The writer Gladwell put forward the famous "law of ten thousand hours" in his book "Alien", that is, "the reason why genius is outstanding in people's eyes is not superior to talent, but to make continuous efforts. Ten thousand hours of training is a necessary condition for anyone to change from ordinary to world-class master. "
Gu Qibin, fund manager and manufacturing group leader of the stock investment research department of Tianhong Fund, has been focused on manufacturing investment research for 10 years. These ten years include not only the training period of sticking to the unpopular direction and sitting on the bench, but also the harvest period of winning word-of-mouth with outstanding achievements. In Gu Qibin's view, focus is the most important quality. Whether entrepreneurs or investors, face a lot of temptations every day, how to adhere to what they think is the right direction not to drift, it is simple to say, but actually very difficult, very test the mind.
Over the past ten years, Gu Qibin has also formed his own stable investment style: the pursuit of left mining and long-term possession of high-quality enterprises, balanced allocation. He is a stock selection perfectionist, requires that the position of enterprises have beyond the understanding of the market, the depth of understanding to walk in the forefront of the market. Gu Qibin has studied and focused on two types of enterprises for a long time, one is the leading variety of manufacturing industry that is familiar to the market, such as many representative enterprises of Chinese manufacturing industry. In addition, he is also good at mining invisible champions in subdivided fields. Gu Qibin believes that the depth and breadth of China's manufacturing industry is very large, and the value of many excellent companies is far from being recognized by the market. As long as you focus on digging, you can find high-quality manufacturing companies that can cross the cycle.
Firmly believe that focus creates value
When Gu Qibin first joined the industry, he focused on the research in the field of cycle manufacturing. "pro-cyclical assets were the hottest in the market at that time, and then, as the market changed, the focus on pro-cyclical assets was very low." Gu Qibin said.
Until the third quarter of last year, the market style was focused on technology, medicine and consumption, so Tianhong cycle Strategy, a pro-cyclical fund managed by Gu Qibin, has been on the bench for much of 2018.
"in the past three years, products that adhere to the research investment direction of pro-cyclical assets and do not drift are rare in the A-share market. But we always believe that focus can bring results, just like the business development of a company, you have to make an investment on the balance sheet before it can be reflected in the income statement. " Gu Qibin said.
But it is not easy to sit on the bench and be lonely, and it is often easier to chase up and down than to stick to value. Gu Qibin further stressed that focus can be rewarded, and it is precisely because we have been studying, accumulating and tracking in this direction that we have the confidence to grasp it better when the opportunity comes. The word he repeatedly mentioned in the interview was also "focus".
It is such a fund that once sat on the bench, but took the lead in winning the greatest trust of "insiders". On February 3, 2020, the CSI 300 index fell 7.88%, and the sentiment in the A-share market was depressed. The fund company launched a self-purchase call. Tianhong Fund spent 500 million yuan (including investment by subsidiaries) to apply for its own products. Among them, the fund managed by Gu Qibin buys the most: the parent company Tianhong Fund buys about 25 million yuan from the Tianhong cycle Strategy Fund and about 75 million yuan from the Tianhong High-quality growth Enterprise Fund, and holds it for a long time. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the two had floating profits of 84% and 98% respectively, totaling more than 90 million yuan. In addition, other fund managers and employees within Tianhong are also holders of Gu Qibin's products. According to the data of the China Central report in 2021, Tianhong Fund employees hold more than 13 million yuan in cyclical strategy funds and more than 5 million yuan in Tianhong high-quality growth enterprise funds.
Win trust with focus and consolidate word-of-mouth with performance. The two products managed by Gu Qibin have outstanding long-term performance. Gu Qibin began to manage the Tianhong cycle strategy on December 8, 2018. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the rate of return was 135.65%, while the benchmark rate of return for the same period was only 40.19%. On October 18, 2019, the Tianhong quality growth Enterprise Fund was managed by Gu Qibin when it was established. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the fund returned 119.08%, while the benchmark rate of return for the same period was only 34.88%.
"in the market, sometimes we need to be a retrograde or a minority, although we will be under a lot of pressure in a short time, but in the long run, as long as we do the right thing, we have a chance to get the ideal return." Gu Qibin said.
The "visionary" of a good company
Before joining Tianhong, Gu Qibin was awarded the Best analyst of New Fortune. He, who knew the "tricks" of various research reports in the market like the back of his hand, put forward high requirements for the in-depth research of the manufacturing team researchers, who could not follow others and should have insights. Gu Qibin first of all asked himself, his stock selection criteria are very picky, is a stock selection perfectionist. "the depth of understanding of individual stocks should be in the forefront of the market, and it is necessary to have the understanding of surpassing the market, so that it is expected to create excess returns beyond the market."
For companies that have chosen and studied repeatedly, Gu Qibin will wait patiently to buy points, strive to buy at a reasonable or low price, and then be prepared to hold them for a long time after buying. In the case of no significant change in fundamentals, it is not easy to sell hastily because of short-term fluctuations in the market or a quarter's performance that is lower than expected.
To invest in an unpopular industry, Gu Qibin's excess return comes from the excavation and medium-and long-term holding of high-quality leaders and subdivided invisible champions in the market ahead of the market, which can be described as the "visionary" of a good company.
