The decline in gross profit margin in the first half of 21 dragged down performance growth. The growth of sales is steady, the intensity of land acquisition has slowed down slightly, and land acquisition has diversified to control costs. Diversified business has been further developed. The scale of the company's interest-bearing liabilities further reduced, and the three red lines maintained the green level. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.44,1.58 and 1.73 yuan respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating with a target price of 8.64 yuan per share (corresponding to 2021PE=6X).
Settlement income increased sharply in the first half of 21, and the decline in gross profit margin dragged down the growth rate of performance. The company's revenue / operating profit / return net profit in the first half of 21 was 43.9 billion / 6.1 billion / 3.7 billion respectively, an increase of 45.1% 12.8% and 2.5% respectively over the same period last year, and the performance maintained positive growth. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin fell to 20.1% compared with the same period last year (3.1 PCT lower than that at the end of the 20th year), the three fee rates decreased by 0.9 PCT to 7.1% compared with the same period last year (0.8 PCT lower than the end of the 20th year), and the net income on investment was 645 million, an increase of 60 million over the same period last year, basically unchanged, mainly because the decline in gross profit margin reduced the growth rate of operating profit from revenue growth by 32.3PCT to + 12.8%. During the period, the decline in the project equity ratio pulled down the growth rate of return net profit to 2.5%, but still maintained positive growth.
The growth of sales is steady, the intensity of land acquisition has slowed down slightly, and land acquisition has diversified to control costs. The full-caliber sales area / amount of the company in the first half of 21 years was 1005 million square meters / 102.5 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 17% 18% compared with the same period last year, and the payback rate was as high as 97%, maintaining the leading level in the industry. the average sales price is about 120,000 yuan per square meter, slightly higher than that in the past 20 years. The new first-tier and second-tier sales structure account for 65% of the total. The 21-year planned sales amount is 250 billion, with a completion rate of 41%.
For the whole year, the total capacity of the new full-caliber meter is 8.35 million square meters / 35.4 billion yuan, which is-39% and 35% respectively compared with the same period last year, or slow down the short-term replenishment rate in order to reach the goal of three red lines and green stalls. According to the city-level structure, the proportion of new first-tier and second-and third-tier cities reached 93%, and the urban energy level increased significantly. According to the expansion mode, the company obtains 4.72 million square meters of land capacity construction area through "real estate +", acquisition and acquisition, accounting for 57%. In the case of land energy level upgrading, the company controls costs through diversified access to land. The intensity of land acquisition (land acquisition / sales) is 34.5%, which is 5.5% lower than that of the whole of last year.
In terms of stock, as of the first half of 21, the company has a total salable area of about 7311 million square meters, which can guarantee 3-year sales according to 12-month rolling sales, which is relatively reasonable and abundant, and slightly higher than the turnover speed of the 20-year 3.2-year development cycle.
Diversified business has developed steadily.
a. Smart service business: in the first half of 2021, the revenue of Jinke service was about 2.59 billion yuan, + 88.8% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 530 million yuan, + 80.4% compared with the same period last year. By the end of the reporting period, Jinke service had a managed area of about 187 million square meters, with an independent third party accounting for about 51.8%; the contract area was about 315 million square meters, and an independent third party accounted for about 58.3%, maintaining high-quality growth in scale and quality efficiency.
b. "Real Estate +" business: Jinke industry integrates development, investment and operation. By the end of the reporting period, it had entered 22 cities in 14 provinces, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan, Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu and Hebei, with a total of 28 operation and management projects and a total development and operation area of more than 1300 million square meters. In the first half of the year, the science and technology industry has added more than one million square meters of development and operating area.
c. New energy business: during the reporting period, the company decided to carry out in-depth strategic cooperation with Qingdao City Investment New Energy Investment Co., Ltd. in the fields of urban renewal, new energy business, property management, project investment and financing, and sold the heavy asset business of its Jingxia and Yandun wind farms to Qingdao Energy Investment. The consideration of this equity transaction is 1.394 billion yuan. The equity of the subsidiary involved in the above transaction completed the registration of the change on June 29, 2021.
The scale of the company's interest-bearing liabilities further reduced, and the three red lines maintained the green level. As of the first half of 21, the company's book interest-bearing liabilities were 94.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan compared with the end of the 20th year (16 billion yuan less than the mid-year report). In terms of maturity, the proportion of immediate interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 5 PCT to 28%, while the proportion of short-term debt was relatively small. The company's three red lines are all up to standard, with a net debt ratio of 77.08%, an increase of 2 PCT; excluding prepaid accounts by 69.55% and a decrease of 0.3 PCT compared with the end of 20, mainly due to the proper control of the scale of liabilities; the cash-to-short-debt ratio is 1.38 times, which is basically the same as that at the end of the 20th, enough to cover short-term debts.
Investment advice: the decline in gross profit margin in the first half of 21 dragged down the growth rate of performance. The growth of sales is steady, the intensity of land acquisition has slowed down slightly, diversified land acquisition has controlled costs, and diversified business has developed steadily. The scale of the company's interest-bearing liabilities further reduced, and the three red lines maintained the green level. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.44,1.58 and 1.73 yuan respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating with a target price of 8.64 yuan per share (corresponding to 2021PE=6X).
Risk tips: the intensity of land acquisition is lower than expected, the settlement scale is not as expected, and the de-urbanization of the third-tier cities in the central and western regions is not as expected