CITIC released a research report on the food and beverage industry, saying that since 2022, due to the epidemic and weak overall consumption and other factors, the share price of the food and beverage sector has been lacklustre, Zhitong Financial APP learned. Comprehensive subdivision of the sector prosperity and stock price performance, the main line of investment in the food and beverage industry: 1) the logic of the industry is expected to continue to be realized, the first is the beer and dairy products sector, optimistic that the beer industry will continue to be high-end, recommendChina Resources Beer (00291)、Tsing Tao Beer (00168)、Chongqing Beer (600132.SH)、Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ)Be optimistic that the profit inflection point of dairy duo has arrived, recommendYili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH)、China Mengniu Dairy (02319). 2) driven by the logic of price increase, pay attention to the higher-than-expected flexible opportunities such as the reduction of raw material costs and price transmission, and recommendAngel yeast (600298.SH)、Negotiate Food (002557.SZ)、Fuling mustard (002507.SZ). 3) large items & driven by channel expansion, pay attention to the logical cashing of growth stocks and the possibility of exceeding expectations, recommendedDongpeng Beverage (605499.SH)、Likao Foods (300973.SZ). 4) pay attention to the improvement of the epidemic in 2022, which is expected to bring investment opportunities to rely on catering channels and independent companies, and recommendAnjing Food (603345.SH)、Tasteless food (603517.SH)。
CITIC's main points are as follows:
Dairy products: the demand in January may be off to a good start, the pressure on the cost of raw milk has been significantly alleviated, and the valuation is at the margin of safety, so it is firmly recommended.
The demand growth rate of 2021Q4 liquid milk is increasing month by month, and it is expected that the growth rate of liquid milk in the leading dairy enterprises in a single quarter is expected to accelerate to a high single growth rate. 2022M1 Spring Festival reserve sales are good, the demand for white milk is strong, and the leading dairy enterprises are expected to achieve a liquid milk growth rate of close to 20%, which is expected to get off to a good start. The increase in raw milk prices further narrowed to less than 1%, which is expected to be flat year-on-year for the whole year, and the year-on-year cost pressure significantly alleviated to support the expansion of gross sales margin of dairy enterprises. Tight balance between supply and demand of raw milk-after the epidemic dividend of white milk continues, it is expected that the cost of dairy enterprises will continue to contract in 2021, offline management and control of KA and promotional investment, online expenses remain robust, and stable contraction of rates will further support the rise of net interest rates of dairy enterprises. Yili, Mengniu current dynamic PE less than 24 times, in a reasonable low level, the margin of safety, continue to recommend.
Beer: high-end is still the main tone in the future. With the gradual landing of the performance in 2021, it is recommended to choose the machine layout.
The output of the 2021H2 beer industry also fell by 0.1%, of which Q4 increased by 12.3%. Branch company1)China ResourcesUnder the pressure of the 2021H2 epidemic, sales are under pressure, revenue is expected to increase slightly under the pull of ton price, and profit margins are affected by costs and brand promotion fees.2)Green beer2021Q4 expects to achieve a net profit of about-900 million yuan, with an enlarged loss over the same period last year, mainly due to changes in the cost of raw materials, sponsorship of the Winter Olympic Games and depreciation and amortization expenses.3) heavy beerThe growth rate of 2021Q4 sales has declined due to the epidemic and the adjustment of the price system, but the profit is expected to turn around under the more flexible cost.4) Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (01876)The Chinese region of 2021Q4 performed well under the low base, while the Korean region was still affected by the prevention and control of the epidemic.
Looking to the future, the bank expects the growth rate of industry sales in 2022 to show high before and after, low single digits year-on-year growth for the whole year, price increase-structural upgrading to drive the medium-to-high unit growth of ton prices, and the leading hope to achieve a steady increase in profit margins under cost pressure. It is recommended that Q1 choose the machine layout and recommend China Resources Beer / Tsing Tao Beer / Chongqing Beer.
Condiment: the epidemic situation is still disturbed, pay attention to the improvement of the economy.
