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彼得·林奇:股市下跌总会发生,努力让自己关注于“更大的大局”

Peter Lynch: Stock market declines always happen, try to keep yourself focused on the “bigger picture”

聰明投資者 ·  Feb 14, 2022 23:57

Source: smart investors

Author: Huiyang

The opening year of 2022 is not as good as in previous years, but the market has made a series of pullbacks.

Last year it was Sweets' new energy, but since the beginning of this year, the new energy fund has fallen to a hot search.

Some fund managers mocked themselves that they dared not go to their mother-in-law's house for a meal.

Some fund managers also come out to give the holders a psychological massage. Cui Yulong, the public offering champion last year, said that the current pullback is a normal fluctuation of the market and has little to do with fundamentals. Based on the long-term fundamentals, they are still firmly optimistic about investment opportunities in the new energy industry.

Cinda Australian Bank Feng Mingyuan also said that the future of the new energy sector is clear, there is no need to pay too much attention to or worry about short-term fluctuations.

If you look back on the A-share market for more than 30 years, there have been countless declines, large and small.

Whether it is the pullback in new energy at the beginning of this year or the decline in consumption last year, the market is always taking the trouble to tell us that falling is always going to happen, just get used to it.

Peter Lynch, an investment guru, said: "it's not surprising that the stock market is falling. It always happens again and again, just like the cold winter in Minnesota. It's just a normal thing."

Successful stock pickers have the same relationship with falling stock markets as Minnesota residents have with cold weather.

You know that a sharp fall in the stock market always happens, and you are prepared to survive it in advance. If your bullish stock falls sharply along with other stocks, you will quickly seize the opportunity to buy more while it is low.

Peter Lynch has a thorough insight into the human nature of the market.

His "cocktail party" theory describes the phenomenon of human nature accurately and interestingly:

In the first stage of the stock market rally-the stock market has been down for some time that no one expects the stock market to rise at all-people don't want to talk about stocks. In fact, if they come slowly and ask me what I do, they hear me say, "I run a mutual fund." "after listening, they would nod politely and walk away.

Even if they didn't go away, they would soon turn to the Celtic game, the upcoming election, or the weather, even if they didn't go away. soon they will turn around and talk to a nearby dentist about dental plaque treatment.

When 10 people would rather talk to a dentist about dental plaque treatment than a mutual fund manager about stocks, it is likely that the stock market will stop falling and bounce back.

In the second stage, after I replied that I was a mutual fund manager, the new guests stayed with me longer-perhaps long enough to tell me how risky the stock market was-and then they went to talk to the dentist. at the cocktail party, more talk is still about dental plaque than stocks.

From the first stage to the second stage, the stock market has risen by 15%, but few people have noticed this.

In the third stage, as the stock market has risen by 30% since the first stage, a large group of enthusiastic people gathered around me all night, ignoring the existence of dentists. One after another enthusiastic guests pulled me aside and asked me which stock I should buy, even the dentist would ask me.

Everyone at the reception invested their money in a certain stock, and they were all talking about the future of the stock market.

In the fourth stage, they gathered around me again, but this time they told me which stocks to buy, and even the dentist would recommend three or five stocks to me. A few days later, I read a comment in the newspaper about the stocks recommended to me by the dentist, and their share prices had gone up.

When my neighbors told me which stock to buy, and I regretted not following their advice after the stock price rose, it was an accurate sign that the stock market had risen to its highest point and was about to fall.

Although Lynch has such an insight into the relationship between human nature and market change, Lynch never supports predicting the market because it is impossible to predict at all.

In the face of the sharp fall in the market, Lynch stressed that he should be prepared to look at the stock market from a longer and farther perspective.

So when the market plummeted, he was buying the cheap stocks he liked. Back to today, in the face of a pullback, funds and stocks that you want to buy may be a better time to enter the market slowly than when the market is booming.

The market plummeted and Peter Lynch traveled in Ireland

When the Wall Street stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, Peter Lynch was on holiday in Europe, stopping by listed companies.

On the day he arrived in Ireland, the Dow Jones Industrial average plunged 108.36 points.

Like most fund managers, the stock market has plummeted, asset values have shrunk and giant funds have been redeemed. This is the situation that Lynch faced at that time.

He himself said that he was in a bad mood because of these troubles.

But Lynch didn't panic, he said. If you sell stocks in despair during a stock market crash, then your selling price tends to be very low.

During the golf break, he took the time to call the company's office several times to explain which stocks to buy if the stock market fell further.

After the October 19 crash, the stock market began to rise steadily in November, and by June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, or more than 23%.

So Lynch said:

"whether the stock market falls by 508 points or 108 points one day, good companies will win, ordinary companies will fail, and investors who invest in these two completely different types of companies will get completely different returns accordingly. "

In a volatile stock market, it is easy for investors to panic.

