U.S. natgas futures rise over 4% on spike in European prices
U.S. natgas futures rise over 4% on spike in European prices
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery rose 18.2 cents, or 4.6%, to $4.123 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:08 a.m. EST (1508 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Feb. 8.Feb 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose by more than 4% on Monday after a 10% spike in European gas prices on expectations that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will remain near record highs as long as there is a possibility of Russia invading Ukraine and cutting gas supplies to the rest of Europe.
路透2月14日-美國天然氣期貨週一上漲逾4%，此前歐洲天然氣價格大漲10%，因市場預期只要俄羅斯有可能入侵烏克蘭並切斷對歐洲其他國家的天然氣供應，美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口就將保持在紀錄高位附近。
U.S. prices also gained support from forecasts for more U.S. demand over the next two weeks than previously expected despite a milder than normal weather outlook for the rest of February, and as output continues to recover from cold-weather related reductions over the past month.
儘管2月剩餘時間的天氣前景比正常情況下温和，而且產量繼續從過去一個月與寒冷天氣相關的減少中復甦，但未來兩週美國需求將高於此前的預期，這也為美國價格提供了支撐。
Gas futures in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 jumped 10% on Monday, putting prices about seven times above U.S. futures.
歐洲天然氣期貨TRNLTTFMc1週一大漲10%，價格較美國期貨高出約七倍。
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery rose 18.2 cents, or 4.6%, to $4.123 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:08 a.m. EST (1508 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Feb. 8.
截至上午10點08分，3月份交割的近月天然氣期貨NGC1上漲18.2美分，至每百萬英熱單位(MmBtu)4.123美元，漲幅4.6%。美國東部時間(格林尼治標準時間1508GMT)，該合約有望創下2月8日以來的最高收盤點位。
Gas futures traded around $27 per mmBtu in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $25 in Asia JKMc1 .
天然氣期貨在歐洲的交易價格約為每mmBtu 27美元，在亞洲的交易價格約為每mmBtu 25美元。
Since the start of the year, however, the U.S. market has focused more on changes in U.S. weather and domestic supply and demand, rather than what is happening around the world. So far in 2022, U.S. gas followed European prices about a third of the time versus two-thirds during the fourth quarter of 2021.
然而，自今年年初以來，美國市場更多地關注美國天氣和國內供需的變化，而不是世界各地正在發生的事情。2022年到目前為止，美國天然氣價格跟隨歐洲價格上漲的比例約為三分之一，而2021年第四季度這一比例為三分之二。
But, traders said, a 10% jump in European prices was hard to ignore, noting demand for U.S. LNG will remain strong so long as global gas prices trade well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe.
但交易員們説，歐洲天然氣價格上漲10%是很難忽視的，他們指出，只要全球天然氣價格遠高於美國期貨，對美國液化天然氣的需求就會保持強勁，因為世界各地的公用事業公司都在爭先恐後地搶購貨物，以滿足亞洲激增的需求，並補充歐洲的低庫存。
That is even more true now with heigtened concerns Russia could invade Ukraine. If Russia invades, Europe and the United States would likely impose sanctions on Moscow, which could prompt Russia to cut gas supplies to Europe. Russia provides around 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021. NG/GB
隨着人們對俄羅斯可能入侵烏克蘭的擔憂加劇，這一點現在更加正確。如果俄羅斯入侵，歐洲和美國可能會對莫斯科實施制裁，這可能會促使俄羅斯切斷對歐洲的天然氣供應。俄羅斯提供了歐洲約30%-40%的天然氣供應，2021年總計約為16.3bcfd。NG/GB
Over the weekend, there were tankers loading at all seven U.S. export plants for the first time ever after Venture Global last week got approval from federal regulators to load the first LNG cargo at its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant in Louisiana. A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Feb. 7 and likely will take the plant's first cargo in coming days.
