Since the beginning of this year, under the background of advocating "carbon neutralization" around the world, high-energy-consuming, high-carbon commodities such as coal, natural gas and aluminum have risen rapidly. Morgan Stanley believes that this phenomenon reflects the security problem of the world energy system, which will affect all aspects of our lives in the coming decades.

As the world moves towards zero carbon emissions, coal should be oversupplied, natural gas should remain plentiful, and the marginal cost of electricity should be close to zero. But right now, everything is going in the opposite direction.

The price of thermal coal is now near an all-time high, more than doubling in the past few months to $180 a tonne, while the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has risen from about $7 per million British heat to about $20 per million British heat, also an all-time high.

Natural gas prices in Europe have also risen, which in turn has led to a sharp rise in electricity prices. Electricity prices across the continent rose from 50 euros per megawatt hour to 150 euros per megawatt hour, an all-time high. As a result of the chain reaction, aluminium prices have soared from $2000 a tonne at the beginning of the year to $2900 a tonne.

Martijn Rats, global oil strategist and head of European oil and gas equity research at Morgan Stanley, said all this was unusual, especially at a time when the global economy had not yet fully recovered from the epidemic crisis.

Rats analysis pointed out that the rise in these commodities is caused by a series of common factors.

First of all, the economic recovery after the epidemic, coupled with the unusually hot summer, led to a surge in electricity consumption and a tightening of coal supply. In addition, affected by drought in some areas, hydropower and power generation were also restricted. Against the backdrop of power shortages, aluminum smelting production has decreased and aluminum prices have soared.

These phenomena have occurred in many countries and regions around the world, such as torrential rains and staff shortages in Indonesia, railway disruptions in Russia and unrest in South Africa, all of which have affected coal supplies.

On the natural gas side, the drought in Brazil has reduced hydropower production and pushed up demand for liquefied natural gas. With the mass shutdown of liquefied terminals, the global LNG market has tightened severely in the past few months.

Europe is the world's largest natural gas terminal market. However, European LNG imports have fallen sharply this summer due to increased imports from other regions. At the same time, demand for natural gas has been further boosted by weaker-than-expected offshore wind power in Europe.

In addition, due to restrictions on natural gas supplies in Russia and elsewhere, Europe is unable to build normal levels of natural gas stocks in the summer. As natural gas prices largely determine electricity prices, electricity prices in Europe have also soared.

Morgan Stanley says what happens in commodity markets has far-reaching implications.

First, this series of events shows that commodity markets are interrelated. One region will affect another, and a variety of goods will eventually be related to each other. For example, the drought in Asia will push up not only electricity prices in Spain, but also the cost of beverage cans in the United States.

Second, this year's phenomenon shows how difficult it is to predict market movements. Just a few months ago, it was widely believed that virtually all of these commodities were well supplied and that the situation would become more and more serious over time.

Finally, these phenomena show how small the margin of security of the world energy system is, which has important implications for the future:

In the coming decades, the world will need to fundamentally change the way it produces and consumes energy. So far, the supply-side adjustment of the energy system is faster than the consumption pattern. The world is still in the early stages of decarbonization, so this creates the possibility of further instability and price squeezes in the future. Their impact is likely to extend far beyond energy and commodity markets, affecting everything from growth to inflation to politics.