Items:
The company released its semi-annual report for 2021, with operating income of 38.48 billion yuan, an increase of 29.6% over the same period last year, and net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, down 14.7% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.46 yuan of EPS.
Safety point of view:
Multiple factors affect performance, and open resources are still sufficient: the company's 2021H1 revenue was 38.48 billion yuan, up 29.6% from the same period last year, and its mother's net profit was 1.75 billion yuan, down 14.7% from the same period last year. The decline in profit over the same period last year was mainly affected by the decrease in the settlement of non-consolidated items, and the investment income of 2021H1 decreased by 1.09 billion yuan compared with the
During the period, the composite gross profit margin fell 0.97 percentage points year-on-year to 16.3%, with a limited overall decline. At the end of the period, the contract liability is 128.82 billion yuan, which is 1.5 times the revenue of nearly one year, and the outstanding resources are still sufficient.
Rapid growth in sales, improvement in land acquisition costs: 2021H1 sales of 108.98 billion yuan, an increase of 33.9% over the same period last year, sales area of 790.1 million square meters, an increase of 29.7% over the same period last year, and an average sales price of 13793 yuan per square meter, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the first and second line sales area accounts for 32%, and the sales amount accounts for 36%.
In the first half of the year, 41 new projects were added, with a planned construction area of 699.9 million square meters and a total land price of 28.7 billion yuan. The corresponding ratio of land sales area and land sales amount was 88.6% and 26.3%, down 1.8 and 7.7 percentage points from 2020. The average floor price is 4100 yuan per square meter, down 7.1% from the same period last year, and the ratio of land price to house price is 29.7%, 3.2% lower than the same period last year. At the end of the period, the company has a total of 505 development projects, with a total of 4740 million square meters of completed resources, of which the first and second lines account for about 33%.
The financial situation is sound, and the operating net cash flow continues to be positive: the final net debt ratio of 2021H1 is 95.3%, the asset-liability ratio excluding advance collection is 77.4%, the cash short-debt ratio is 1.03 times, and the three red lines are up to the standard. During the period, the net cash flow generated by operating activities was 2.41 billion yuan, which remained positive.
Investment suggestion: consider the decline of the company's planned completion for the whole year, industry financing, stringent administrative supervision affecting costs and subsequent growth expectations. The company's profit forecast is lowered, and it is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.09,2.28,2.48yuan respectively, and the current stock price will be 2.2x, 2.0x and 1.9x respectively. The company upgrades and improves the incentive mechanism, optimizes the asset and liability structure, sufficient advance receipt is still expected to provide protection for performance release, valuation and dividend yield are also attractive, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: 1) if the regulation of the property market in key cities exceeds expectations, the price-for-price sales volume will bring further downward settlement gross profit margin and inventory impairment risk; 2) if the financial supervision of the industry becomes more stringent, it will have a negative impact on the development of the company's size; 3) if based on the competitive pressure of soil racquettes, the company will reduce the proportion of land reserve rights and interests, which will lead to the risk of minority shareholders' profit and loss ratio diluted to their mother's net profit.