Incident: On October 28, 2021, the company released its report for the first three quarters, stating that net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the first three quarters was 1,131 million yuan, an increase of 76.5% over the previous year; operating income was 7.919 billion yuan, an increase of 46.88% over the previous year.
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The company's performance declined month-on-month in the third quarter: According to the announcement, the company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 208 million yuan in the third quarter, down 1.75% year on year and 53.50% month on month.
Coke prices continued to strengthen, and production and sales declined month-on-month: the company produced 377,800 tons of coke in the third quarter, up 11.52% year on year, down 27.86% month on month, and sold 385,500 tons of coke, up 16.89% year on year, down 30.61% month on month. The selling price of a ton of coke was 3258.02 yuan/ton, up 56.88% year on year and 24.7% month on month. The purchase price of raw coal was 2073.26 yuan/ton, up 118.28% year on year and 36.56% month on month.
Prices of major raw materials have risen, and chemical profits have been compressed: in terms of sales, sorbic acid (potassium) sales in the third quarter were 3132.73 tons, up 4.87% year on year and 0.83% month on month. Sales of para-methylphenol were 1532.88 tons, down 24.35% from the previous year, down 47.66% from the previous year; sales of carbon black were 103,700 tons, up 36.94% year on year, up 20.29% from the previous year; sales of white carbon black were 5562.66 tons, down 44.56% from the previous year, down 27.76% from the previous year; methanol sales were 24,400 tons, down 17.7% from the previous year, and 31.1% from the previous quarter; in the third quarter, the company achieved poly sales volume of 2,400 tons and 99.5549 tons of acrylic . In terms of price, the price of carbon black in the third quarter was 6749.24 yuan/ton, up 54.74% from the previous year, down 0.4% from the previous year; the price of white carbon black was 4,263.48 yuan/ton, up 9.93% year on year, up 0.7% month on month; the price of sorbic acid and potassium sorbate was 26,484.58 yuan/ton, down 2.06% year on year, up 3.4% month on month. Methylphenol sold for 16759.41 yuan/ton, up 2.2% year on year and 5.3% month on month. The price of polypropylene is 7507.14 yuan/ton, and the price of propylene is 6825.92 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the purchase price of coal tar in the third quarter was 3,704.35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.38% over the previous year and an increase of 27.04%; the purchase price of anthracene oil was 3479.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 53.87% over the previous year, an increase of 10.76% over the previous month, and the purchase price of propane was 4900.59 yuan/ton.
Expect the PDH project to contribute to increased performance: According to the announcement, the company invested in the construction of a comprehensive utilization project for new materials and hydrogen energy in the west coast of Qingdao. The projects mainly include 900,000 tons/year propane dehydrogenation and 8×60,000 tons/year green carbon black recycling project, 2×450,000 tons/year high performance polypropylene project, etc. Currently, the first phase of the project (900,000 tons/year propane dehydrogenation and 8×60,000 tons/year green carbon black recycling project, 450,000 tons/year green carbon black recycling project) has contributed 99.24,55,000 tons of polypropylene sales in the third quarter, propylene sales volume 49 tons. Currently, international oil prices are still high. As production increases, it is expected that the PDH project will contribute to increased performance.
Investment advice: Give an “increase in holdings - A” rating, with a target price of 19.92 yuan for 6 months. The net profit attributable to the company in 2021-2023 is estimated to be 1,413/17.13/2,106 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 1.66/2.01/2.47 yuan/share, respectively.
Risk warning: the price of coke has dropped sharply, the price of chemical products has fallen, environmental protection production is limited, environmental protection capacity has been removed