Goldman Sachs Group, the "standard bearer of commodities" who advocates the arrival of the supercycle, pointed out in the latest research newspaper.Given Russia's important role in global energy supply, the global economy may soon face one of the biggest energy supply shocks in history.

Goldman Sachs Group said that while western countries wanted to avoid these results, the sanctions situation could prompt Russia to reduce its current account surplus and energy exports. Current data show that more than half of Russia's crude oil was not sold in March, in line with the huge discount on Russian crude oil to Brent crude.

If this trend continues, it will mean a drop of 3 million b / d in Russian seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products, the fifth largest monthly interruption since World War II, second only to the Arab oil embargo (1973), the Iranian Revolution (1978), the Iran-Iraq War (1980) and the Iraq-Kuwait War (1990).

Goldman Sachs Group expects crude oil supply to eventually respond, but it will be a politically driven process that could come from the release of strategic oil reserves and increased production by core OPEC members. And sanctions on oil imports from Iran and Venezuela may be lifted.

Goldman Sachs Group warned that the price-triggered increase in shale oil supply was not an appropriate rebalancing mechanism to deal with the current large and direct supply shocks, given the lag of the increase in capital expenditure and the months it will take to drill and bring new wells online.

While measures can help offset the gap in Russian oil imports, they will leave the global oil market unbuffered and still need to be undermined by higher prices, which will eventually lead to a recession. Because of drilling time, overall caution among producers and tight services, shale supply will initially respond mildly to oil prices.

Looking to the future, Goldman Sachs Group said that the uncertainty about how to resolve the conflict and oil shortage is unprecedented. Goldman Sachs Group established three scenarios (from resuming exports in the coming months to a continued 2/3 decline in Russian seaborne exports) to predict oil prices. Even assuming the release of crude oil reserves and OPEC help, the data show that oil prices will be between $115 and $175 a barrel in 2022.

With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still intensifying and western sanctions escalating, Goldman Sachs Group said his subjective probability weighting of these potential outcomes expected an interruption of 1.6 million b / d of crude oil under the benchmark.Goldman Sachs Group raised his spot price forecast for Brent crude to $135a barrel in 2022 and $115b in 2023, up from previous forecasts of $98 and $105a barrel, respectively.

Goldman Sachs Group reiterated his view that long-term oil prices are still seriously undervalued and Goldman Sachs Group continues to recommend long Brent crude due in December 2023 as a hedging tool for oil consumers and macro investors.

On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden announced an energy ban on Russia, banning US imports of oil, liquefied natural gas and coal from Russia, according to CCTV news. This further aggravates the tight situation of oil price supply.

In fact, some analysts believe that whether or not the US government issues a formal ban on Russian oil imports, due to the active avoidance of Russian energy by market participants, "the ban on Russian crude oil imports has actually existed for a long time."

Except for crude oil.Goldman Sachs Group also raised his forecast for grain prices because it faced the "worst shock" since the 1970s.Goldman Sachs Group said that with the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia disrupting supplies from the Black Sea region, grain prices are bound to jump further and there is obvious upward pressure on the global grain curve. New crop contracts lag behind contracts in recent months. Shipping disruptions, soaring purchase costs and concerns about the outlook for planting in Ukraine in the new season are set to hit the global grain market hard.

Goldman Sachs Group believes that traders should reduce their bets that the US will intervene and meet global grain demand. Acreage in the United States is close to historical records, where farmers have little room to increase their acreage further, and fertiliser is so expensive that there is no simple way to improve the harvest. In addition, the war could disrupt corn sowing and winter wheat harvesting in Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs Group remains bullish on new crop contracts for cotton, corn and soyabeans, which could rise sharply in the event of adverse weather in the US or supply disruptions in Ukraine. Prices of new crops such as corn and cotton are expected to rise the most and are expected to follow the rise in wheat with lower input costs. Goldman Sachs Group raised his forecast for corn, soyabeans and wheat prices. Corn could reach $7.75 a bushel by summer, soybeans could reach $17.50, and wheat is expected to reach $12.50.