According to our estimates, if the current deleveraging policy is strictly implemented, the completion time of industry deleveraging will end in 2023, officially entering the era of low leverage.In the special discussion session of the first chapter of our semi-annual report review, we measure the current process of industry contraction, and it is expected that the current round of contraction will be completed in 2023. If we take the requirements of the joint document of eight ministries and commissions in July 2021 to regulate the advance accounts received in the development of the industry, the deleveraging time can be extended by an additional half a year to one year. In any case, without additional stimulus from governments and financial institutions, markets that appear to be in labor pains but have long-term benefits will be deleveraged between 2023 and 2024, officially entering an era of low leverage. The above can be seen in "downgrade but expansion table has the dawn, profit margin sets the direction-Summary of the report in 2021"

　　As an industry with heavy assets, deleveraging will make the industry develop at a low speed.During the extension period, the demand side will also pay more attention to physical supply and demand rather than credit policy, and the focus of the current market needs to be greatly changed.。In the previous review, we put forward the discussion on the demand side, due to the lack of data, there is no clear logic to judge the demand, but the increase in high-end demand brought about by the agglomeration of the manufacturing industry, at least in terms of structure, will bring great increment, and because there will be an increase in unit price, the total amount can still be increased to a certain extent, which is finally reflected in the low-speed development stage of the industry without relying on financial leverage. Inconsistent with industry expectations, the current market pays more attention to whether credit policy is relaxed or not, while in terms of current and future policies, definancialization is still a trend, so the variables that dominate the industry are gradually switching.

　　Low leverage and low growth is a great turning point for the rapid development of the industry in the past, so it has entered the stage of undervaluation, but this valuation is not the valuation trap represented by PE, but the DCF that can continue to operate enterprises, structural opportunities have begun.Although the market valuation discussions on real estate are almost entirely focused on the current PE, and thus fall into a long-term valuation trap, as a large number of real estate companies passively improve PE due to negative performance growth, some investors have begun to choose other valuation methods. We have issued a number of in-depth reports to discuss the valuation methods of the industry, and give clear calculation methods and results. For real estate enterprises with bankruptcy probability, we can also calculate whether they are underestimated according to the DCF model. However, according to PE, most of them enter the data illusion. According to DCF, housing companies that can continue to operate are undervalued by an average of 50%, structural opportunities have begun, and the valuation repair can be completed only after the industry is cleared. Recommend China Jinmao and Sunac China in Hong Kong stocks, benefit Xuhui Holdings Group, recommend Zhongnan Construction, Vanke A, Poly Real Estate, Jindi Group, Merchants Shekou, etc.; in terms of real estate agents, I love my family; at the same time, recommend the property sector, benefit from the investment surplus, Country Garden Services Holdings, recommend China property, Baolong business.

　　Risk Tips:The government has re-liberalized the former financial system and followed the land finance model.