Us retail sales unexpectedly recorded a positive monthly rate in September.
At 20:30 Beijing time, US retail sales recorded a monthly rate of 0.7 per cent in September, which is expected to fall 0.2 per cent. The previous value was revised from 0.7 per cent to 0.9 per cent.
Spot gold fell more than $4 in the short term after the release of the data. The most active gold futures contract in COMEX traded 2846 lots in one minute at 20:30 Beijing time on October 15, with a total value of $504 million.
Gold bears were ready to move before the data were released. There were two big inflows of COMEX contracts, causing the decline in gold prices to widen to 1%:
The most active gold futures contract of COMEX traded 2319 lots in one minute at 20:17 Beijing time on October 15, with a total value of US $411 million.
The most active gold futures contract of COMEX traded 2086 lots in one minute at 19:44 Beijing time on October 15, with a total value of US $371 million.
The agency commented on the monthly rate of US retail sales in September, saying that the data grew unexpectedly, reflecting an across-the-board improvement, suggesting that demand for goods remained strong during the month. The increase in new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in August and September dampened demand for services such as tourism and entertainment, causing Americans to shift spending to goods. Increased spending on goods is likely to put more pressure on global supply chains, which have been struggling to meet growing demand.
Leading peak global analysts pointed out that the monthly retail sales rate was higher than expected, indicating that the US market economy is active, the market economy is still recovering, and inflation has not put too much pressure on consumers. Such data may strengthen the Fed's confidence in the recovery of the market economy, which in turn will push up the dollar and dampen short confidence in gold.
Affected by this, gold fell sharply after the release of the data, focusing on the support level around 1765.0 during the day, and the upper pressure level around 1786.0.
In the long run, better-than-expected retail sales data will boost market confidence, reflecting a better recovery in the market economy and raising expectations that the Fed will tighten monetary policy earlier. This will have a long-term negative impact on gold. If investors want to try to lay out the middle line, they can try to place empty orders near 1790.0.
The improvement in market sentiment had put pressure on the safe-haven dollar and US bond yields were also low, but both rebounded today. MarketPulse wrote that the fate of gold is entirely in the hands of the dollar and its direction, almost completely inversely proportional to the trend.
Michael Langford, director of AirGuide, a corporate consultancy, said gold was unlikely to break higher in the coming week. "the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates earlier than previously suggested, and the large amount of money flowing through the system should help all physical assets, including gold, continue to rise in the coming months."