Overview of events
The company's income / return net profit / deducted non-net profit in the first half of 2021 was 548ppm respectively, which increased by 129%/332%/NA over 20H1 and 5% by 19H1, which was in line with the performance forecast period; non-recurrent income was 27.53 million yuan, mainly government subsidies; operating cash flow was 230 million yuan, which was an outflow in the same period last year, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of applicants benefiting from the epidemic. As of the end of last year, the contract debt of 21H1 was 581 million yuan, up 29% from the end of last year. 2021Q2's single-quarter income / return net profit / deducted non-net profit is RMB 323,000,000, respectively, with an increase of 85%/-30%/NA and 19Q2 growth of 2%, 38% and 20% respectively over the same period of 20Q2.
Analysis and judgment:
Revenue split: (1) Sub-industry: 2021H1 driver training / flight training / sales of goods / agency services / rental services / catering, accommodation / right to use / other income is 4.85x0.32pm / 0.016x0.02max / 0.02max / 0.01500000 yuan respectively. The company began pilot training in August 2020. Currently, orders-on-hand for pilots training have reached 360 million yuan. In addition, aircraft agency services, leasing services and catering services have achieved rapid growth. (2) Sub-region: the income of 2021H1 in Beijing / Shandong / Shijiazhuang / Jingzhou / Yunnan / Henan is 3.74max 0.62 RMB 0.131,0341,057 million respectively, the market share in Beijing area continues to increase, Jingzhou Company recovers significantly after the epidemic, and Shandong Company continues to climb the slope when it starts business in the second half of 2019.
2021H1 gross profit margin 49.85%, year-on-year 20H1 improved 23.37pct, year-on-year 19H1 decreased 0.37pcct, mainly due to the recovery of demand after the epidemic and the company's cost reduction and efficiency. 2021H1 net interest rate is 15.40%, 7.25pct is higher than 20H1, 4.09pcct is lower than 19H1, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 5.56%, 21.65%, 2.60%, 3.67%, 0.92, 17.96, 6.55 and 0.29/-0.41/-1.02/0.02pct, respectively. On the one hand, the operating performance of 2021H1 companies in Yunnan / Shijiazhuang / Shandong / Jingzhou has improved significantly: the net profit of Yunnan / Shijiazhuang / Shandong / Jingzhou is respectively 598, 1391 and 1460 million yuan, Yunnan companies continued to improve after break-even in 2020, and the operating performance of Jingzhou, Shijiazhuang, Shandong and other companies also improved significantly compared with the same period in 2020. On the other hand, the 2021H1 aviation training section is profitable for the first time.
Future growth drive: (1) to achieve full coverage of intelligent driving training system in different operating areas: the company has laid more than 1000 VR simulators and nearly 1000 intelligent vehicles in Beijing, Yunnan, Shijiazhuang, Jingzhou, Hubei, Zibo, Shandong and Inner Mongolia. (2) promote intelligent driving training system throughout the country. (3) to build the brand of Oriental Fashion Flight training: at present, it operates four navigable airports in Zhoukou, Henan, Dezhou, Shandong, Shangqiu (under construction) and Pinggu, Beijing, realizing the operation scale of "three schools and four games".
Investment suggestion
Focus on the company's performance flexibility after the epidemic in 2021, as well as the confirmation progress of aviation school orders and the evolution of the light asset model brought about by the laying of VR equipment:
(1) VR is expected to bring cost reduction, and more efforts are expected to be made this year; (2) most of the training orders for aviation schools are expected to be confirmed this year (taking into account the fact that orders are on hand, trainees are in training and the transfer of orders to China is affected by the epidemic abroad); (3) the company has taken measures to introduce new executives, change remote leaders, strengthen all-staff marketing reform, and encourage improvement. Considering that the impact of the epidemic and the contribution of non-driving training business in the third quarter is still limited, the 2021-23 income is reduced from 1.704 billion yuan in 2021-23 to 1.856 billion yuan in 1.709, and the return net profit is from 2.91 to 3.51 million to 426 million in 250, 313, which maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of poor development of new business, the risk of impairment of goodwill, the risk of equity pledge of major shareholders, and systemic risk.