Ping An reported 33.5% YoY decline of VNB in 3Q21, translating into 17.8% YoY decrease in 9M21. VNB margin on FYP basis declined by 5ppt YoY to 30.7% in 9M21, or down 4.2ppt YoY in 3Q21, owing to: (1) lower contribution from high- margin critical illness business, and (2) assumption changes at the end of FY20 leading to negative YoY impact on margins. The management revised down the guidance to double-digit YoY decline of VNB in FY21E from previous guidance of positive VNB growth in 2H21E, given a continual decline in agent headcounts (-31% in 9M21) and the challenging market conditions.
Expect VNB momentum to turn around in 2Q22. Ping An Life will start the 2022 Jumpstart pre-sale in early November (vs 2021 pre-sale started in Oct 2020), with campaigns for short-term savings products till Double 12, and then will shift focus to high-margin products in mid-December. The margins of the new jumpstart products are set at largely same as the old ones. Given that the 2022 Jumpstart pre-sale period will be around one month shorter than that of 2021, we expect the pressure on new business momentum is likely to sustain till 1Q22. We believe the low base effect will kick in starting from 2Q22, and the agent headcounts will bottom out around 2Q-3Q22.
Digital agency channel reform well on track. Ping An continued to see positive progress on its pilot projects under the agency reform in 3Q21. The insurer targets to expand the pilot programs to a nationwide implementation before the end FY22.
Exposure to real estate investment. The insurance investment exposure to real estate sector rose to 5.5% in 3Q21 from 4.8% of total investment at end- 1H21, owing to an incremental investment in commercial properties with over 7% rental yields, while the exposure to property stocks and bonds remained largely stable. No major impairment of real estate investment in 3Q21.
Lower VNB forecasts and roll forward TPs to FY22E. We lower our FY21E/FY22E VNB growth forecasts to -18%/+6% YoY and roll over our TPs to FY22E at HK$95.07/RMB78.91 for H/A share. Ping An is trading at 0.5x P/EV FY22E or 0.9x P/BV FY22E. We think the valuation is not demanding and the current share price already factored in the slowdown of life insurance business and a write-down of real estate investments. Maintain BUY.
平安報告稱，2011年第三季度VNB同比下降33.5%，9M21同比下降17.8%。在FYP基礎上，VNB利潤率在21財年9月同比下降5ppt至30.7%，或在2011年第三季度同比下降4.2 ppt，原因是：(1)高利潤率危重疾病業務的貢獻較低，以及(2)20財年末的假設變化導致利潤率同比下降。鑑於代理人數持續下降(9M21年度為-31%)和具有挑戰性的市場狀況，管理層向下修訂了21財年VNB同比下降兩位數的指引，而此前的指引是2H21財年VNB正增長。
預計VNB的勢頭將在22年第二季度扭轉。平安人壽將於11月初開始2022年Jumpstart預售(VS 2021年預售始於2020年10月)，短期儲蓄產品的活動將持續到雙12，然後將在12月中旬將重點轉向高利潤率產品。新產品的利潤率與舊產品基本相同。鑑於2022年Jumpstart預售期將比2021年縮短約一個月，我們預計新業務動能的壓力可能會持續到22年第一季度。我們相信，低基數效應將從2Q22開始生效，座席人數將在2Q22-3Q22左右觸底。
數字代理渠道改革進展順利。平安在21年第三季度繼續看到機構改革試點取得積極進展。該保險公司的目標是在22財年結束前將試點計劃擴大到全國範圍內實施。
對房地產投資的風險敞口。由於對租金收益率超過7%的商業物業的增量投資，對房地產行業的保險投資敞口從第一季度末佔總投資的4.8%上升至2011年第三季度的5.5%，而對地產股和債券的敞口基本保持穩定。2011年第三季度房地產投資無重大減值。
下調VNB預測，並將TPS前滾到22E財年。我們將我們的FY21E/FY22E VNB增長預測下調至-18%/+6%，並將我們的TPS展期至FY22E，H/A股價格為95.07港元/人民幣78.91元。平安的交易價格為0.5x P/EV FY22E或0.9x P/BV FY22E。我們認為估值並不苛刻，目前的股價已經考慮到壽險業務放緩和房地產投資減記。維持買入。
