Global macro

• Oil prices bulls "crazy bet": "as early as December, US oil broke through the 100 yuan mark", "break through 200 US dollars by the end of next year"!

Traders went on a frenzy to trade crude oil call options, with the WTI call contract reaching $100 a barrel on its expiration date, with a total of more than 141500 barrels, or $141 million, as of Thursday, more than the global economy produced in a day. At the same time, traders in European countries are betting higher, and some traders believe Brent crude will reach an all-time high of $200 a barrel in December 2022, according to QuikStrike. Goldman Sachs Group and many other investment banks believe that oil prices are likely to remain high in the next few years.

• Where will the global energy crisis go? Bank of America deduces four potential paths
  

Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Corporation's global head of commodities and derivatives research, believes that by early next year, there may be four potential evolution paths for the energy market. Under each path, energy prices will adjust somewhat, but some paths may be more painful.

1. Soaring energy prices will lead to recession; 2. More production or substitutes; 3. A warm winter will ease the crisis. Raising interest rates to slow down aggregate demand

• This bull market has made a lot of money! Energy and commodity hedge funds began to show off their "transcripts"

Hedge funds betting on a sharp rise in commodities have made a lot of money in the first nine months of 2021 as the global energy crisis intensifies. Global macro commodity hedge funds rose an average of 23.2% in the first nine months of this year, while equity energy hedge funds rose an average of 12.3% over the same period, according to data provider PivotalPath. Analysts say investors' positions still leave room for a further rise in oil prices.

• Is there something bad for US stocks next year? Bank of America: the Fed is expected to be forced to change its policy ahead of time, and the impact of raising interest rates will hit.
  

Bank of America said in a new report that 2022 will be a difficult year for the stock market as the Fed prepares to adjust its policy. BofA reported that investors should not expect a repeat of this year's "bull market" in US stocks next year, as the Fed's forced early rate hike would trigger an "interest rate shock". On the other hand, BofA points out that despite the bleak outlook for 2022, investors should not sell their shares right away. On the contrary, due to the current bearish consensus, investors should sell after the expected rebound at the end of the year.

• A new phenomenon in the US stock earnings season: the resignation rate hit a record high, and the catering service industry fell into a "shortage of employees"

At a time of energy shortage and supply chain shortage, the US food and retail industry is also facing a new big problem: shortage of employment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the turnover rate in the US catering industry reached 6.8 per cent last week, compared with 2.9 per cent across the country as a whole. Gregory Frankford, an analyst at Guggenheim, a leading investment agency, points out that the turnover rate in the US catering industry has exceeded the peak of 5 per cent in 2006 and 2019 and is well above the average of 4.1 per cent over the past 20 years. Analysts believe that staff shortages in the retail and catering services sector are likely to continue for some time, adding to the pressure on the two sectors to report results at the end of this year and next.

Hot news

• Us stock index futures fell before the day.

• The explosion of "Squid Game" has created a value of US $900 million, and Netflix Inc's three-quarter report is expected to be boosted.

According to the media on Saturday night, the streaming media giant was quoted$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The company's largest original series, the Squid Game, is estimated to be worth nearly $900 million, according to internal documents. The nine-episode Korean survival thriller went viral around the world after it was released last month. In addition, the media revealed that compared with the estimated value, the production cost of the play is only $21.4 million, or about $2.4 million per episode, which is much lower than some of Netflix Inc's other major plays.Netflix Inc declined to comment on the report.Earlier, Netflix Inc said that "Squid Game" has officially become the largest-watched TV series ever broadcast by the company, with 111 million fans.

Up 0.49% in front of the Frisbee.

• One step closer to creating a meta-universe! Facebook Inc plans to hire 10, 000 employees in the European Union
  

Social media giant$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $It plans to hire 10, 000 people in the EU over the next five years to promote a digital world called metaverse. "as we embark on the journey to bring meta-universe into life, the demand for highly specialized engineers is one of Facebook Inc's most urgent priorities. Clegg and Olivan said. "We look forward to working with EU governments to find the right people and markets to move this process forward. "

Facebook Inc rose 0.69% before the day's trading.

• Ford invests 316 million dollars in British factories to produce electric car parts

$Ford Motor (F.US) $It announced on Monday plans to invest up to 230 million pounds ($316 million) in an existing factory near Liverpool to produce electric car parts, and said the British government had pledged financial support to it. Ford said the Halewood plant would be revamped to start producing electric car parts in 2024, gradually replacing internal combustion engine gearboxes and ensuring that jobs at the plant were not cut. Earlier this year, Ford announced plans to stop selling fuel cars in Europe by 2030.

