Core ideas:
The completion is lower than expected, the influence of adverse factors is magnified, and the gross profit margin is stable. According to the company's report, in the first half of 2001, the company achieved 38.482 billion yuan in main business income, an increase of 29.6 percent over the same period last year, an operating profit of 2.712 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 percent, and a return net profit of 1.748 billion yuan, down 14.7 percent from the same period last year. 1.66 billion yuan was deducted from the non-return net profit, down 5.3 percent from the same period last year. The main reason for the decline in profits is that the decline in the settlement scale of non-consolidated projects has led to a sharp decline in investment income. On the one hand, there are reasons for the gradual upgrading of the merger structure in Central and South China, on the other hand, part of the company's cooperation is small and medium-sized private enterprises, and it is difficult to control the project process of non-merger projects. the tight capital environment of private real estate enterprises and the fluctuation of material prices in the first half of the year caused the overall rhythm to fall short of expectations. In terms of profit margin, 21H1's overall gross profit margin was 16.3%, down 1 percentage point from the same period last year, of which the real estate settlement gross profit margin was 19.06%, basically the same as the annual level.
The Yangtze River Delta contributes to the increment of sales, and Hercynian has the highest growth rate. In terms of sales, the company's sales volume in the first half of 21 was 108.98 billion yuan, an increase of 33.9% over the same period last year. The largest regional increase was in Hercynian, which is also an area the company has focused on expanding in the past 20 years. The largest incremental contribution is in the Yangtze River Delta, and it is all contributed by Jiangsu. The contribution rate of Jiangsu Province reached 40%, 3 percentage points higher than the level for the whole of last year.
In terms of investment, the company took 41 projects in the first half of the year, with a land amount of 29 billion yuan and 27% of the land, which was lower than that of the whole of last year and the low investment intensity in recent years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the performance in 21-22 is 1.86 yuan per share and 2.02 yuan per share respectively.
On the whole, the first half of the 21st year is a big challenge for all private real estate enterprises. Central and South China has been affected by market fluctuations in land investment, financing performance and construction business. With good sales and payback performance, the company tries its best to minimize the impact. The company still has plenty of reserves and stable profit margins. It is estimated that the net profit for 21-22 years will be 7.1 billion yuan and 7.7 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 1% and 8% respectively, corresponding to 21-year 2.5 x PEE 22-year 2.3xPE. Maintain the fair value of 10.15 yuan per share and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips. The prosperity of the industry is declining; the progress of real estate settlement is not as expected.