1H2021 revenue reached a record high. In 1H2021, Dali’s revenue increased by 11.1% YoY to RMB11,287 mn. Revenue from the household consumption segment rose by 31.2% YoY to RMB1,679 mn. Sales revenue from the snack food segment increased by 0.4% YoY in 1H2021 to RMB4,860 mn. Dali’s revenue from the ready-to-drink beverage segment increased by 11.2% YoY in 1H2021 to RMB3,683 mn. The Company’s 1H2021 gross margin decreased by 1.4 ppt YoY to 38.3%, mainly due to dilution brought by the increasing proportion of short shelf-life bread products and higher raw material price. Dali’s shareholders’ profit grew by 7.3% YoY to RMB2,013 mn during 1H2021, equivalent to 49.7% of our earnings forecast for the full year of 2021.
1H2021 results were roughly in line and we fine-tune Dali's 2021-2023 revenue forecasts by -0.2%, -0.5% and -0.7%, respectively. We forecast 2021-2023 total revenue of RMB22.4 billion, RMB23.6 billion and RMB25.0 billion, representing YoY growth of 6.7%, 5.4% and 5.8%, respectively.
Considering the impact of higher raw material cost, we have decreased our 2021-2023 earnings forecast by 1.5%, 1.1% and 0.9% to RMB4.0 billion, RMB4.3 billion and RMB4.7 billion, respectively.
Maintain "Buy" and TP of HK$5.70. We expect that Dali's long-term performance will be underpinned by growth potential brought by the household consumption segment, strong cash flow, improving product mix, enhanced incentive mechanism for distributors and refined channel management. Our TP represents 16.3x/ 15.2x/ 14.0x 2021-2023 PER, respectively.
2021年上半年營收創歷史新高。2021年上半年，達利的收入同比增長11.1%，達到人民幣112.87億元。家庭消費部門的收入同比增長31.2%，達到16.79億元人民幣。2021年上半年，休閒食品部門的銷售收入同比增長0.4%，達到人民幣48.6億元。2021年上半年，達利來自即飲飲料領域的收入同比增長11.2%，達到人民幣36.83億元。該公司2021年上半年的毛利率同比下降1.4個百分點，降至38.3%，主要原因是短保質期麪包產品的比例增加和原材料價格上漲帶來的稀釋。2021年上半年，達利的股東利潤同比增長7.3%，達到20.13億元人民幣，相當於我們2021年全年收益預期的49.7%。
2021年上半年業績大致一致，我們將大立光2021-2023年營收預測分別微調-0.2%、-0.5%和-0.7%。我們預測2021-2023年總收入分別為224億元、236億元和250億元，同比分別增長6.7%、5.4%和5.8%。
考慮到原材料成本上漲的影響，我們將2021-2023年的收益預期分別下調1.5%、1.1%和0.9%，至40億元、43億元和47億元。
維持“買入”及TP為5.70港元。我們預計，大理的長期業績將得到家庭消費領域帶來的增長潛力、強勁的現金流、改善的產品結構、增強的經銷商激勵機制和精細化的渠道管理的支撐。我們的TP分別為16.3x/15.2x/14.0x 2021-2023。