The reporter combed the periodic report of the fund and found that the four Seasons report of Ningde Times entered the top ten heavy stocks of Tianhong High quality growth Enterprise Fund in 2019, and Gu Qibin held it all the way, and to the third quarterly report of 2021, it was still among the top ten heavy stocks. From 2020 to the end of the third quarter of 2021, the Ningde era increased by 395%. Longji shares were listed as the 11th largest heavy stocks of Tianhong quality growth Enterprise Fund in the four seasons of 2019. Since then, they have been in the top 10, and until the third quarterly report of 2021, they are still among the top 10. Longji shares rose 370 per cent between 2020 and the end of the third quarter of 2021. The same is true of stocks that have risen prominently in the past year or two, such as China's boulder and Changan Automobile.
In addition to being good at buying leading enterprises in heavy positions and holding them all the way when the market attention is low, Gu Qibin is also good at mining hidden champions in subdivided areas with low market attention, laying out in advance to pursue excess returns. Zhen'an Technology, the industry leader, entered the top 10 stocks in the Tianhong cycle strategy in 2020, and is still among the top 10 stocks in the third quarterly report in 2021. In the first three quarters of 2021, Zhen'an Technology increased by 109%.
Behind his rich achievements, Gu Qibin has formed a scientific and systematic stock selection methodology-- screening research from all aspects of enterprise core competitiveness, enterprise management, valuation and so on. To examine the core competitiveness of enterprises, we will start from the aspects of market share, net profit margin, stability of profit growth (compared with peers), customer quality, product price increase rate, R & D investment, employee production efficiency and so on. Enterprise management will study from the aspects of long-term profit growth, return on long-term assets (compared with peers), fixed assets + projects under construction, management incentives, equity pledge ratio, structure of management team (time in office, professional background, etc.). Gu Qibin further concluded: "the core competitiveness of typical manufacturing enterprises includes technology, technology, resources, management, capital and so on."
Gu Qibin also attaches great importance to the investigation and research of enterprise management. "when studying a company, it may be analyzed that all kinds of hardware performance, such as statements and product competitiveness, are excellent, and there is no problem with the verification of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, but we still have to put the human factor in an important position." Gu Qibin stressed, "focus is a very important quality." Both entrepreneurs and investors face a lot of temptations every day. How to stick to what they think is the right direction without drifting is simple to say, but it is actually very difficult and testing the mind. "
Gu Qibin cited Longji shares as an example. He began to do high-frequency research, tracking and investment when the market value of the company was about 20 billion yuan. This year, the company has reached a market capitalization level of 500 billion yuan. Why did it have such an increase in market value in just a few years? Gu Qibin believes that it is very important that Li Zhenguo, the actual controller of the company, is very focused. He has been engaged in technical research in this industry for more than a decade and has been sitting on the bench at the beginning, but he has not deviated from doing real estate development or other sideline. He thinks that his technology is in the lead and is good for the development of the whole industry. He persevered and finally ushered in the harvest in the past few years. "
High-quality manufacturing enterprises are expected to pass through the cycle.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been frequent opportunities in the field of cyclical manufacturing, which has become the focus of market attention. at the same time, many stocks in the upstream and middle reaches of new energy, chemical and other fields have risen greatly. Looking ahead, where are the opportunities in the manufacturing sector? Gu Qibin believes that market opportunities will be more concentrated in the future, including new energy, carbon neutralization, military industry and so on. He stressed that high-quality manufacturing and pro-cyclical assets are expected to continue to contribute excess returns in the next few years and beyond.
Gu Qibin said that the market often has a stereotype of the cyclical manufacturing industry, feeling that they have no long-term prospects. But in his view, there are a lot of high-quality leading companies and hidden champions, their long-term growth space and profit stability have not been fully priced by the market, which contains a lot of investment opportunities.
Gu Qibin said that high-quality cycle manufacturing leading enterprises are expected to cross the cycle and continue to contribute excess earnings. As long as we find the high-quality leading enterprises in the industry and hold them in the medium and long term, the improvement of the competitiveness of leading enterprises can iron out the fluctuation of the industry to a great extent. No matter how the economy fluctuates, the excellent companies in the industry outperform relative to the industry benchmark, invest in the right place, and can have a double-click effect when the pro-cyclical market comes. These companies can not only get alpha returns, but also enjoy beta gains.
Gu Qibin said that due to the great depth and breadth of China's manufacturing industry, the value of many excellent companies is far from being recognized by the market, and the discovery of "invisible champions" in some industry segments is expected to get more excess returns. Mining these industries needs to focus on deep ploughing. In the past few years, no matter how the market is good or bad and how the style changes, the investment style of Tianhong quality growth and Tianhong cycle strategy fund has not drifted, and has always focused on the field of cyclical manufacturing.
It is worth noting that, unlike some manufacturing-related funds in the market, Gu Qibin's investment style is more balanced and robust, and does not focus on a single industry segment, and his sources of excess income are more diverse. He said: "Tianhong Fund has always been a very sound company, investment style and business direction is not radical, put soundness in the first place, reflected in our investment style is also the same." My personal investment style is also sound, and I will make a balanced allocation in the industry. Heavy positions in a single segment of the industry, although short-term performance may run faster, but in the long run may cause a lot of problems. "