Maintain the "overweight" rating, maintain the profit forecast and target price. We maintain the company's EPS of-2.85,0.31 and 0.99 yuan per share from 2021 to 2023, maintain the company's target price of 22.58 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Travel light, reduce cost and increase efficiency. The company continued to clear the lease in October, and some pigs came out in advance, resulting in light weight and low price. At the same time, due to a large proportion of hurdles in the first half of October, coupled with low-weight pigs, the overall price is lower in October. The company set aside a total of 1.3 billion yuan for asset impairment in the first three quarters, and a variety of measures helped the company reduce pressure: 1) reduce reserve sows: in order to speed up the recovery of cash, the company reduced the stock of binary reserve sows; 2) eliminated fertile sows: the company accelerated the phase-out of fertile sows whose PSY was lower than 20 in Q3. In terms of productive biological assets, the balance of Q3 productive biological assets was 5.947 billion, down 37.4% from the same period last year.
3) Q3 company speeds up the clearance of high-cost leasing sites, etc., to improve capacity utilization and overall production efficiency.
The aquaculture efficiency is expected to exceed expectations in 2022, and the cost will further decline in the future. The foreign original pigs imported by the company began to release production capacity in 2020, and the piglet cost in the 2021Q4 fattening cost is expected to continue to decline, only the piglet cost drop is expected to bring a fattening cost of 22.5 yuan / kg, at the same time, the fattening efficiency continues to improve, and it is expected that the company's fattening cost will decline rapidly by the end of 2022.
The production capacity reserve is in the lead, and the company is optimistic about its future growth. The company introduces high-quality breeding pigs through the "ten thousand introduction" program from 2020 to 2021, constantly optimizes the population quality and constructs an efficient breeding system, which is expected to improve the company's production performance and lay a foundation for the company's high growth in the future. The company is a large-scale breeding head enterprise, business focus, capacity reserves have advantages, the company has a strong performance flexibility. Unload the burden, waiting for the cycle upward performance is expected to force.
Risk tips: feed raw material price fluctuations, breeding cycle fluctuations and other risks.