Consumption upgrading and superimposed backflow promotes the strong growth of extravagant consumption, and Hangzhou Mansion enjoys dividends.
In the short term, COVID-19 's epidemic accelerates the return of luxury consumption; in the medium to long term, consumption upgrading has a certain support for the growth of the domestic luxury market. Hangzhou Building, a subsidiary of Hangzhou Xiebai, locates high-end boutique department stores, which forms differential competition with traditional retail, and achieves marginal improvement from the three-dimensional point of view of shopping malls, commodities and customers: 1) shopping malls: the Hangzhou Building has been adjusted for three years from 2019 to 2021. The flat efficiency has been significantly improved; 2) goods: Hangzhou Mansion continues to make efforts in the concentration of brands, forming an absolute head lineup. In 2021, Hangzhou Mansion continues to introduce nearly 60 new stores. 3) customer base: Hangzhou Mansion has high net worth customers with high stickiness, and the number of active customers continues to grow. In 2022, Hangzhou Mansion will build a new membership system, which will transform from customer service to member operation. Xiebai ushered in adjustment and upgrading, investment in emerging industries gradually entered the harvest period, Xiebai transformed city Olympic cuisine, relying on location, brand, synergy advantages, to achieve a turnaround. Xiebai City Orchard is located at the core of the commercial difficulties of the West Lake in Hangzhou, bringing together more than 400 brands of new retail, new technology and new life, focusing on the layout of new retail experience stores, which is expected to improve competitiveness and cooperate with Hangzhou Mansion to release development potential. While deeply ploughing the main retail business, in order to meet the diversified needs of customers, the company has laid out the whole medical care, Yuesheng Sports and the Baiqiu network of online operators to create a "retail + service ecological map" to increase customer stickiness and further empower the main business.
) Investment advice
The epidemic catalyses the return of high-end consumption, and Hangzhou Mansion goes against the trend and becomes the core driving force. After the weakening of the epidemic, in the context of continuous consumption upgrading, the company is expected to continue to improve turf efficiency to achieve growth by virtue of a new round of adjustment. Xiebai transformation and upgrading, business is expected to improve. The comprehensive development of diversified empowerment is expected to play a synergistic effect. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.47,0.58,0.68 yuan per share respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be 15,13 and 11 times respectively. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Consumption escalation is not as expected; the impact of the epidemic weakens, outbound travel is liberalized, and part of the return demand flows out again; market competition intensifies, business growth is lower than expected; under the impact of online retail, the transformation is not as expected.