Event description
With Guizhou Shengtun New Materials as the main body, the company plans to invest in the construction of a new energy material project with an annual output of 300000 tons of battery-grade nickel sulfate, 300000 tons of battery-grade ferric phosphate and 10,000 tons of metal-grade cobalt products in Fuquan City, Qiannan Prefecture, Guizhou Province. the total investment is expected to be 6.19329 billion yuan. The total construction period of the project is three years, which is divided into two phases. Starting from the construction of nickel sulfate system, the construction of production facilities such as nickel sulfate, cobalt products and ferric phosphate will be promoted in an orderly manner.
Event comment
Nickel layout for new energy based on raw material advantage. The company's current Youshan nickel project in Indonesia and Munari (sulphide ore) project in Zambia have a combined production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel metal per year. Based on the advantages of upstream nickel raw materials, the company will use nickel ferronickel, high nickel matte and nickel sulphide concentrate as raw materials. Layout 300000 tons (68,000 metal tons) of nickel sulfate production capacity. Thanks to the rapid growth of nickel for new energy, the current premium of nickel sulfate to LME nickel is close to 18%. The company is expected to achieve an integrated layout of new energy nickel, and to achieve a substantial improvement in the profitability of the nickel sector.
Layout of iron phosphate, comprehensive addition of new energy. In 2021, the domestic output and installed capacity of iron and lithium both broke through the 50% mark in the middle of the year. Driven by the substantial increase in iron-lithium permeability at home and abroad and the strong demand for energy storage, global shipments of lithium-iron batteries are expected to reach 770Gwh in 2025, corresponding to the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode and iron phosphate will be close to 1.8 million tons, and 2020-2025CAGR will be as high as 70%. Guizhou is rich in phosphate resources, the company layout of 300000 tons of iron phosphate production capacity, corresponding to about 300000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode, 130Gwh iron lithium battery, in the future is expected to cooperate with the group's Shengxin lithium energy lithium resources advantages, covering ternary, iron-lithium two routes comprehensive plus lithium material layout.
The rookie prototype of lithium electric materials with raw material advantages is gradually emerging: (1) the upstream nickel-cobalt raw material production capacity has entered a period of rapid expansion: at present, the company has 40,000 tons of copper, 8000 metal tons of cobalt materials, 40,000 tons of nickel materials production capacity. Nickel, cobalt and copper projects are all in the best full production state in history. In the next three years, the company will form an annual production capacity of 120000 tons of copper, 45000 tons of nickel, 16000 tons of cobalt and 300000 tons of zinc. (2) the strategy focuses on new energy, and the downward extension materials set out again: on the one hand, the trade business will be strategically reduced in the next three years, and the proportion of new energy business will be further increased; on the other hand, the company's layout of nickel sulfate capacity and addition of battery-grade ferric phosphate is further extended to lithium materials, and the strategic thinking of expanding materials under up-control resources is becoming more and more clear. In addition, Shengtun Mining and Shengxin Lithium, as Nickel Cobalt and Lithium Gemini under Shengtun Group, are expected to form a good positive coordination in lithium materials and join hands to meet the electrified era. (3) the rookie of lithium electric materials with the advantage of raw materials, the performance is expected to rise to a higher level: based on the prices of 130000 / ton nickel and 300000 / ton cobalt and the current market prices of products and by-products, the project is expected to contribute about 15.341 billion in annual revenue and 1.321 billion yuan in annual net profit. With the gradual landing of various plans of the company, it is expected to gradually form the advantageous layout of upper control resources and downward development materials, and be optimistic about the long-term growth of the company's performance, and the current time point has a strong ratio of performance to price. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 15.62,22.10 and 3.004 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE22X, 16x and 11x.
Risk Tips:
1. The company's production capacity is not as good as expected.
two。 The consumption of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, and the release of cobalt supply fell sharply than expected.
