Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating of 77. The company extends the layout of maleic anhydride-BDO and other industries, is expected to become a new performance growth point. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2021-2023 will be 1.09 RMB 2.23 RMB3.62. According to the comprehensive PE,PB valuation, the company will be given a target price of 55.25 yuan and a "overweight" rating for the first time.
LPG deep processing enterprises extend the layout of maleic anhydride-BDO industry chain. The company produces isooctane and MTBE through LPG deep processing, and extends the sec-butyl acetate industry chain to build a butanone co-production of ethyl acetate project. At the same time, the company plans to build a comprehensive utilization project of light hydrocarbons, which includes but not limited to PBAT, maleic anhydride, BDO, PTMEG and other devices in the first, second and long term. The first phase of the project with an annual output of 150000 tons of maleic anhydride has entered the stage of trial production in November.
The self-produced maleic anhydride method BDO moved to the left side of the cost curve. The market believes that the cost of the company's maleic anhydride BDO process has been high for a long time and is not competitive. We believe that the self-produced maleic anhydride method BDO is close to the left side of the cost curve and close to the alkynyl aldehyde method. In the long run, under the background of carbon neutralization, the cost of alkynyl aldehyde method continues to rise, and the cost advantage of self-produced maleic anhydride method BDO will be further expanded. The company plans 280000 tons of BDO in the first phase of light hydrocarbons, which is expected to bring substantial growth in performance.
With the blessing of multiple advantages, the company starts a new round of growth. The company plans many projects, among which the light hydrocarbon comprehensive project will take BDO as the center, with a comprehensive layout of maleic anhydride BDO and downstream high value-added products. The downstream demand of BDO breaks out at many points, and the long-term space opens. The company is located in Huizhou Daya Bay Refining District, low-cost LPG resources to further reduce costs. In the long run, the company will benefit from its integrated layout and the development of the industry, and the company's growth will be deterministic.
Risk hint: calcium carbide and BDO prices fell sharply; production of projects under construction fell short of expectations.