Domestic power sector investment in 1Q2021 reached RMB133.5 bn (+38.9% YoY) with newly installed power capacity reaching 23.51 GW (+73.4% YoY). Power engineering investment and power grid investment in 1M-3M2021 reached RMB79.5 bn(+31.3% YoY) and RMB54.0 bn(+48.0% YoY), respectively. All power sources recorded positive growth in new installations during the first quarter of 2021. As at the end of March 2021, nationwide cumulative installed power generating capacity reached 2,229 GW, up YoY hy 16.3%. Of the total cumulative installed power capacity, thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind and solar made up 56.5%,16.7%,2.3%, 12.9% and 11.6%, respectively.
Net earnings in 1Q2021 jumped 59.9% YoY to RMB633 mn. The 1Q2021 net earnings of Dongfang Electric beat our expectation and represents approximately 30.7% of our prior full-year earnings estimate for 2021. Net profit in 1Q2021 increased by 78.8% compared to that in 1Q2019.
Consolidated gross margin in 1Q2021 went up YoY by 0.3 ppt to 25.2%, while net margin was up 1.3 ppt YoY to 7.3%. New orders in 1Q2021 went up YoY by 31.6% to RMB15.64 bn. Earnings per share during the period was RMB0.203.
We maintain the investment rating of"Buy"and raise our TP to HK$9.50. Under more upbeat assumptions, we revise up our earnings estimates. Our revised EPS estimates from 2021 to 2023 are RMB0.800, RMB0.979 and RMB1.194, respectively. Our new TP corresponds to 9.9xw 8.1x/6.6× 2021 to 2023 PER or 0.7x/0.7x/0.6× 2021 to 2023 PBR.
2021年第一季度國內電力行業投資達到1335億元人民幣(同比增長38.9%)，新增電力裝機容量達到23.51億千瓦(同比增長73.4%)。2021年1月至2021年3月電力工程投資和電網投資分別達到795億元人民幣(同比增長31.3%)和540億元人民幣(同比增長48.0%)。2021年第一季度，所有電力來源的新裝機量都實現了正增長。截至2021年3月底，全國累計發電裝機容量2229千兆瓦，同比增長16.3%。累計裝機容量中，火電、水電、核能、風能、太陽能分別佔56.5%、16.7%、2.3%、12.9%、11.6%。
2021年第一季度淨收益同比增長59.9%，達到6.33億元人民幣。東方電氣2021年第一季度的淨收益超出了我們的預期，約佔我們之前2021年全年收益預期的30.7%。2021年第一季度淨利潤比2019年第一季度增長78.8%。
2021年第一季度合併毛利率同比增長0.3個百分點，達到25.2%，淨利潤率同比增長1.3個百分點，達到7.3%。2021年第一季度新訂單同比增長31.6%，達到156.4億元人民幣。期內每股盈利為0.203元人民幣。
我們維持“買入”的投資評級，並將TP上調至9.50港元。在更為樂觀的假設下，我們上調了盈利預期。我們修正後的2021-2023年EPS預估分別為0.800元、0.979元和1.194元。我們的新TP相當於每9.9xw 8.1x/6.6×2021至2023或0.7x/0.7x/0.6×2021至2023 PBR。
