Event: on January 21, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 23.9-2.56 billion yuan in 2021, which is + 145% to 162% compared with the same period last year. The basic earnings per share is 0.84-0.90 yuan per share, an increase of 0.44-0.50 shares per share over the same period last year.
Benefiting from the launch of new capacity and rising product prices, there has been a high profit growth for the whole of 2021. Throughout the year, the company's high performance growth is mainly due to: (1) the release of new production capacity and the thickening of the company's profits: 200000 tons of nitrile latex was put into production at the beginning of 2021, and 200000 tons of MMA units were put into production in September 2020 and March 2021, respectively. (2) prices of maleic anhydride and methyl ethyl ketone have risen: in 2021, the average market price of maleic anhydride in Shandong was 11095.6 yuan / ton, an increase of 68.7% over 2020, and the average ex-factory price of Shandong Qixiang (South China) was 9485.0 yuan / ton. an increase of 31.0% over 2020. In addition, according to estimates, the company's 2021Q4 return net profit is about 2.28-394 million yuan, down 43.3% 67.2% from the previous month, and the performance is under short-term pressure.
C4 industrial chain: consolidate the leading position of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride, and constantly improve the layout of C4 industrial chain. Consolidate the leading position of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride. Up to now, the company has a production capacity of 180000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone, accounting for about 50% of the domestic production and sales share; it has a plant of 200000 tons for n-butane oxidation to maleic anhydride, which is the largest in the world; compared with other small-scale manufacturers, the company has the advantage of scale and strong bargaining power. At the same time, in order to consolidate its leading position, the company is building 200,000 tons of maleic anhydride and expanding the production capacity of 80,000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone to meet the growing demand downstream. Continuously extend the C4 industrial chain and improve the anti-risk ability: MMA: the company's 200,000 t / a MMA project has been put into production, and the PMMA project is also under construction. After putting into production, the company will complete the formation of an integrated "isobutene-MMA-PMMA" integrated industrial chain. Nitrile latex: the company has put into production of 200000 tons of nitrile latex in January 2021, which is the largest production capacity in China. Isononanol: the company plans to invest 200,000 tons / year isononanol project, its downstream product is DINP, mainly used in plastic plasticizer, the potential market demand reaches millions of tons. Nylon 66: together with Tianchen, China, the company initiated the establishment of Tianchen Qixiang New Materials Company, which has an annual output of 1 million tons of nylon 66 new material industry base.
C3 industrial chain: layout "propane-propylene-propylene oxide" industrial chain, new profit points. The company actively introduces advanced technology to build 700,000 tons / year propane dehydrogenation project and 300,000 tons / year propylene oxide project. Up to now, the C3 industrial chain project has entered the construction link and is expected to be put into production in 2022. We believe that through the layout of the C3 industrial chain, the company is expected to add new profit growth points and create a comprehensive chemical platform.
Investment suggestion: taking into account the price trend of the company's products and the pace of production capacity release, we adjust the 2021-2023 net profit of homing to 2.730.1 billion yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on January 21, 2022 is times that of 11-9-7. In view of the fact that the continuous launch of new production capacity in the next few years will bring sustained growth in performance, maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of raw material price fluctuations; the risk of the impact of epidemic disturbance on downstream demand; the risk of slow release of new capacity.