原标题：“恐怖数据”美国8月零售意外向好，现货金价短线下挫5美元延续日内跌势
周四（9月16日）纽约时段盘中，北京时间20：30，美国方面公布了市场关注的恐怖数据美国8月零售销售，结果该数据表现意外向好，超出预期且录得正值。数据公布后，现货金价短线小幅下挫5美元，延续了日内跌势。
图：现货金价5分钟图
具体数据显示，美国8月零售销售月率实际公布0.70%，预期-0.7%，前值-1.1%；美国8月零售销售年率实际公布15.10%，前值15.78%。美国8月核心零售销售月率实际公布1.80%，预期0.0%，前值-0.4%。
分析师指出，尽管预期增长，但零售业仍面临供应链中断的问题，很多零售业高管表示，这一问题比去年这个时候更严重。这让人们越来越担心，来自海外的节日商品将被推迟，而德尔塔变种病毒病毒在美国部分地区的激增也可能改变消费者行为。
美国的零售数据对于判定美国的经济现状和前景具有重要指导作用，因为零售销售直接反映出消费者支出的增减变化。此次数据将在很大程度上影响市场对下周美联储货币政策声明的预期，以及市场对美元的看法。
与美国8月零售数据同时公布的，还有9月11日当周初请失业金数据。具体数据显示，美国截至9月11日当周初请失业金人数实际公布33.20万，预期32.3万，前值31万。美国截至9月4日当周续请失业金人数实际公布266.50万，预期274万，前值278.3万。
德勤周二表示，预计今年节日购物季（感恩节周末至新年）美国零售销售有望增长7-9%，达到1.28万亿-1.3万亿美元，因为随着疫情限制放松，美国人准备在旅游和外出就餐上花费更多。在线销售仍将是一个亮点，预计将增长11-15%。德勤副董事长罗德-赛德斯表示：我们认为，这种反弹的部分原因将是服务业的复苏。
近期美国数据多数表现不佳。8月美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数，及非耐用品PMI均呈现回落，对消费继续扩展产生一定的抑制作用。加之9月3日公布的美国8月非农就业数据大幅弱于预期，就业市场增速放缓；8月季调后CPI月率0.3%，不及预期的0.4%。
Glenmede首席投资官Jason Pride表示，经济数据开始支持这样的观点，即高通胀可能是暂时的。Pride称，看起来市场的看法正在向美联储的看法靠拢，我认为这正让市场消化的利率区间稳定下来。如果数据如预期般疲弱，美联储将有理由继续推迟Taper时间，美元恐遭受进一步打击，这将推动金价和其它主要货币上涨。
北京时间20：35，现货金价报1762.52美元/盎司。
Original title: "terrorist data" US retail sales unexpectedly improved in August, and spot gold prices fell by US $5 in the short term to continue the intraday decline.
The US released its closely watched terrorist data on August US retail sales at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday in New York, which unexpectedly performed better than expected and recorded a positive figure. After the release of the data, the spot gold price fell slightly by $5 in the short term, extending the intraday decline.
Picture: spot gold price 5 minutes chart
Specific data show that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in August actually announced 0.70%, the expected-0.7%, the previous value-1.1%; the annual rate of retail sales in the United States in August actually announced 15.10%, with a previous value of 15.78%. The monthly rate of core retail sales in the United States in August actually announced 1.80%, with an expected rate of 0.0%, with a previous value of-0.4%.
Analysts point out that despite expected growth, the retail sector still faces supply chain disruptions, which many retail executives say are more serious than at this time last year. This has led to growing concerns that holiday merchandise from overseas will be delayed and that the surge of the Delta variant virus in parts of the United States could change consumer behaviour.
Retail sales data in the United States play an important role in determining the current economic situation and prospects in the United States, as retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending. The data will greatly affect market expectations for next week's Fed monetary policy statement, as well as market views on the dollar.
Data on initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week of September 11 were also released at the same time as US retail sales data for August. Specific data show that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week ended September 11 actually announced 332000, expected to be 323000, with a previous value of 310000. The number of Americans who continued to claim unemployment benefits in the week ending September 4 actually announced 2.665 million, with an expected value of 2.74 million, with a previous value of 2.783 million.
Us retail sales are expected to grow 7-9 per cent to $1.28 trillion-1.3 trillion this holiday shopping season (Thanksgiving weekend to New year), as Americans prepare to spend more on travel and dining out as epidemic restrictions ease, Deloitte said on Tuesday. Online sales will remain a bright spot and are expected to grow by 11-15%. Rod Saedes, Deloitte vice-chairman, said: we believe that part of the reason for this rebound will be a recovery in the services sector.
Most recent US data have performed poorly. In August, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan and non-durable goods PMI showed a decline, which had a certain inhibitory effect on the continued expansion of consumption. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls data for August released on September 3 was much weaker than expected, and the growth rate of the job market slowed; after the quarterly adjustment in August, the monthly rate of CPI was 0.3%, less than the 0.4% expected.
Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede, says economic data are beginning to support the view that Qualcomm IncThe swelling may be temporary. 'it looks like the view of the market is coming closer to that of the Fed, which I think is stabilizing the range of interest rates that the market is digesting, 'Mr. Pride said. If the data are as weak as expected, the Fed will have reason to continue to delay Taper, and the dollar could be hit further, which will push gold and other major currencies higher.
At 20:35 Beijing time, the spot gold price was 1762.52 US dollars per ounce.