For traditional condiments, the 2021Q4 bank judged that the short-term spread of the epidemic still had an impact on the demand for condiment food and beverage channels, and the demand for C-end was relatively stable. Driven by the price increase, the 2021Q4 bank judged that the revenue growth rate of most companies improved month-on-month. In terms of price increase, the companies have not yet fully complied with the price, and the bank expects the price transmission to be completed around 2022Q1. Based on the fundamentals and valuation judgment, the bank believes that it is necessary to focus on the 2022 Spring Festival moving sales & inventory situation, as well as the epidemic control trend, and grasp the performance improvement inflection point. Compound condiment, 2021H2 is affected by weak demand, epidemic control, inventory removal, internal adjustment and other factors, the fundamentals of composite condiment sector are still under pressure. At the same time, companies continue to optimize and adjust to the problems reflected in 2020-2021. Looking at 2022, companies have the potential to improve their performance on the basis of light inventory and low base. Pay attention to the recovery of the growth rate of the core categories of each company.
Catering supply chain: pay attention to the profit inflection point, grasp the growth category.
Affected by the epidemic, short-term industry demand is weak, competition is fierce, superimposed cost-side pressure combined to reduce the performance expectations of 2021Q4 frozen food plate, plate stock prices also showed a more obvious decline. The bank believes that short-term sector profitability is affected by epidemic / competition / cost and other factors, if the epidemic can be controlled & demand picks up, price increases are expected to continue to be realized, and the overall profit pressure will continue to improve. In addition, we attach importance to the higher-than-expected potential of growth segments such as frozen dough and prepared vegetables in 2022. The valuation correction brought about by short-term pressure is expected to create new layout opportunities, taking into account fundamental expectations, recommend Ligao Food, Anjing Food, and pay attention to Qianwei Central Chef.
Light catering chain: short-term profits are significantly under pressure, focusing on the performance of individual stores.
In the halogen industry, head enterprises continue to quickly open stores to seize the share, and basically meet the goal of opening stores in 2021. However, in the context of short-term epidemic spread, local epidemic control policies have a certain negative impact on single-store sales, especially in high-potential areas. In this context, 2021H2 short-term promotion expenditure, cost pressure, fixed costs and other factors lead to plate profitability under pressure. With the valuation correction, the bank believes that epidemic control-single-store performance is expected to become an important catalyst in the sector, recommending tasteless food. In addition, Barbie Foods benefits from factors such as takeout, single-store performance is strong, less cost pressure, is expected to achieve accelerated growth, pay attention to the company store opening trend and the development of group meals.
Leisure snacks: many snack companies accelerate the growth of Q4 income, pay attention to the listing of new products and the effect of channel adjustment on performance.
The bank expects the 2021Q4 income growth of most snack companies to grow faster than the previous month, including those that benefit from the smooth landing of price increases (negotiation), those driven by the volume of new products on the market (Ganyuan, Jinzai, etc.), and the effect of channel adjustment and release (Yanjin, etc.). At present, the overall leisure snack plate dynamic PE has dropped to 30 times, 2021 channel changes and some areas of the epidemic repeated offline passenger impact on the overall pressure on snack enterprises as a whole, the bank believes that with many snack enterprises to complete business adjustment and light in 2021, snack business performance is expected to accelerate growth in 2022.
Beverage: the pace of development of enterprises is different, pay attention to the price pressure of raw materials.
NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. (09633), 2021H2 Bank judged that revenue maintained strong growth, taking into account that the company did not lock all PET prices and other raw material pressure, the bank judged that gross profit margin had a slight pressure compared with the first half of the year. Revenue is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2022, focusing on cost pressures and the company's coping strategies. Dongpeng Beverage, 2021Q4 continues to have a strong performance. Under the background of the continuous expansion of the functional beverage industry, Dongpeng is currently growing prominently. In 2022, the bank expects the revenue side to achieve about 30% growth; the profit side pays attention to cost pressure. Comprehensive valuation and performance growth, recommend Dongpeng drink, pay attention to NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD..
Risk factors:The consumption boom is declining; the epidemic control is not as expected; the effect of price increase is not as expected; the price of raw materials is up.
This article comes from the official account "CITIC Research" on Wechat. The authors are Xue Yuan, Gu Xunding, Jiang Jie, Tang Xuezhang, and Wang Yuechuan, Financial Editor of Zhitong.