The agricultural sector rose higher in intraday trading on the 3rd, while pork and seed stocks were active. As of press time, in terms of pork concept, Dabinong is approaching the daily limit, with the new hope rising more than 9%, Tiankang Biological and Tianbang shares up nearly 7%, and Wen's shares, Muyuan shares, Dongrui shares and New Wufeng shares up more than 3%. In terms of seed stocks, Jinjian Rice, Longyuan shares, Longping Hi-Tech, etc., rose by more than 4%.

Data show that the average price of three-yuan pigs outside the country was 16.24 yuan / kg last Friday, up 13.57 percent from the previous month, while the average price of piglets outside 15 kilograms was 24.47 yuan / kg, up 5.88 percent from before the festival. At present, the price of pigs in most parts of the south has risen back to more than 16 yuan / kg, and the price of pigs in some coastal areas has exceeded 17 yuan.

AVIC Securities pointed out that the recent rebound in pig prices is mainly based on both supply and demand factors: 1) the supply side, the expected capacity adjustment under the overall loss of the industry, and the decrease in the stock of breeding sows for three consecutive months, all of which have increased the market's expectation of the coming inflection point of live pigs. at the same time, the state has introduced a pig production capacity control plan and continuously launched a collection and storage plan. It also releases the expectations of the state's policy of supporting pig prices, which forms a support for prices. 2) on the demand side, on the one hand, it is the peak season of traditional meat consumption in the fourth quarter, the rebound of consumption demand after the overfall of pork prices, the increase of traditional consumption in the north, the increase of bacon driven by low temperature and low price in the south, and the consumption in rural areas. The agency believes that the current pig market has rebounded in stages, but the stock column is still at a high level, and the overall supply and demand is still relatively loose. Without a fundamental change in core production capacity, the inflection point in the pig cycle still takes time. But at the same time, low pig prices and high grain prices, breeding profits under pressure, head pig enterprises have reported huge losses in the third quarter, the maximum loss may be the eve of Jitailai. The stage bottoming out of the absolute price of live pigs means that the most pessimistic expectations of the plate have been fully released, whether the pig price or the stock price is basically at a relatively low point, the space to continue downward is very limited, and the safety margin of plate investment is relatively high.

Dongxing Securities believes that in the short term, in the context of the overall rise in industry breeding costs, there is still a small space for the seasonal rise in pig prices, and pig prices are expected to return to self-breeding costs in the peak season. In the medium and long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is basically established, but the optimization of production performance, corresponding to the reduction of the number of pigs available for production, will still lag behind. And experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Village recently stressed that farmers should be rational and adjust the deposit column. After the recent sharp rise in prices, the early selling stopped, and the behavior of selling and betting on the market appeared again, which shows that the process of capacity reduction is not plain sailing. In addition, entering the high incidence season of winter epidemic disease, we still need to pay attention to the epidemic situation of live pig disease in winter, and the inflection point of trend reversal still needs to be determined by the removal of production capacity. Pig enterprises lost a lot of money in the third quarter, under the cold winter of the industry, grasping the cost optimization and abundant cash flow under fine management is the core element to tide over the trough of the industry. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control.

Pacific Securities also believes that the current stage of the pig cycle at the bottom of the basic discovery, the fourth quarter pig prices do not rule out a higher-than-expected rebound, continue to be optimistic about the bottom of the pig farming sector to fight back investment opportunities.