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油价涨涨涨!布油站上110美元,如何把握投资机会?

Oil prices are rising! How to seize investment opportunities with 110 US dollars at the gas station?

富途資訊 ·  Mar 2, 2022 10:29

Crude oil prices soared further to the highest level since 2014 as the IEA's efforts to release crude oil reserves were not enough to allay fears of supply disruptions in Russia.

On Wednesday, oil prices continued to rise sharply overnight, with $110 at gas stations, the highest level since 2014, and US Oil approaching $110.Traders are betting that oil prices will continue to rise at the biggest premium in more than two years.Comprehensive sanctions on Russian oil exports could push oil prices above $120 a barrel in the coming months, according to energy analysts and traders.

The release of reserves is a drop in the bucket, there is no hope for OPEC+ to increase production, fears of supply disruptions in Russia and poor progress in Iran's nuclear talks have all added to concerns about crude oil supply shortages.

Goldman Sachs Group said investors were still too optimistic about the oil price risks posed by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and about the ability of the war to slow the pace of monetary tightening.

Goldman Sachs Group, a strategist led by Dominic Wilson, wrote in the latest report:

In terms of oil prices, the market may have underestimated the risk of a supply crunch, which remains a major risk of ongoing conflict-so the 'risk premium' here is likely to be greater.In addition, we believe that the market is beginning to exaggerate the impact of this conflict on the Fed's policy trajectory.

Prior to the escalation of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United StatesGoldman Sachs Group has raised the price forecast of Brent crude oil to 115USD / bbl within a month.It also said that the prices of oil, natural gas, nickel, wheat and corn continued to rise affected by the situation in Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs Group said that unless there is a breakthrough in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, commodity prices will rise sharply.

Because we believe that the disruption of demand is the only important factor affecting the balance, Russia is a major exporter of most commodities, which already face extremely tight inventory levels and low levels of spare capacity.

Goldman Sachs Group said that if the average daily oil demand falls by 20-4 million barrels a day, corresponding to a reduction in Russian exports in a month, this means that the short-term price of oil will rise to 110-120 US dollars per barrel.

What are the investment opportunities under high oil prices?

Under the high oil price, what are the specific investment opportunities in the US stock market?

  • ETF related to oil and gas in US stocks

So far this year, rising oil prices have driven energy-related stocks to perform strongly, so far$SPDR Energy Index ETF (XLE.US) $Increased by more than 27% over the same period.$SPDR S & P 500 index ETF (SPY.US) $It's down more than 9%.Us crude Oil Fund ETF (USO.US) $An annual increase of more than 32%S & P Oil and Gas production Index ETF-SPDR (XOP.US) $It rose by more than 24%.

Us crude Oil Fund ETF (USO.US) $

The US crude oil fund ETF (USO.US) tracks stock prices through the WTI stock price index of the New York Stock Exchange.

$SPDR Energy Index ETF (XLE.US) $

The SPDR Energy Index ETF (XLE.US) is designed to provide an effective representative of the energy industry in the S & P 500. The index includes companies from the following industries: oil, natural gas and consumable fuels; and energy equipment and services.

  • Us traditional energy stocks

$Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.US) $

Exxon Mobil Corp is the world's largest energy company, mainly engaged in the exploration, production, transportation and sales of crude oil and natural gas. Exxon Mobil Corp is also engaged in the manufacture, transportation and sale of petroleum products, the sale of commercial petrochemical products and a series of special products.

$Chevron Corp (CVX.US) $

Chevron Corp is a multinational energy company covering all aspects of the oil, gas and geothermal industries in more than 180 countries. Chevron Corp is engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and production, hydrocarbon refining, marketing and transportation, chemical manufacturing and sales and power generation.

$ConocoPhillips (COP.US) $

ConocoPhillips is a world-renowned multinational energy company with core businesses including oil and gas exploration, production, processing and marketing, as well as the production and sales of chemicals and plastic products. ConocoPhillips is famous for its deep-sea exploration and production technology, reservoir management and development, 3D seismic technology and high-grade petroleum coke improvement technology.

ConocoPhillips bought Royal Dutch Shell's West Texas assets for $9.5 billion on Sept. 20, making it the second-largest oil and gas producer in the United States, a big investment that marks a shift in strategy. ConocoPhillips bought rival Concho Resources for $13.3 billion nine months ago.

$BP P.L.C. (BP.US) $

BP P.L.C. is one of the largest private oil companies in the world, mainly engaged in oil and gas exploration and development, oil refining, natural gas sales and power generation, oil retail and transportation, and the production and sale of petrochemical products. In addition, the company's business in solar power generation is growing.

Carbon trading accounts for about 5 per cent of BP P.L.C. 's trading activities, and has contributed between $50 million and $100m in annual trading profits over the past two years, according to people familiar with the business. BP P.L.C. 's overall annual trading profit over the past two years has been between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, it said.

$EOG Energy (EOG.US) $

EOG Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the United States, with proven reserves in the United States, Canada, Trinidad and the North Sea of the United Kingdom. It produces oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, Tobago and China. EOG Energy has proven reserves of more than 3.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, mainly in the United States.

Vanguard Natural Resources (PXD.US) $

Pioneer Natural Resources is a company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, as well as integrated services including oil and gas technology, royalties, well services and water management.

$Marathon Oil (MRO.US) $

Marathon Petroleum is an oil refining company mainly engaged in the refining, marketing and transportation of petroleum products, petrochemicals and gasoline, which are mainly sold in Marathon brand outlets and its retail subsidiary Speedway LLC. Marathon operates 16 refineries in the United States with a crude oil capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day.

In addition, there are other areas of concern.$Petrochina Company Limited (PTR.US) $$Schlumberger (SLB.US) $$Halliburton (HAL.US) $$INPLAY OIL CORP (IPOOF.US) $$Oasis Petroleum (OAS.US) $$Marathon crude Oil (MPC.US) $$Phillips 66 (PSX.US) $$Valero Energy (VLO.US) $$Baker Hughes (BKR.US) $Wait for individual stocks.

In the oil and gas integration industry sector of Futuo Niuniu, more than 80% of the stocks have risen more than 10% year-to-date, and Exxon Mobil Corp's annual increase is much more than 30%, Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras and$Cenovus Energy (CVE.US) $Wait for an annual increase of about 30%.

Market source: Futu Niuniu-US stocks-plate-oil and gas integration

  • Other opportunities

In addition, according to Societe Generale Securities research, in previous periods of sharp rise in oil prices, the performance of industries benefiting from inflation is also more eye-catching. Such as the upstream raw material plate of steel, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and downstream consumer goods food and beverage and so on. Because sharp increases in crude oil prices tend to be accompanied by economic recovery and rising inflation, sectors benefiting from inflation tend to perform better. Among them, food and beverages, iron and steel, and petroleum and petrochemical rose by 100% during the previous surge in crude oil prices, with an average rise and fall of more than 25%.

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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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