Main points of investment
Issue restricted stock and option incentive plans to demonstrate management confidence. The company intends to grant 75 million shares to the incentive target, accounting for 5.66% of the company's total share capital. Among them, the number of restricted shares granted for the first time is 22.25 million shares, the number of stock options is 4459 million, the number of reserved restricted shares is 2.75 million shares, stock options are 5.41 million shares, the grant price of restricted stocks is 5.05yuan per share, and the exercise price of stock options is 10.09yuan per share. The total number of incentives is 340 people, accounting for 12.7% of the company's total employees, covering a wide range.
The performance evaluation goal is high, and the future performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations. The assessment year of the company's incentive plan is 2021-2023, and the return net profit must be 200%, 220% and 240% of the 2020 net profit respectively, and it is estimated that the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 must reach 702 million yuan, 772 million yuan and 843 million yuan respectively. The return net profit of 2021H1 Company is 322 million yuan. Under the condition of the company's performance evaluation in 2021, we think that the company's performance in the second half of 2021 will be released faster or even exceed expectations. At the same time, in the future, with the gradual production of electrode foil production, climbing, fund-raising projects gradually reach production, the company's performance is expected to increase in 2022-2023.
Aluminum prices continue to rise by leaps and bounds, the volume price of electrode foil is rising, and the effect of price increase is expected to be highlighted in the second half of the year. The company has the largest high purity aluminum production base in the world, with an annual production capacity of 180000 tons of high purity aluminum, 55-60 thousand tons of high purity aluminum, 35000 tons of electronic aluminum foil and 23 million square meters of chemical foil. As of September 10, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum has risen to 23240 yuan / ton, a new high since 2006. so far this year, the average closing price has been 18255 yuan / ton, up 4789 yuan / ton from the same period last year. The upstream of the company has its own power plant, which is used for downstream electrolytic aluminum production, the cost is relatively stable, and the rise in aluminum prices will boost the overall profitability of the company. The company's electrode foil expansion project of 15 million square meters reached partial production in the first half of this year and will be fully put into production in 2022H2, and progress has been made in high-end product research and development and sales. The company has completed 5G capacitor product development, while benefiting from the demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power, the price of electrode foil products is expected to rise year on year, electrode foil business is expected to usher in a rise in volume and price, and the company's performance in the second half of the year is expected to continue to grow significantly compared with the previous year.
The rights issue expansion project benefits from the development opportunities of semiconductors and aerospace, and the participation in Tianchi Energy is expected to increase the investment income. The company's 2021 rights issue project will expand 15000 tons of high purity aluminum production capacity, 500 tons of ultra-high purity aluminum base sputtering target billet (used in semiconductor chips, flat panel displays, etc.), and 3000 tons of strong and high toughness aluminum alloy large section billet (used in aerospace field). The high gross profit margin of the expansion project will bring high elasticity to the company's performance. The company's stake in Tianchi Energy will benefit from the continued improvement of coal and power generation business, while the new Zhendong 1 million tons / year high purity silicon project has been announced by EIA, which is expected to usher in more room for development and thicken the company's investment income in the future.
Investment suggestion: adjust the company's 2021-2023 net profit forecast of 7.86,10.64 and 1.277 billion yuan, EPS 0.59,0.80 and 0.96 yuan, corresponding to the closing price PE of 17.3X, 12.8X and 10.6X on September 10, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk tips: aluminum prices fell sharply, the company's fundraising project progress is not as expected; electrode foil downstream demand growth is not as expected.