编译/马正阳，校对/朱天安）
(this article is produced by Futu Information compilation team, compiled / Ma Zhengyang, proofread / Zhu Tianan)
