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Why AT&T May Be Leaning Toward a 'Split-off' of Its Discovery Stake -- Barrons.com

Why AT&T May Be Leaning Toward a 'Split-off' of Its Discovery Stake -- Barrons.com

美国电话电报公司(AT&T)为何可能倾向于分拆Discovery股权--Barrons.com
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2022/01/18 17:11

Andrew Bary

安德鲁·巴里

Spin or split?

旋转还是分开?

That is the decision that $AT&T(T.US)$ faces as it considers what do with a 71% stake in $探索频道-A(DISCA.US)$ that it will receive when it merges its WarnerMedia business with Discovery in a deal that could close early in the second quarter.

这就是那个决定$AT&T(T.US)$面对着它在考虑如何处理71%的股份时所面临的问题$探索频道-A(DISCA.US)$当它将WarnerMedia业务与Discovery合并时,它将获得这笔钱,交易可能在第二季度初完成。

UBS analyst John Hodulik wrote in a recent note that he believes AT&T "is leaning toward a split of the asset"--an exchange of AT&T stock for shares in Discovery, which will change its name to Warner Brothers Discovery.  The deal, he added, could be a catalyst for AT&T stock, which has rallied this year after a poor 2021.

瑞银(UBS)分析师约翰·霍杜利克(John Hodulik)在最近的一份报告中写道,他认为AT&T“倾向于拆分资产”--用AT&T的股票交换Discovery的股份,Discovery将更名为华纳兄弟探索(Warner Brothers Discovery)。他补充说,这笔交易可能会成为美国电话电报公司(AT&T)股价的催化剂。在经历了糟糕的2021年之后,美国电话电报公司的股价今年出现了反弹。

AT&T shares are nearly 9% higher, at $27, so far in 2022. Hodulik has a Buy rating and price target of $34 a share on the stock.

2022年到目前为止,AT&T的股价上涨了近9%,达到27美元。Hodulik对该股的评级为买入,目标价为每股34美元。

A spinoff would be straightforward. AT&T would distribute an estimated 1.7 billion shares of the merged company to its shareholders, who would get nearly 0.25 share of Warner Brothers Discovery for each AT&T share. Such a move would be worth about $7 per AT&T share based on Discovery's recent price of $30. Discovery stock is up over 20% in 2022, making it one the top stocks in the S&P 500.

剥离将是直截了当的。AT&T将向其股东分配约17亿股合并后的公司股票,每股AT&T股票将获得近0.25股华纳兄弟探索公司(Warner Brothers Discovery)的股份。根据Discovery最近30美元的价格,这样的举动价值约为每股AT&T 7美元。Discovery股票在2022年上涨了20%以上,成为标准普尔500指数中涨幅最大的股票之一。

The other option -- a split-off -- is more complicated. AT&T would offer holders the option of swapping their AT&T stock for Warner Brothers Discovery stock. To entice conversion, AT&T would likely offer its investors a bonus, with Hodulik suggesting a deal of one share for one share.

另一种选择--拆分--则更为复杂。AT&T将为持有者提供将其持有的AT&T股票换成华纳兄弟探索(Warner Brothers Discovery)股票的选择权。为了吸引转换,AT&T可能会向投资者提供奖金,霍杜利克建议一股换一股。

That would be appealing to AT&T holders since Discovery now trades roughly $3 a share above AT&T stock.

这对AT&T的持有者很有吸引力,因为Discovery现在的股价比AT&T的股票高出约3美元。

The benefit of a split-off is that AT&T could retire about $45 billion, or 1.7 billion of its roughly 7.2 billion shares outstanding. Hodulik says the AT&T dividend, now 7.8%, likely would be close to 6% in either scenario after the deal based on the company's prior financial guidance.

拆分的好处是,AT&T可能会注销约450亿美元,即其约72亿股流通股中的17亿股。霍杜利克说,根据公司之前的财务指引,在交易完成后,AT&T的股息目前为7.8%,在任何一种情况下都可能接近6%。

In a spinoff, the new dividend would be about $1.18 share while it would be around $1.55 a share with a split-off, he estimates. The yield would be slightly higher in a spinoff scenario.

他估计,剥离后的新股息约为每股1.18美元,而剥离后的新股息约为每股1.55美元。在剥离的情况下,收益率会略高一些。

Hodulik sees AT&T as attractively valued at about six times projected 2023 earnings of $4.43 a share in a split-off scenario, a discount to rival Verizon Communications (VZ), at nearly 10 times projected 2023 earnings and a 4.7% dividend yield.

霍杜利克认为,AT&T的估值具有吸引力,约为2023年预期收益4.43美元的6倍,低于竞争对手Verizon Communications(VZ),接近2023年预期收益的10倍,股息率为4.7%。

Asked about the spin-versus-split scenario, AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches was noncommittal at a December conference appearance: "We think both are great ways to do -- both a split and a spin are great mechanisms for delivering value. And we're not going to make the decision until we get closer to the time of the separation to ensure that we have complete information, including the relative share prices of the two entities."

当被问及拆分还是拆分的情况时,AT&T首席财务官帕斯卡尔·德斯罗什在12月的一次会议上没有表态:“我们认为这两种方式都很好--拆分和拆分都是传递价值的很好机制。在我们接近拆分的时间之前,我们不会做出决定,以确保我们拥有完整的信息,包括两家实体的相对股价。”

Hodulik wrote: "We believe clarity over deal structure and the improved visibility over EPS, FCF (free cash flow), and dividends per share will be a catalyst for AT&T shares, while an exchange structure would enable shareholders to determine their own exposure to Warner Bros. Discovery. We believe AT&T will emerge from this transaction as a leaner, more focused entity better able to invest in its core connectivity businesses."

霍杜利克写道:“我们相信,交易结构的明确性,以及每股收益、自由现金流(FCF)和每股股息的可见度提高,将成为AT&T股票的催化剂,而交易所结构将使股东能够确定他们自己对华纳兄弟发现公司的敞口。我们相信,AT&T将从这笔交易中脱颖而出,成为一个更精简、更专注的实体,能够更好地投资于其核心连接业务。”

Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com

写信给安德鲁·巴里,电子邮件:andrew.bary@Barrons.com

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


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