美联储当地时间周三将基准利率维持在近零水平，但表示加息可能会比预期早一点，同时大幅下调了美国今年的经济增长预期。
美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，将基准利率维持在0%-0.25%区间不变，将超额准备金利率（IOER）维持在0.15%不变，将隔夜逆回购利率维持在0.05%不变，符合市场的普遍预期。
美联储表示，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到委员会的充分就业和物价稳定的目标取得实质性进展。
美联储声明表示，可能很快就会放慢购买债券的步伐。声明称：“如果（经济）如预期广泛持续取得进展，委员会认为调整资产购买步伐可能很快就有保障。”
但是没有迹象表明这种情况何时会发生。近期媒体的一项调查显示，投资者预计美联储将在11月宣布缩减购债，并于12月正式开始。
此外，更多的委员会成员现在认为首次加息将在2022年发生。美联储6月份发布经济预测时，略多数成员认为加息会在2023年进行。
美联储的点阵图显示，9名委员预计美联储将在2022年开始加息，占总委员数量一半，6月时为7名；其中6名委员预计在2022年加息一次，3名委员预计在2022年加息两次。
美联储的经济预测也出现了一些重大变化：经济增长前景下降，通胀预期上升。经济预期显示，美联储大幅下调了美国今年的GDP增速预期，上调了明后两年GDP增速预期；上调了今年失业率预期和明后三年核心PCE通胀预期。具体来看：
2021年至2023年GDP增速预期中值分别为5.9%，3.8%，2.5%，6月时预期分别为7.0%，3.3%，2.4%；
2021年至2023年失业率预期中值分别为4.8%，3.8%，3.5%，6月预期分别为4.5%，3.8%，3.5%；
2021年至2023年核心PCE通胀预期中值分别为3.7%，2.3%，3.1%，6月预期分别为3.0%，2.1%，2.1%。
美联储在声明中表示，经济和就业一直在走强，通胀上升很大程度上反映了暂时因素。受新冠疫情影响最严重的行业在最近几个月有所改善，但疫情反弹使复苏减缓。新冠疫苗接种的进展可能会继续减少公共卫生危机对经济的影响，但经济前景的风险仍然存在。
美联储利率决议发布后，据CME“美联储观察”，美联储11月维持利率在0%-0.25%区间的概率为98.3%，加息25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间的概率为1.8%；12月维持利率在0%-0.25%区间的概率为98.3%，加息25个基点的概率为1.7%。
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate near zero on Wednesday local time, but saidInterest rates may rise a little earlier than expected, while sharply lowering the US economic growth forecast for this year.。
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 0% Mel 0.25%, the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) at 0.15%, and the overnight reverse repo rate at 0.05%, in line with market expectations.
The Fed said it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasuries by at least $80 billion a month and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities until substantial progress was made in the committee's goal of full employment and price stability.
The Federal Reserve said in a statementThe pace of bond purchases may soon slow down. "if broad and sustained progress is expected, the committee believes that adjusting the pace of asset purchases may soon be guaranteed," the statement said. "
But there is no indication when this will happen. According to a recent media survey, investors expect the Fed to announce a reduction in bond purchases in November and officially begin in December.
In additionMore committee members now believe that the first rate hike will take place in 2022.When the Fed released its economic forecasts in June, a slight majority of members thought the rate hike would take place in 2023.
The Fed's bitmap showsNine committee members expect the Fed to start raising interest rates in 2022, accounting for half of the total number of members, up from seven in June.Among them, six members are expected to raise interest rates once in 2022, and three members are expected to raise interest rates twice in 2022.
There have also been some major changes in the Fed's economic forecasts:Prospects for economic growth decline and inflation expectations rise. Economic expectations showThe Federal Reserve sharply lowered the US GDP growth forecast for this year, raised its GDP growth forecast for the next two years, and raised the unemployment rate forecast for this year and the core PCE inflation forecast for the next three years.. Specifically:
The median forecast for GDP growth from 2021 to 2023 is 5.9%, 3.8%, 2.5%, and 7.0%, 3.3%, 2.4%, respectively, in June.
The expected median unemployment rate from 2021 to 2023 is 4.8%, 3.8%, 3.5%, and 4.5%, 3.8%, 3.5%, respectively, in June.
The median inflation expectations of core PCE from 2021 to 2023 are 3.7%, 2.3% and 3.1%, respectively, and are expected to be 3.0%, 2.1% and 2.1% respectively in June.
'The economy and employment have been strengthening and the rise in inflation largely reflects temporary factors, 'the Fed said in a statement. The industries most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic have improved in recent months, but the recovery has been slowed by the rebound in the epidemic. Progress in COVID-19 vaccination may continue to reduce the impact of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.
After the release of the Fed's interest rate decision, according to CME Fed Watch, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates in the 0.5% range in November is 98.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 1.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in December is 98.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.7%.
