Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. H1 revenue 740 million yuan (+ 22%), return to the mother net profit of 460 million yuan (+ 48%), deducted non-410 million yuan (+ 43%) in line with expectations. Maintain the forecast for 2021-23 EPS of 1.14, 12.27, and 1.41 yuan, grow by 11%, maintain the target price of 18.22 yuan, and maintain an increase of 12.9 times the PE of 16.3 PE in 2021-23, maintaining an increase in holdings.
Q2 has a strong overall performance, improved profitability and improved cash flow. 1) H1 revenue / net profit increases compared with 2019H1-5.1max 13.6% Q1 Q2 revenue increases by 1331%, net profit increases by 6.1%, net profit increases by 3650%, fair value changes have a certain impact on net profit; 2) H1 gross profit 71.6% (+ 5.3pct), net profit 63.8% (+ 12.8pct), expense rate 4.5% (+ 0.3pct) 3) H1 operating net cash flow of 750 million yuan (+ 191%) due to the reduction of factoring accounts receivable / reduction of rent and service charges of about 100 million yuan in the same period last year; 4) asset-liability ratio of 14.1% (+ 0.1pct).
Be optimistic about the new retail sales to create the second growth curve. 1) the new retail accelerates the promotion of "goods + services + social + scenarios + content + digitization"; 2) the new retail trial store "Animal Symphony Troupe" provides furniture / soft / whole business to end consumers through self-controlled supply chain; the second new retail store "caramel box"
To create a brand-new brand of strict selection of good household goods for new people, which has begun trial operation; 3) to reach cooperation with dozens of head smart home brands and platforms at home and abroad to build a scene of integration and optimization of household appliances, promote the intelligent construction of the whole house; 4) the art business will focus on "content + curatorial", continuously promote curatorial projects and continuously drain offline stores.
We will continue to promote digital upgrading and be optimistic about improving the quality and efficiency of ecological thinking operation. 1) promote online and offline linkage, and organize 24 live broadcasts by the end of June through live broadcast platforms such as Kuaishou Technology / Mini Program Mall, with more than 80,000 visitors and more than 80,000 pieces of live broadcast; 2) promote the linkage of nine major formats, such as creative design center / home art museum / fashion soft decoration museum, to meet the core needs of users; 3) promote fine management, and continue to promote the integrated application of finance, taxation and comprehensive budget management in the NCC information system industry.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated, the new retail promotion is not as expected, and so on.
