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美国经济展望大幅改善 经济学家上调2021年GDP增速预测至5.5%

Us economic outlook improves sharply economists raise their GDP growth forecast to 5.5 per cent in 2021

新浪財經 ·  Mar 5, 2021 23:18

With the advance of COVID-19 's vaccination and Congress nearing passage of a new round of fiscal stimulus bill, the outlook for US economic growth is improving significantly this year.

In Bloomberg's latest monthly survey, economists expect the U.S. economy to grow twice as fast in the first quarter as it did two months ago. Forecasts for the second three quarters of the year have also been revised upwards. The economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 5.5 per cent this year, the fastest pace since 1984 and higher than the previous forecast of 4.9 per cent.

According to the median forecast of 67 economists surveyed from February 26 to March 3, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 4.8 per cent in the first quarter, up from 3.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent in February and January surveys. In addition, economists have also raised their inflation forecasts, albeit by a small margin.

Vaccination "seems to be going well, which increases the likelihood of an earlier and broader restart in the second quarter," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Financial Markets. "the hot property market has driven the construction industry, with solid manufacturing figures and a positive investment background, so we have raised economic growth andInflation forecast. "

Economists also raised their job growth forecasts for each quarter of this year, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.1% by the fourth quarter. Non-farm payrolls grew faster than expected in February, while employment in the leisure and hotel sectors surged 355000, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Economists expect the price index of personal consumption expenditure to rise by an average of 2.4% in the second quarter, higher than the 2.2% previously expected. Forecasts for the first and third quarters have also been revised up.

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