花旗客户认为美股下跌20%的可能性大于上涨20%
美债或持续下跌，对60/40股债配置策略构成压力
花旗对机构客户的调查显示，大多数投资者对持续性高通胀感到担忧，认为美股下跌20%的可能性大于上涨20%。
根据本月对90多支养老基金，共同基金和对冲基金进行的调查，尽管多数人预期标普500指数明年会温和上涨，但物价压力和美联储的政策逆转对股指构成重大风险。
接近60%的受访者正在为“持续性”通胀做准备，只有23%的受访者认为通胀是“暂时性”的。大多数机构预测美联储在2022年下半年或2023年上半年加息。
这对于指望从股指走高中获利的投资者而言是一个担忧因素，对于债券持有人来说更是坏消息。随着美股下跌，美债收益率飙升，那些坚持传统的60/40股债配置策略的机构已经在本月遭遇近一年来最大损失。
花旗集团客户预计10年期美国国债收益率将在2022年突破2%，本月已上升20个基点至1.5%左右。
他们对2022年12月标普500指数平均目标位为4630点，今年年底目标位为4487点。
根据9月14-22日的调查，这些机构客户的现金资产占比中值为5%，与长期平均水平一致。
Citigroup clients believe that US stocks are more likely to fall by 20% than rise by 20%.
Us debt may continue to fall, putting pressure on the 60-pound 40-share bond allocation strategy
Citi's survey of institutional clients shows that most investors are interested in continuous Qualcomm IncInflation is worried that US stocks are more likely to fall 20 per cent than rise 20 per cent.
Although most people expect the S & P 500 to rise moderately next year, price pressures and the Fed's policy reversal pose major risks to the index, according to a survey of more than 90 pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds this month.
Nearly 60 per cent of respondents were preparing for "persistent" inflation, while only 23 per cent thought inflation was "temporary". Most institutions expect the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2022 or the first half of 2023.
This is a concern for investors looking to profit from high school in the stock index, and even more bad news for bondholders. As US stocks fell and US bond yields soared, institutions that stuck to the traditional 60-to-40-share allocation strategy have suffered their biggest losses in nearly a year this month.
Citigroup Inc clients expect the yield on 10-year Treasuries to break through 2 per cent in 2022, rising 20 basis points to about 1.5 per cent this month.
They have an average target of 4630 for the S & P 500 in December 2022 and 4487 by the end of the year.
According to the September 14-22 survey, the median proportion of cash assets of these institutional clients is 5%, which is in line with the long-term average.