• Tesla, Inc. 's pick-up period in the United States has been extended again! It takes up to 11 months.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $According to the official website, Tesla, Inc. once again extended the delivery time of all models on sale, including Model 3, Model S, Model Y and Model X. Customers who book a standard Plus version of Model 3 will have to wait about seven months; when booking Model Y, customers with 20-inch wheels ($2000) are expected to deliver next April. The Model Y, with standard 19-inch wheels, will not be delivered until July. The expected delivery time of the long-lasting version of Model S has been adjusted to June 2022; Tesla, Inc. will deliver the first new Model X to customers soon, but if you order a car now, the Plaid version will have to wait 9 months, while the ordinary long-lasting version will have to wait as long as 11 months.

Tesla, Inc. rose more than 1% before trading.

• Uber and Dubai subsidiary Careem face Saudi tax recovery of $100m

Saudi Arabia is right$UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC (UBER.US) $And its Dubai-based subsidiary, Careem, collected $100m in taxes. It is reported that the tax is related to how to calculate the value-added tax disputes with "gig economy" (gig economy) companies and self-employed people, including huge fines for overdue taxes. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund owns nearly 4 per cent of UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC and is managed by a senior adviser to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

• Toyota Motor Corp announces an investment of US $3.4 billion to produce electric vehicle batteries in the United States.

$Toyota Motor Corp (TM.US) $It announced on Monday that it will invest heavily in the US electric vehicle market, saying that it will invest $3.4 billion in electric vehicle batteries by the end of 2030, which will be used in the development and production of electric vehicle batteries.

Toyota Motor Corp North America also announced that it will set up a new company in the United States and jointly build a car battery factory with Toyota, with the goal of starting production in 2025. The investment is part of Toyota's previous commitment to invest $13.5 billion in battery development and production worldwide.

• Goldman Sachs Group has completed the regulatory record of wholly-owned Chinese joint ventures.

$Goldman Sachs Group (GS.US) $The CSRC has approved the filing of Goldman Sachs Group as the sole shareholder of his Chinese joint venture Goldman Sachs Group Gaohua Securities Co., Ltd. (Goldman Sachs Group Gaohua), according to a message posted on the official account of Wechat today. Goldman Sachs Group will acquire the stake in Goldman Sachs Group Gaohua, which is not currently owned. The business unit operated by Beijing Gaohua is now beginning to move to Goldman Sachs Group Gaohua. Upon completion of this process, Goldman Sachs Group Gaohua will change its name to Goldman Sachs Group (China) Securities Co., Ltd.

• The fourth largest car company in the world will build a joint venture plant with LG Energy to produce electric vehicle batteries

According to reports, the fourth largest car company in the world$STELLANTIS N V (STLA.US) $It was announced on Monday that it would form a joint venture with South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solutions (LGES) to supply battery packs and modules for its electric vehicles in North America. LG Energy Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of LG Chemical, was independent of its battery business unit last year and expects IPO for the rest of the year.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Hot Chinese stocks fluctuated before the session.

$Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US) $Up nearly 4%$RLX Technology Inc. (RLX.US) $Increase by more than 3%$Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) $Increase by more than 2%$Daqo New Energy Corp (DQ.US) $It rose by more than 1%, iQIYI, Inc. fell by more than 2%, KE Holdings Inc., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Li Auto Inc. and DiDi Global Inc. fell by more than 1%.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's American factory will produce 5nm chips for mobile phones from 2024, with a monthly production capacity of 20, 000 chips.

According to reports,$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $The fab in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, will start producing 5nm chips in 2024, when the monthly production capacity will reach 20, 000. Rick Cassidy, chief strategy officer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd and chief executive of the Arizona project, said the plant's capacity would be focused on CPU, GPU and IPU used in smartphones.

• BABA will release Arm architecture server chip in the near future

According to Caixin, I learned from several people familiar with the matter.$BABA (BABA.US) $The arm architecture server chip, which has been developed since 2019, has been completed in the middle of the year or released in the near future. The chip is made by 5-nanometer technology and is the most advanced server chip in the manufacturing process.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

American Macro Calendar reminder:

21:15 US industrial output in September at an annual rate (previous 5.95 per cent)

21:15 monthly rate of US industrial output in September (0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous)