主线逻辑全面验证，“冬季躁动”行情渐入佳境。从海外环境来看，Omicron新毒株的传播力度尚不明朗，但变异病毒对A股市场的冲击已经逐步淡化，而随着疫情担忧逐步升温，市场对于流动性宽松的预期也会上升，带动成长板块逐步占优。国内方面，我们自9月首提“冬季躁动”概念以来，估值切换为“冬季躁动”行情奠定基础，我们提出的三大逻辑逐一得到验证。从流动性来看，10月社融同比增速扭转跌势，信用拐点初步显现，随着信贷与财政政策加速推进，今年宏观流动性季节性宽松节奏将明显早于往年。从企业盈利来看，近期市场结构由传统行业的估值修复，转向盈利预期改善行业的估值切换，再到高景气赛道的估值提升，这一逻辑也被市场完美演绎。从风险偏好来，随着11月联储正式启动Taper后全球风险偏好提升，叠加联合国气候大会前夕新能源政策密集出台，市场风险偏好如期回升。“冬季躁动”行情渐入佳境。站在当下时点，“冬季躁动”行情已经全面启动，投资者不应过度拘泥于所谓“行情主线”，而应把握推动行情的内在逻辑。在投资者盈利预期逐步切换的背景下，市场结构主线将以传统行业（食品饮料、家电、金融、建材、地产）估值修复→盈利预期弹性较大行业（农业、纺织、造纸、化药等必需消费品和信息、能源基建）估值切换→高景气赛道（新能源车、绿电、军工）的估值提升顺序渐次展开。In December, the gold stocks recommended by East Asia Qianhai Securities are: Dongzhu Ecology, Hubei Yihua, Guizhou Moutai, Haida Group, Yirui Science and Technology, Postal Savings Bank of China, Sinorama Science and Technology, Xin Wanda, Pielang, and Amy.
[gold stocks Review] in November this year, the gold stock portfolio recommended by Qianhai Securities in East Asia had a return of 0.42%, ranking 23rd among 26 brokerages. The three stocks with the highest returns were Dongzhu Ecology, Benkang and Sinorama Technology, with monthly increases of 22.47%, 15.29% and 14.64%, respectively. For details of the report, see"the record of the gold stock portfolio of securities firms in November: Dongxing Securities won 12.16% of the title and Hua'an was the worst."。
The following is the gold stock report of East Asia Qianhai Securities in December:
The logic of the main line is fully verified, and the market of "winter restlessness" is getting better and better. From the perspective of the overseas environment, the spread of the new Omicron strain is still unclear, but the impact of the mutated virus on the A-share market has gradually faded, and as the epidemic concern gradually heats up, the market's expectation of loose liquidity will also rise, driving the growth sector to gradually dominate. Domestically, since we first put forward the concept of "winter restlessness" in September, the valuation has been switched to the "winter restlessness" market to lay the foundation, and our three major logic has been verified one by one. From the perspective of liquidity, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance reversed the decline in October, and the credit inflection point initially appeared. With the acceleration of credit and fiscal policy, the pace of seasonal easing of macro liquidity this year will be significantly earlier than in previous years. From the perspective of corporate earnings, the recent market structure has changed from the valuation repair of the traditional industry to the profit expectation to improve the valuation switch of the industry, and then to the valuation improvement of the high-prosperity racetrack, this logic has also been perfectly interpreted by the market. In terms of risk appetite, with the increase in global risk appetite after the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper in November and the intensive introduction of new energy policies on the eve of the United Nations climate conference, market risk appetite rebounded as scheduled. The market of "winter restlessness" is getting better and better. Standing at the present time, the "winter restlessness" market has been fully launched, investors should not be too rigid in the so-called "market main line", but should grasp the inherent logic of promoting the market. In the context of the gradual switching of investors' profit expectations, the main line of the market structure will be based on the valuation of traditional industries (food and beverage, home appliances, finance, building materials, real estate). Industries with greater flexibility in profit expectations (agriculture, textile, paper, chemicals and other essential consumer goods and information, energy infrastructure) valuation switching "high-prosperity racetrack (new energy vehicles, green electricity, military industry) valuation order is gradually launched.
Focus on four investment clues:
1) valuation switching overlaps changes in the market liquidity environment, and track leaders such as food and beverage, medicine and home appliances are expected to usher in a repair market.
2) with commodity prices continuing to rise, the agricultural sectors represented by planting and aquaculture in essential consumer goods, as well as essential consumer goods with strong price transmission capacity such as textiles and paper, are expected to meet.
Come to rise in prosperity
3) pay attention to the pull of domestic fiscal stimulus on the new and old infrastructure sectors, especially the energy infrastructure and information infrastructure in the new infrastructure.
4) layout of the track to maintain high prosperity in the next two years, including new energy vehicle industry chain, green power and military industry, etc.
