In December, the gold stocks recommended by Guosheng Securities are: Tianhua Super Clean, Mingtai Aluminum, Satellite Chemistry, Dongzhu Ecology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Jiechang Drive, Xiangdian Co., Ltd., Supor, Luzhou laojiao, Postal Savings Bank of China, Ningbo Bank.
[gold stocks Review] in November this year, the gold stock portfolio recommended by Guosheng Securities returned 6.06%, ranking 14th among 26 brokerages. The three stocks with the highest returns were Ankeri, Hangke Technology and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, with monthly increases of 36.25%, 18.98% and 12.94%, respectively. For details of the report, see"the record of the gold stock portfolio of securities firms in November: Dongxing Securities won 12.16% of the title and Hua'an was the worst."。
The following is the gold stock report of Guosheng Securities in December:
Strategic configuration recommendations in December: review and response of new variants of the epidemic
How did the past few rounds of epidemic cycles affect the stock market? Through the review of the internal and external epidemic cycle, we further sum up the following regular characteristics: 1) there are great differences in the small cycle of the epidemic at home and abroad, and the correlation between them is low; 2) in the past 21 years, the epidemic cycle mainly affects the asset price and the stock market style, but the impact on the absolute price of assets is relatively limited. 3) in terms of A-share style, it is more affected by the small cycle of the domestic epidemic, each round of domestic epidemic spread is accompanied by growth-value, high valuation-low valuation relatively outperform; but reversed after the decline in the number of diagnosed; 4) as far as the global market is concerned, the price ratio of growth-value and technology-energy is also highly related to the global epidemic cycle.
Scenario analysis and countermeasures of the new variants of this round of epidemic situation. With regard to the future trend of this round of epidemic, we are divided into three scenarios: 1. In an optimistic situation, the variation of the new strain can be controlled, the existing vaccine still has the ability to prevent and control, the transmission channels are controlled, and the market panic will be quickly eliminated. 2. in neutral cases, with reference to the experience of Delta virus, this new mutated virus may aggravate the duration of the epidemic and the peak of new cases, resulting in a further extension of the global blockade time, the expectation of global recovery and the price of risky assets, it will inevitably be hit in the short term. 3. The pessimistic situation is a reappearance of the spread of the epidemic in the first quarter of 20 years, the loss of group immunity in western countries, the shutdown of the real economy and the rapid rise of financial risk aversion. We do not rule out the possibility of a quasi-liquidity crisis (the most pessimistic scenario) after the collapse of risky assets.
Core conclusions and strategic recommendations: it is difficult to avoid the impact of risk assets in the short term, and the decline in crude oil reduces inflation expectations, but for the domestic market, the internal and external epidemic situation is independent, the peripheral supply chain is blocked, and the liquidity inflection point is postponed. All make A shares continue to "take the lead", around the three main lines: 1) short-term offline consumption and travel chain may be affected by emotional impact, but the core contradiction of A shares is not outside. Under the trend of steady growth and the bistable trend of currency and credit, we will continue to be optimistic about the repair of value stocks in the medium term, recommend food and beverage and consumer services for large consumption, and pay attention to banks, developers of state-owned enterprises and power operation under undervaluation. 2) the direction of new infrastructure development, the first is new energy infrastructure: scenery, energy storage, UHV; 3) upstream cost reversal of auto parts, machinery, and independent main line military industry.
December gold stock portfolio
Tianhua ultra-clean: lithium hydroxide capacity continues to expand, resource end binding Manono& channel end binding Ningde era, grasp the certainty of growth.
Mingtai Aluminum Industry: the "double control of energy consumption" continues, the recycled aluminum production line is actively distributed, and the cost balance at the end of the raw material can be expected.
Satellite chemistry: ethylene and new materials projects put into production to open up the growth space, the profit center to a new level.
Dongzhu ecology: steady growth ecological garden quality leader, forestry carbon sequestration business has great potential.
Yiwei Lithium Energy: large cylindrical core target, leading technical layout, rapid production capacity expansion, large growth space.
Jiechang drive: linear drive system leader, downstream demand accelerated warming.
Xiangdian Co., Ltd.: all-electric push ship, electromagnetic launch is the fulcrum of naval equipment upgrading.
Supor: traditional kitchen small electricity faucet, strong performance certainty, organizational structure adjustment and channel system reform contribute new points.
Luzhou laojiao: the goal of rebate for the whole year is complete, and the equity incentive stimulates the endogenous power.
Postal Savings Bank of China: with the "growth" of the state-owned banks, the appointment of the new management and the promotion of the market-oriented mechanism have brought more space.
Ningbo Bank: rights issue landed, short-term risk-free, high growth in the future is sustainable.
Risk tips: 1, the development of the epidemic is out of control; 2, a sharp economic recession; 3, policy changes beyond expectations.
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