上週末，在Venture Global上週獲得聯邦監管機構的批准，在其位於路易斯安那州的Calcasieu Pass LNG工廠裝載第一批LNG貨物後，所有七家美國出口工廠都出現了油輪裝載。一艘油輪於2月7日抵達卡爾卡西厄，可能會在未來幾天內裝載工廠的第一批貨物。
The amount of gas flowing to all U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd, as liquefaction trains at Calcasieu enter service.
隨着Calcasieu的液化列車投入使用，2月份到目前為止，流向美國所有液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣平均每天126億立方英尺(Bcfd)，將超過1月份創下的12.4bcfd的月度紀錄。
But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has capacity to turn about 12.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG. The rest of the fuel flowing to LNG facilities is used to run plant equipment.
但無論全球價格上漲多高，美國每天只能將約124億立方英尺(Bcfd)的天然氣轉化為液化天然氣。流向液化天然氣設施的其餘燃料用於運行工廠設備。
Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.4 bcfd so far in February as wells in several producing regions froze.
數據提供商Refinitiv表示，由於幾個產區的油井凍結，美國較低48個州的平均產量從去年12月創紀錄的97.3 bcfd降至1月的94.0 bcfd和2月迄今的92.4 bcfd。
On a daily basis, however, output soared to 95.2 bcfd on Friday, its highest since Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. Output has been rising almost daily since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021.
然而，根據Refinitiv的數據，上週五，日產量飆升至95.2 bcfd，為1月1日以來的最高水平。自2月4日在一場冬季風暴中跌至86.3 bcfd以來，產量幾乎每天都在上升，這是自2021年2月以來的最低水平。
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
截至一年前的一週-五年前
Feb. Feb. 4 Feb. 11 average
2月4日2月11日平均
11(Forecast) (Actual) Feb. 11
11日(預測)(實際)2月11日
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -202 -222 -227 -154
美國每週天然氣儲存變化(Bcf)：-202-222-227-154
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,899 2,101 2,315 2,162
美國天然氣儲存總量(Bcf)：1,899 2,101 2,315,162
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -12.2% -9.3%
美國總存儲容量與5年平均水平相比-12.2%-9.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
全球天然氣基準期貨(美元/mmBtu)本月前一天五年前一天
Last Year Average Average
去年平均水平
2021 (2017-2021)
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub NGc1 4.14 3.94 2.92 3.73 2.89
Henry Hub NGC1 4.14 3.94 2.92 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 27.24 24.77 6.14 16.04 7.49
所有權轉讓機制(TTF)TRNLTTFMc1 27.24 24.77 6.14 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 24.57 24.80 7.36 18.00 8.95
日韓記分員(JKM)JKMc1 24.57 24.80 7.36 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
制熱(HDD)、冷卻(CDD)和總(TDD)度天數
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
兩週合計預測當日前一天前一年10年30年
Norm Norm
範數範數
U.S. GFS HDDs 353 366 454 383 380
美國GFS硬盤驅動器353 366 454 383 380
U.S. GFS CDDs 6 5 8 8 6
美國GFS CDDS 6 5 8 8 6
U.S. GFS TDDs 359 371 462 391 386
美國政府飛行服務隊TDDS 359 371 462 391 386
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Refinitiv美國每週GFS供需預測
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
前一週當前周下週本週五年期
Last Year Average For
去年平均每年
Month
月份
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
美國供應(Bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 91.3 94.9 95.2 76.1 83.3
美國較低48乾產量91.3 94.9 95.2 76.1 83.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.3 9.0 9.0 10.7 8.9
美國從加拿大進口9.3 9.0 9.0 10.7 8.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2
美國液化天然氣進口量0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 100.8 104.0 104.2 87.5 92.4
美國總供應量100.8 104.0 104.2 87.592.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
美國需求(Bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.7
美國對加拿大出口2.4 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.4 5.1 5.5 4.4 4.8
美國對墨西哥出口5.4 5.1 5.5 4.4 4.8
U.S. LNG Exports 12.5 12.7 12.3 5.0 4.7
美國液化天然氣出口12.5 12.7 12.3 5.0 4.7
U.S. Commercial 17.9 16.7 14.9 22.5 15.6
美國商業銀行17.9 16.7 14.9 22.5 15.6
U.S. Residential 30.1 27.1 24.5 39.5 26.1
美國住宅30.1 27.1 24.5 39.5 26.1
U.S. Power Plant 28.2 24.2 23.7 33.8 26.3
美國發電廠28.2 24.2 23.7 33.8 26.3
U.S. Industrial 25.7 25.1 24.4 27.5 24.5
美國工業25.7 25.1 24.4 27.5 24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
美國植物燃料4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1
