The ants are finally here! It is estimated that Ant Group will be listed before Singles Day on the basis of the application for purchase on October 29 and payment on November 2.
A number of securities firms have calculated its valuation:Through absolute valuation method and relative valuation method, Guoxin Securities gives a valuation range of 1.7-2.5 trillion yuan. Morningstar Stock Research values Ant Group at 2.45 trillion Hong Kong dollars (2.1 trillion yuan).
The ant group with its back to BABA, the king of Hong Kong stocks, has attracted the attention of the public. And Tencent, whose market capitalization ranks Hong Kong stock top 2, has further opened the valuation space for its financial technology business after the ant released the listing information.
As the core business of heavyweight enterprises, how to treat the valuation of Tencent Finance?
HSBC: according to the ant valuation, Tencent's financial technology business is worth 216 billion US dollars.
HSBC Global Research recently released a report that reiterated its rating on Tencent's investment and raised its target price from 655 yuan to 687 yuan. The market focus on the valuation of Tenpay, a subsidiary of Tencent, is believed to raise its financial technology valuation forecast to about $200 billion.
HSBC estimates that Tencent's financial technology business is worth $216 billion (about 1.44 trillion yuan) at a 20 per cent discount on ant valuation. However, HSBC believes that Tencent's more disclosure of the business will help to make a more accurate valuation.
It is worth mentioning that as early as last year, the research team of Sanford-Bernstein calculated that the fundamental valuation of Tencent's financial technology business was 160 billion US dollars, with a maximum valuation of 230 billion US dollars, while Ant Financial Services Group's fundamental valuation was 210 billion US dollars, up to 320 billion US dollars.
CITIC: Tencent's financial technology business should be at the same level as Ant Group.
CITIC previously pointed out that the Ant Group and Tencent Financial Technology and Tencent Financial Technology business are dominant in users and transaction volume, and lack in the accumulation of products and data. It is expected that with the gradual improvement of the Wechat trading ecosystem, the development potential of Tencent's financial technology is expected to be gradually tapped.
Optimistic about the future of Tencent's financial sustainable development comes from: 1) scale effect: business boundary expansion; 2) structural effect: high gross margin business development; 3) quality effect: science and technology enabling finance.
From the perspective of valuation, Tencent's financial technology business should be at the same level as Ant Group.
Guoxin Securities: reasonable valuation of 1.3 trillion yuan
Wang Xueheng, an Internet analyst at Guoxin Securities, previously believed that Tencent's financial technology is similar to Ant Financial Services Group's business type. if it is given the same valuation multiple in 2020, the reasonable valuation of the business is 1.3 trillion yuan.
Edit / Phoebe