2021H1 homing net profit + 3% compared with the same period last year
The company released semi-annual report on August 23, 21H1 achieved revenue of 282.7 billion yuan, year-on-year + 35%; return to the mother net profit of 8.23 billion yuan, + 3% year-on-year; deduction of non-return net profit of 7.79 billion yuan,-2% year-on-year. We maintain the profit forecast, but due to the impact of stock offering, adjust the company's 21-23 EPS to 1.34,1.57,1.84 yuan. Comparable company's 21-year average PE is 5.4x (Wind consensus expectation). Considering that the company's diversified business capital accumulation is likely to magnify the impact of debt reduction on the company, we think that the company's 21-year reasonable PE is 4.8x, and the target price is 6.43RMB, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Infrastructure business has become an important growth pole, and the real estate carry-over and the impact of business structure have dragged down the gross profit margin of 21H1 Co., Ltd. Real estate / infrastructure business revenue of 56% year-on-year to 157.4 billion yuan. Infrastructure business has grown rapidly after the merger of Guangxi construction projects, and has become an important revenue growth pole of the company. The growth rate of net profit is lower than that of revenue, mainly because the gross profit margin of real estate business is from-2.6pct to 23.2%, the gross profit margin of commodity sales is from-1.2pct to 3.84%, and the increase in the share of income from infrastructure business with low gross margin leads to the overall gross profit margin from year-on-year-3.0pct to 11.9%. The 21H1 contract liabilities and the total amount of infrastructure projects under construction relative to the revenue coverage of real estate and infrastructure in 2020 are 223% and 449% respectively, further consolidating the foundation for future performance growth.
Sales pay close attention to the recovery rate, take the land to emphasize "correct return"
21H1 company pays close attention to cash withdrawal, the sales area is + 25% to 1294 million square meters compared with the same period last year, the sales amount is + 23% to 164.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, of which residential accounts for 71%, and the repayment rate is + 3bp to 89% compared with the whole year of 20.
Under the trend of reducing the debt target, Nagland highlights high-quality requirements such as "cash flow back is fast", and its efforts have been weakened. 21H1 takes land construction surface year-on-year-52% to 6.99 million square meters, land amount-24% to 33.9 billion yuan, the amount caliber equity ratio is higher than 20 years-8pct to 82%, land goods comparison 20 years + 12pct to 38%.
The "yellow file" is in sight during the year, and the cash flow has improved significantly.
As of 21H1's interest-bearing debt of 286.9 billion yuan, a further drop of 34.9 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, the company strives to reduce more than 30 billion yuan by the end of the year. As of 21H1, the net debt ratio, the asset-liability ratio after deducting accounts received in advance, and the short-term debt coverage ratio were 117%, 83% and 134% respectively, all improved from the beginning of the year, and the company expects the net debt ratio to reach the standard by the end of the year. The average financing cost is 5.61%, which is 3bp lower than at the end of 20 years. With the help of money recovery and land control, the net cash flow of business activities was + 592% to 28.6 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
Effective debt reduction and maintenance of "buy" rating
We maintain the profit forecast, but due to the influence of stock offering, we adjust the company's EPS in 21-23 to 1.34,1.57,1.84 yuan (the previous value is 1.40,1.65,1.93 yuan). Comparable company's 21-year average PE is 5.4x (Wind consensus expectation). Considering that the company's diversified business capital accumulation is likely to magnify the impact of debt reduction on the company, we think that the company's 21-year reasonable PE is 4.8x, the target price is 6.43RMB (the previous value is 7.84RMB), and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk tips: epidemic situation, capital chain, real estate policy, downside risk of real estate market.