The 2021 medium report shows that the company's revenue is 14.25 billion (+ 16.9%), the net profit is 610 million (+ 8.7%), the net profit after deducting non-return is 600 million (+ 6.2%), the comprehensive gross profit is 30.2% (- 14.7pct), and the net profit is 8.1% (+ 0.2pct).
Event comment
As a result of the decline in settlement gross profit, the growth rate of home net profit is lower than that of revenue, and the gross margin of investment property increases. 2021H's revenue increased by 16.9% to 14.25 billion, of which revenue from development business increased by 13.1% to 10.89 billion, accounting for 76.4%, and investment property increased by 21.9% to 2.47 billion, accounting for 17.3%. The growth rate of return net profit (+ 8.7%) is lower than that of revenue growth (+ 16.9%), mainly because the comprehensive gross profit margin is reduced by 14.7pct to 30.2%, and the development business settlement gross profit margin is also reduced by 21.2pct to 22.1%. The increase in investment income and loss to 620 million (a loss of 370 million in the same period of 2020) is also a drag on performance growth. Although 2021H's tax and surcharge rate, period expense rate and income tax rate were reduced by 6.2pct, 2.9pct and 10.0pct to 4.9%, 11.1% and 39.9% respectively, and the credit impairment gain was 510 million (30 million in the same period last year), it is still difficult to fully offset the impact of the decline in gross profit margin of the development business on performance growth. Looking forward to the whole year, 2021H Company received 42.71 billion (+ 15.3%) in advance and 1.3X in advance / annualized settlement, ensuring the settlement of late development income. 2021H investment property gross profit increased by 28.2% to 1.61 billion, accounting for 37.5% of gross profit (accounting for the same increase in 14.5pct). The steady growth of investment business is expected to contribute to the steady growth of the company's annual performance.
The sales are positive, and the land reserves are abundant to ensure the scale growth in the later period. 2021H has a sales volume of 35.96 billion (+ 20.3%), a sales area of 163.3 million square meters (+ 37.9%), and an average sales price of 22018 yuan per square meter (- 12.7%). The decline in average price is related to the sinking of the company's urban layout in recent years. 2021H take 2.20 million square meters of land (- 26.1%), land amount 21.5 billion yuan (+ 111.7%), average land price 10644 yuan / square meter (+ 186.7%). The improvement of floor price is related to the higher energy level of the city, the amount of land acquisition / sales amount is 59.8%, the area of land acquisition / sales area is 123.7%, and the investment in land acquisition is more active. 2021H company can sell 2465 million square meters of land storage, the annualized sales cycle is 3.3 years, and the land storage is sufficient to ensure the growth of sales scale in the later stage.
Investment property is growing steadily, and five new self-owned shopping malls are planned to be opened in the second half of the year. 2021H has opened 10 Dayue City + 1 Chunfeng Li + 1 Xiangyun Town + 3 management export projects, with 12 self-owned projects with a commercial area of about 1.88 million square meters (rentable area of 91.25 million square meters) and a rental rate of 94%. The rental income of 2021H shopping center is 1.34 billion (+ 30%). Revenue from 2021H investment property and related services business also increased by 21.9% to 2.47 billion, with a gross profit margin of 65.2% (+ 3.3pct). As of 2021H, there are 17 self-supporting projects under construction, with a commercial area of about 176 million square meters, and two light assets Dayue City with an area of about 320,000 square meters. The company is expected to open five new self-supporting shopping malls in the second half of the year, with a commercial area of about 659,000 square meters.
Investment advice: with the gradual digestion of high prices, the steady growth of property holdings, and the settlement of high-quality land under the dual-platform model, the company's performance may usher in the bottom range; in addition, the proportion of company-owned business continues to rise. it is expected to provide a larger margin of safety. It is forecast that the net profit from mother will be 16.6 trillion in 2021-2023, and the growth rate of performance in 2022-2023 will be 11.7% and 13.3%, corresponding to 8.8 pm 7.9max 7.0X, which will be rated as "over-holding".
Risk hint
1. Gross profit margin of development business has fallen sharply
two。 Provision for large impairment losses on assets
3. The opening speed of the shopping center is not as fast as expected.
4. The profitability of the newly acquired project is lower than expected.