We expect FriendTimes (“FT”) to see a strong quarter in 1Q20E, benefiting from: 1) more MAU and time spent shift to online leisure for the epidemic outbreak; and 2) eye-catching performance of newly-launched Tale of Empress (<浮生为卿歌>)。Given recent sector valuation rebound and FT’s strong grossing of new titles, we lifted FT’s TP from HK$1.4 to HK$2.0 (implying 10x/7x FY19/20E P/E), with earnings forecast unchanged. Valuation is still attractive. Maintain BUY.
Mobile games to benefit from epidemic. We expect game comps to benefit from the epidemic outbreak, with more time spent shift to online leisure & MAU in the CNY. Mobile games could directly benefit, while PC games not (less operation of internet café)。 Game sector saw price rebound in recent weeks, with valuation up to over 20x FY20E P/E.
Strong to bring upside. After launch on 31 Dec 2019,Tale of Empress (< 浮 生 为 卿 歌 >) delivered eye-catching performance.According to App Annie, Tale of Empress ranked Top20-50 in iOS grossing rank, and climbed to Top 15 on 9 Feb 2020 (Apple store rank)。 We estimate its monthly grossing at RMB40mn in Jan, and daily grossing up to over RMB2mn in Feb. We see high visibility for its daily grossing to continuously increase, if version update is executed well. The coronavirus epidemic might affect its R&D productivity in the short term for holiday extension, but S&M effort is not impacted. We believe FT will strategically invest in its key title in terms of user acquisition and content update in 1H20E. Coupled with healthy operation metrics of existing games (such as Legend of Empress (<熹妃传>), Royal Chaos (<熹妃 Q 传>), we expect FT to see a strong quarter in 1Q20E.
Potential new titles rollout ahead. Apart from , there are several new titles in 2020 pipeline (e.g. Fate: The Loved Journey <此生无白>), most of which are female-oriented. For conservative estimates, we forecast insignificant revenue contribution from new titles except for Tale of Empress and Yokai Kitchen (<精灵食肆>)。 But we keep positive on its solid game pipeline and further grossing upside.
Maintain BUY. Given recent game sector valuation rebound and eye-catching performance of key titles, we lifted our TP from HK$1.4 to HK$2.0 (implying 10x/7x FY19/20E P/E), still largely lower than industry average. More catalysts to come: 1) solid FY19E results; 2) rising Tale of Empress and launch of new titles; and 3) potential dividends.
我們預計FriendTimes(“FT”)在20E第一季度將會有一個強勁的季度，受益於：1)更多的MAU和為疫情爆發而花在在線休閒上的時間；以及2)新推出的“皇后物語”(Tale Of Empress)的亮眼表現。鑑於近期行業估值反彈以及英國《金融時報》新股票房強勁，我們將FT的TP從1.4港元上調至2.0港元(意味着10倍/7倍的19/20E財年市盈率)，盈利預期保持不變。估值仍然具有吸引力。維持買入。
手機遊戲將從流行病中受益。我們預計，隨着更多的時間花在在線休閒和MAU上，遊戲公司將從疫情爆發中受益。手機遊戲可以直接受益，而PC遊戲不會(網吧運營更少)。最近幾周，遊戲行業的價格出現反彈，20E財年市盈率超過20倍。
帶來強勁的上行空間。自2019年12月31日上線以來，《皇后傳》(<浮生為卿歌>)表現搶眼。根據App Annie的數據，《皇后傳》在iOS票房排行榜上排名TOP20-50，並於2020年2月9日攀升至第15名(蘋果商店排行榜)。我們預計它1月份的月度票房為4000萬元，2月份的日票房將超過200萬元。如果版本更新執行得好，我們預計它的日票房將繼續增長。冠狀病毒疫情可能會在假期延長的短期內影響其研發生產率，但S&M的努力不會受到影響。我們相信，英國《金融時報》將在20E上半年在用户獲取和內容更新方面對其關鍵標題進行戰略性投資。再加上現有遊戲(如皇后傳奇(Legend Of Empress)和皇家混沌(Royal Chaos))的健康運營指標，我們預計FT在20E第一季度將看到強勁的季度表現。
潛在的新遊戲即將推出。此外，2020年還有幾部新電影正在籌備中(例如：命運：被愛的旅程)，其中大部分是面向女性的。對於保守的估計，我們預測除了《皇后物語》和《橫海廚房》()之外，新書對收入的貢獻微乎其微。但我們對其堅實的遊戲渠道和進一步的票房上漲保持樂觀。
維持買入。鑑於最近遊戲行業估值反彈，以及關鍵遊戲的亮眼表現，我們將TP從1.4港元上調至2.0港元(意味着10倍/7倍財年19/20E市盈率)，仍大大低於行業平均水平。更多的催化劑即將到來：1)19E財年強勁的業績；2)《皇后升職記》和新書的推出；以及3)潛在的紅利。
