Weitang Industry develops vertically from die to stamping parts and battery box, and the technology undertakes each other; new customers develop smoothly, stamping parts enter the release period; the permeability of overseas new energy vehicles is in its infancy, and the company has been designated by VinFast, the new force of car building in Vietnam. The exchange rate, freight rate, raw material price and other factors that originally suppressed the company's profits are expected to be alleviated in 22 years. The company's net profit in 2022-2023 is expected to be 1-149 million yuan, + 115% and 49% compared with the same period last year, corresponding to PE 28.5,19.1. Cover for the first time, giving a "highly recommended-A" rating.
Import substitution + renewal is accelerated, and the mold industry is growing steadily. The company is mainly engaged in high-end automotive moulds, directly supplying to the world's mainstream parts suppliers, such as Magna Group, Boze Group, Lear and so on. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of high-end automobile moulds in China is only 40%. With the development of China's new energy automobile industry, there is a broad space for import substitution; the release of new models has been accelerated, and the development cycle has been shortened from 4 years to 1-3 years.
Win top customers, actively expand production, is expected to share the growth dividend. He began to produce stamping parts in 2016 and has now become a first-class supplier of mainstream new energy vehicles, with sales growing exponentially. Stamping parts are entering a rapid release period, the company's largest customer (accounting for more than 50%) is widely loved by consumers, and the production line automation level is high, the pace of production expansion is fast, the company synchronously speeds up the production capacity construction of stamping parts, and is expected to share customer growth dividends.
The battery box industry is still in the import period and is expected to open a new revenue growth curve. Weitang New Energy Reserve Battery Box Technology was established in 2019 and won the designated project of Vietnam Automobile New Power VinFast in 2021. It is now in the period of industry introduction, and emerging manufacturers have the opportunity to cut in. VinFast is the first mature carmaker in Vietnam. Vingroup, the backing group, is the largest integrated group in Vietnam. Vingroup has invested US $5 billion in VinFast. VinFast recently delivered the first batch of VF E34 electric vehicles to customers and plans to sell 42000 electric vehicles worldwide in 2022.
The darkest moment has passed, and multiple profit suppressors will gradually ease. The company's overseas income accounts for more than 70%, of which exports to the United States account for 30% to 57%. The raw materials of each business account for 40% to 70% of the total cost.
The trade friction between China and the United States brings a high tariff burden to the company, the appreciation of the RMB erodes the company's revenue and gross profit, and the surge in shipping prices and raw materials increases the company's costs. multiple factors put pressure on the company's profits in recent years.
At dawn, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times, when the spread between domestic and foreign interest rates narrows, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to fall. With the gradual relief of the epidemic, the shortage of shipping capacity will be alleviated, and now the freight rates of international routes have begun to decline. The mismatch between supply and demand of raw materials is expected to be alleviated gradually, and the upward trend has been suspended under policy regulation.
Investment suggestion: the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 7.18,11.41 and 1.696 billion yuan, which is + 29%, 59% and 49% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home is 0.46,1 and 149 million yuan, which corresponds to 61.3,28.5,19.1% of PE. Cover for the first time, giving a "highly recommended-A" rating.
Risk hints: the global auto industry is in the doldrums, the RMB is appreciating, and shipping and raw material prices remain high.