Event: the company released its semi-annual report of 2021, with revenue of 620 million yuan (+ 8.7%) and net profit of 31.52 million yuan (- 36.4%) in the first half of the year, of which 21Q2 achieved revenue of 310 million yuan (+ 8.8%) in a single quarter and net profit of 19.18 million yuan (- 26.6%), in line with market expectations.
Fresh bean products grew steadily, and sales of plant protein drinks resumed. 1. in terms of categories, the income of fresh bean products in the first half of the year was 420 million yuan, + 5.6% compared with the same period last year, which was mainly driven by the increase in tonnage price. the increase in tofu income led to an increase in the overall income of fresh bean products, while the income of dried bean curd, thousands of sheets and vegetarian chickens decreased. High-end tofu gradually opened up the market, and the difference with competitors was further opened. The income of plant protein drinks reached 98.25 million yuan, + 51.7% compared with the same period last year. The company's newly established plant protein drinks division led to the recovery of downstream demand and the introduction of new products such as bottled soymilk, and the product volume led to rapid income growth. 2. From a sub-channel point of view, the distribution model achieved income of 400 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year, and the proportion increased from 2.8pp to 65.4%. Farmers' market is the main distribution center of agricultural and sideline products, matching with the distribution model. As of the end of 2021H1, the company had a total of 1506 dealers, a net increase of 63; direct sales realized revenue of 66.49 million yuan, an increase of 80.8% over the same period last year, increasing 4.3pp to 10.8%.
Soybean costs upward stack preferential policies to stop, profitability has declined. 1. The gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 28.2%, down 11.1pp from the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) the soybean cost increased by 34.4% over the same period last year, and the company has raised the price of some fresh bean products to cope with the cost pressure; 2) implement the new accounting standards to include the transportation expenses originally included in the sales expenses into the operating costs, while driving the sales expense rate down to 14.7% by 4.7pp. 2. In terms of expense rate, the management expense rate and R & D expense rate are 5.2% and 0.7% respectively, which are basically stable; the financial expense rate is 0.5%, which is lower than that of the same period last year (1.2pp), mainly due to the reduction of interest and exchange loss in the current period. The overall net interest rate was 5.1%, down 3.6pp from the same period last year, mainly because 20H1 was affected by national preferential policies, the cost base was low, and 21H1 returned to normal.
The expansion outside the province is accelerating, and the leading position of the industry continues to be consolidated. Signed a "cooperation framework agreement" with Nanjing fruit food, the company or its holding subsidiary plans to invest in Nanjing fruit, which marks a substantial step for the company to explore the mode of investment expansion. 1. Through management output and mode grafting to enhance the influence of the invested enterprises, the company can also make use of the existing resources of local brands to rapidly expand the new market in Jiangsu; local well-known brands + ancestral brands work together to lead the development of the bean products industry. 2. Most of the bean products are regional brands, and the expansion of equity investment can solve the problems of long construction cycle, high risk of heavy asset investment and fierce competition with foreign brands. 3. Substantial steps have been made in the expansion outside the province, the company's leading position in the bean products industry has been continuously consolidated, and the logic of medium-and long-term development has been further strengthened.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 85.71 million yuan, 110 million yuan and 130 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 0.69,0.86,1.07 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 36 times, 28 times and 23 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: soybean prices continue to rise; the project landed or fell short of expectations.
