Event: on January 29, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to realize net profit of-13 to-1.5 billion yuan and non-net profit of-11.5 to-1.35 billion yuan for shareholders of listed companies in 21 years.
The real estate sector dragged down the company's performance and net profit fell sharply. The main reason for the change in the company's current performance is that the real estate business sector is expected to achieve a net profit of about-1.7 billion to-1.9 billion in 2021, affecting the overall profit. The loss in the company's real estate business sector is mainly due to the impairment loss of assets and credit impairment of part of the inventory and other receivables of the company's subsidiary Guokai Oriental Town Development Investment Co., Ltd. During the reporting period, as well as the impact of increased financial expenses and changes in the fair value of investment real estate during the reporting period.
Continue to focus on the main business of buying and selling grain and oil, and the real estate divestiture may be light. The company's core main modern agriculture and health food industry operation is stable, the company will continue to focus on the core main business development, relying on agricultural science and technology research and development and food research and development, expand agricultural high value-added industries, improve the company's overall performance.
In view of the current situation of the real estate development sector, the company will try its best to invigorate and peel off the existing land assets, recover the project investment, speed up the realization of assets and reduce losses. We expect land and real estate development to account for a further decline in revenue in the future, making it light.
After ten years of deep ploughing, the Oriental Granary has built the development model of the whole industry chain of modern agriculture. The company makes full use of the resource advantages of major grain provinces in Northeast China and the geographical advantages of important commodity grain bases in the country to extensively carry out trade operations such as north-south grain transportation, rotation of medium grain reserves, purchase and sale of grain and oil, to ensure the effective supply of agricultural products. Corn is the main category of the company's agricultural products. In the case of rising prices, the company's corn inventory is sufficient, relying on a sound warehousing and logistics system, which can ensure downstream customers' demand for corn raw materials. Benefiting from the continued high prices of agricultural products, it is expected to rise in volume and prices.
We continued to promote the research and development of agricultural science and technology products, and the first phase of high moisture plant meat project was completed and put into production in the third quarter.
In December 2020, the company signed a cooperation agreement on high moisture plant meat production project with the people's Government of Fangzheng County, Heilongjiang Province, and the first phase of the project was officially completed and put into production on July 30, 2021.
The first phase of the project annual production and processing capacity of 5000 tons, has formed a product line, including plant protein meat dumplings, crispy meat, meatballs, meat stuffing and other rich categories. In the first half of 2021, the company accelerated the research and development and production technology of plant meat, and has obtained and is applying for a total of 12 patents. At present, it has developed 3 shapes of high moisture plant meat base products, 12 kinds of high moisture plant meat terminal products, and 5 kinds of plant meat products on the first phase.
As of August 2021, the company's high-moisture plant meat project has been put into production. The company accurately grasp the core of the industrial chain, master advanced extrusion technology and equipment, in which the mature use of high-wet process is now in a leading position in the industry, the future is expected to lead the development of the domestic artificial meat industry.
Profit Forecast: 21H1 We forecast a net profit of 2.66 million yuan in 2021-2023.
However, as the company's performance forecast is lower than expected, we downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 168.74pm in 2021-2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, 10.26%, 13.78%, and a net profit of-13.15, 21936 million, and an increase of-646.96%, 116.66, 53.52% and 0.09 respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: food safety, raw material price fluctuation risk, real estate business activation and divestiture is not as expected, artificial meat development is less than expected, performance forecast is the preliminary measurement results, the specific financial data shall prevail in accordance with the company disclosure announcement.