In Lynch's view, the real losers in the October 1987 stock market crash were not long-term investors who had always held good stocks. It is investors, risk arbitrageurs, option traders and portfolio managers who sell stocks according to computer "sell" instructions.

Just like a cat startled when it saw itself in the mirror, the investors who sold the stock scared themselves.

Unlike these people, Lynch will take advantage of the stock market crash to buy his favorite stocks.

When the market plummets, buy Daniel stocks that you have missed.

The stock market crash, plunge and violent oscillation, which is feared by many investors, is precisely a special period in Lynch's eyes when it is possible to find particularly cheap stocks. This phenomenon occurs in the stock market every few years.

In the 1987 market crash, Peter Lynch bought the bulls he had missed.

The only year the stock market fell in the mid-1980s was in 1981, but Lynch said it was the best time to buy an Dreyfus, which began an incredible rise from $2 to $40 a share.

But Peter Lynch missed out on Dreyfus, a bull stock that has risen 20 times.

It was a period of great prosperity in financial services and mutual funds. The offices of fund managers have expanded massively, and the people who print fund prospectuses are working overtime to meet the needs of almost all new investors in mutual funds. Mutual fund companies are booming like never before in history, and people have been buying mutual funds on a frenzy.

Lynch, an investment guru who has always encouraged individual investors to invest in their areas of expertise, said: "during the boom in financial services and mutual funds, I worked as a fund manager at Fidelity. Who else can have a greater advantage than me in the stocks of investment fund companies? "

Shares in Dreyfus funds, which stood at 40 cents in 1977, rose to nearly $40 in 1986, a hundredfold increase in nine years, and the stock market was depressed for most of its rise.

Shares of Franklin funds rose 138times, while shares of Federated funds rose 50 times before it was acquired by Aetna Life Insurance.

Lynch was annoyed that he missed out on all the bulls in financial services and mutual funds. "when I suddenly found out that the stocks of these fund companies were real bulls, it was already too late. "

Every time I see a stock chart of Dreyfus, it reminds me of the investment advice I've been giving people: buy the company I know. Each of us should no longer let the investment opportunities of Daniel stocks in the industry we are familiar with slip away from under our noses. I will never make this mistake again. "

Fortunately, the market plunged in 1987, giving Lynch another opportunity to invest in Dreyfus fund stocks, and this time he seized on it firmly.

Shares of Dreyfus funds were pushed down to $16 a share by a massive sell-off, while net cash per share, after debt, was $15.

In addition to the advantage of having a lot of cash on their books, Dreyfus funds actually benefited a lot from the stock market crisis, as many investors transferred money from equity investments to money market funds managed by Dreyfus funds.

In October 1988, the company's share price rose to $25.625.

Lynch said: "I missed the opportunity to buy Dreyfus fund stock at a low price for the first time, but I will never miss it this time." Being cheated once, a liar is too bad, being cheated twice, he is too stupid. "

Prepare for a fall in the stock market

"it's very simple to say that the next time the stock market falls, I will ignore the pessimistic news. I will take advantage of the opportunity to buy some overfallen stocks on the bargain. But it's not easy to do. "

Lynch's advice is that the best way to avoid being scared out of stocks by pessimistic news is to buy stocks on a regular basis every month.

Lynch stressed that the success of choosing stocks depends on firm confidence.

And his confidence comes from the belief that people will continue to live a normal life, wearing one leg first and then another leg when they get up in the morning, and the companies that make pants will continue to make money for their shareholders. I believe that the old enterprises will eventually lose their vitality and be eliminated, and new dynamic enterprises such as Walmart Inc, FedEx Corp, Apple Inc computers will take their place.

"whenever I feel worried and disappointed with the current situation, I try to focus on the 'bigger picture', and if you expect to be able to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of 'bigger picture'. "

Lynch's so-called "bigger picture" is to look at the stock market from a longer and farther perspective.

As he said, "it's not surprising that the stock market is falling. It always happens again and again, just like the cold winter in Minnesota comes again and again. It's just a normal thing."

If you live in a cold climate and you are used to it, you have long predicted that the temperature will drop enough to freeze, then when the outdoor temperature drops below zero, you certainly will not panic that the next ice age is coming.

And you will put on a fur coat, sprinkle some salt on the sidewalk to prevent ice, and everything will be done, and you will comfort yourself that if winter comes, can summer be far behind? The weather will be warm again by then!

Successful stock pickers have the same relationship with falling stock markets as Minnesota residents have with cold weather.

"whenever the stock market falls sharply and I worry about the future, I will recall the fact that there have been 40 stock market plunges in the past to appease my frightened heart.

I told myself that the sharp fall in the stock market was actually a good thing, giving us another good opportunity to buy shares of very good companies at very low prices. "

References: "Peter Lynch's successful Investment", "defeating Wall Street"

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