美國管道分佈2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
美國車用燃料0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 109.4 100.6 94.7 130.8 100.3
美國總消費量109.4 100.6 94.7 130.8 100.3
Total U.S. Demand 129.7 121.4 115.6 142.1 112.5
美國總需求129.7 121.4 115.6 142.1 112.5
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
美國每週發電量百分比(按燃料計算)-EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
截至一週截至一週
Feb 18 Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28 Jan 21
2月18日2月11日2月4日1月28日1月21日
Wind 11 12 11 9 11
風11 12 11 9 11
Solar 3 3 2 2 2
太陽3 3 2 2 2
Hydro 7 7 6 7 7
海德魯7 7 6 7 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
其他2 2 2
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1
石油1 1 1
Natural Gas 31 33 33 35 33
天然氣31 33 33 35 33
Coal 23 23 25 26 25
煤炭23 23 25 26 25
Nuclear 22 20 19 19 19
核22 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
SNL美國天然氣次日價格(每mmBtu$)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
中心當日前一天
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.04 4.03
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.04 4.03
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 11.64 4.46
Transco Z6紐約NG-CG-NY-SNL 11.64 4.46
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.25 4.39
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.25 4.39
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.50 3.30
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.50 3.30
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.75 3.63
芝加哥城門NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.75 3.63
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 13.75 3.93
阿爾岡昆城門NG-CG-BS-SNL 13.75 3.93
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.80 3.78
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.80 3.78
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.40 3.40
Waha集線器NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.40 3.40
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 2.97 3.00
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 2.97 3.00
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
SNL美國次日電價(每兆瓦時$)
Hub Current Day
集線器當日
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 40.50 45.50
新英格蘭EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 40.50 45.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 29.25 22.25
PJM West El-PK-PJMW-SNL 29.25 22.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 42.00 25.25
ERCOT North El-PK-ERTN-SNL 42.00 25.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 27.75 29.25
MID C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 27.75 29.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 32.50 37.75
帕洛維德El-PK-PLVD-SNL 32.50 37.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 33.00 38.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 33.00 38.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Alexander Smith)
(Scott DiSavino報道；Alexander Smith編輯)
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/ For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651 NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651 ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391 NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
(對於Refinitiv，請在Eikon搜索欄中鍵入Energy，然後轉到GAS下拉列表和北美下拉列表或參見：cpurl：//apps.cp./cms/？pageid=USA-gas for Interactive Map，請在Reuters Eikon終端左上角的框中鍵入‘Interactive Map’。有關Baker Hughes鑽機計數的圖表，請參閲：有關次日SNL美國天然氣價格，請參閲：0#SNL-NG瞭解次日SNL美國電價，請參閲：0#SNL-PWR瞭解美國天然氣價格和存儲民意調查，請參閲：NGAS/Poll for U.S.Nuclear Power Out，請參閲：Nuke/瞭解美國西北水電報告，請參閲：NWRFC有關美國/加拿大天然氣鑽機數量與Henry Hub期貨價格的信息，請參閲：有關美國天然氣速度指南，請參閲：USGAS以瞭解美國電力速度指南參見：USPOWER確定CFTC管理的貨幣淨頭寸加(NYMEX Henry Hub期權和期貨組合3023651MNET)加上(ICE Henry Hub期權和期貨組合3023391MNET除以4)加上(NYMEX Henry Hub掉期期權和期貨組合303565BMNET除以4)加上(NYMEX Henry Hub倒數第二個天然氣掉期303565CMNET除以4)NYMEX Henry Hub期權和期貨組合0#3CFTC0236
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
