Company integrated layout of phenolone industry chain
The company is one of the leading enterprises in the domestic phenolic ketone industry chain, and it is also the most complete enterprise in the domestic industrial chain layout. The main products include phenol, acetone, bisphenol A, polycarbonate (PC) and isopropanol. After listing, raise funds to invest in dimethyl carbonate (DMC), propane dehydrogenation to propylene (PDH) and polypropylene (PP) projects.
The phenolone industry chain is expected to be pulled by the downstream in the future, and the phenolone industry chain of Gaojing company is a relatively free competition industry chain. for the development of the industry chain, we judge: 1) the phenolone plant will have less new capacity in the future. in the future, with the sharp increase in downstream demand, there will be an obvious gap between supply and demand, and the profit of phenolone plant is expected to continue to improve in the future. 2) there is an obvious gap between supply and demand of bisphenol A. driven by the demand of downstream epoxy resin and polycarbonate, it is expected that the price and profit level of bisphenol A will remain high in the future. 3) driven by the downstream wind power industry, the epoxy resin industry is expected to develop rapidly in the future. even if the price of bisphenol A rises again in the future, the downstream epoxy resin can still be transferred to the downstream through price increase, so as to ensure the profit of bisphenol A.
The advantage of corporate integration is obvious, and the financial indicators are in the forefront of comparable companies in terms of profitability, solvency and operating ability: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's ROE 35.96%, ROA27.07%, asset-liability ratio 14.38%, current ratio 4.34, inventory turnover 19.06 days are at the best level of comparable companies. It can reflect the effect of the integrated layout of the company, which not only has the cost advantage, but also enhances the anti-risk ability.
Profit forecast and rating
We are optimistic about the increase in the price of the company's related products and the performance improvement brought about by the future production of the fund-raising project. we predict that the company's net profit in 2021-2023 will reach 100 million yuan in 22-24-28, and the EPS will be 3.9610 billion yuan per share. Combined with relative valuation and absolute valuation, we judge that the reasonable valuation range of the company is 59.21-66.75 yuan. Give a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The production progress of downstream polycarbonate and epoxy resin is not as expected; the price of raw materials has risen sharply; the construction of the company's fund-raising projects is not up to expectations; others have led to parking and overhauling of the company's in-production equipment, etc.