Texas Power Markets Are In Chaos, Here Are Two Stocks To Watch. -- Barrons.com
Texas Power Markets Are In Chaos, Here Are Two Stocks To Watch. -- Barrons.com
DJ Texas Power Markets Are In Chaos, Here Are Two Stocks To Watch. -- Barrons.com
DJ德克薩斯電力市場一片混亂，這裏有兩隻股票值得關注。--Barrons.com
By Al Root
按Al Root
The polar vortex is wreaking havoc on the middle of the country. The Texas power grid, in particular, is struggling with iced-up wind farms, shut-down pipelines and natural-gas wells, and more important for consumers, power outages.
極地渦旋正在該國中部肆虐。尤其是德克薩斯電網，正在與結冰的風力發電場、關閉的管道和天然氣井作鬥爭，對消費者來説更重要的是停電。
What happens to power utilities with Texas capacity amid the weather chaos is anyone's guess. There is the potential for windfall gains as well as big losses. Determining which, however, requires some business details that investors don't usually have. A look at how the power-generation system operates makes clearer what is going on.
在天氣混亂的情況下，擁有德克薩斯州產能的電力公用事業公司會發生什麼，誰都説不準。既有暴利的可能，也有巨大的損失。然而，確定哪些需要一些投資者通常不具備的業務細節。看看發電系統是如何運行的，就會更清楚地知道正在發生什麼。
The U.S. electricity grid is made up of roughly 7,300 power plants, 160,000 miles of high-voltage power lines, and distribution transformers connecting 145 million customers. At the highest level, local grids are connected to three main interconnections: the Eastern connection, the Western connection, and Texas's system, run by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot.
美國電網由大約7300座發電廠、16萬英里長的高壓電線和連接1.45億客户的配電變壓器組成。在最高層，本地電網連接到三個主要的互連：東部連接、西部連接和德克薩斯州的系統，由德克薩斯州電力可靠性委員會(ERCOT)運營。
Ercot, one of several independent system operators in the country, is in charge of organizing the flow of electricity for Texans. The job is particularly difficult right now: Some power-generation capacity has been taken offline due to the cold, and demand is through the roof because temperatures are so low. People want to stay warm.
ERCOT是美國幾家獨立的系統運營商之一，負責為德克薩斯人組織電力流動。這項工作現在尤其困難：由於寒冷，一些發電能力已經下線，而由於氣温如此低，需求也達到了極點。人們想要保暖。
Some utility stocks could be affected by the aftermath of the vortex. "ERCOT power prices have seen the most explosive moves in power prices with real-time prices surging past $5,000 [per megawatt hour] during certain hours as Texas contends with the coldest winter temperatures since the polar vortex of 2013-14," wrote BMO analyst James Thalacker in a Sunday research report.
一些公用事業類股可能會受到漩渦餘波的影響。ERCOT電價出現了最具爆炸性的電價變動，實時電價飆升至5000美元以上[每兆瓦時]在德克薩斯州與2013-14年極地渦旋以來最冷的冬季氣温作鬥爭的某些時間裏，“蒙特利爾銀行分析師James Thalacker在週日的一份研究報告中寫道。
Many U.S. residential customers see 12 or 15 cents a kilowatt hour on their electricity bills. That is $120 to $150 a megawatt hour, making what is going on in Texas highly unusual.
許多美國住宅客户的電費賬單為每千瓦時12美分或15美分。這是每兆瓦時120美元到150美元，這使得德克薩斯州正在發生的事情非常不尋常。
Thalacker pointed out that Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG) have a lot of Texas exposure relative to other utilities he covers. Those stocks were moving on Tuesday. Vistra stock closed up 2.7% to $21.91, while NRG Energy shares fell about 5.7% to $40.59. The S&P 500, for comparison, ended the day flat.
塔拉克指出，與他負責的其他公用事業公司相比，維斯特拉(Vistra)和NRG能源公司(NRG Energy)在德克薩斯州的風險敞口很大。週二，這些股票出現了波動。Vistra股價收高2.7%，報21.91美元，NRG Energy股價下跌約5.7%，報40.59美元。相比之下，標準普爾500指數當天收盤持平。
It's tough to figure out if the market has it right, but the moves imply investors believe NRG has more risk than Vistra. That makes some sense to Thalacker.
很難判斷市場是否正確，但這些舉動暗示投資者認為NRG的風險比Vistra更大。這對塔拉克來説有些道理。
"We view NRG as having a greater relative risk to rapid increases in spot prices during the polar vortex," wrote the analyst. The problem is that NRG doesn't have as much power-generation capacity as it needs to meet its commitments to households, he said. It may be paying those huge megawatt hour prices to to deliver its promised power at previously contracted rates.
這位分析師寫道：“我們認為，在極地渦旋期間，NRG對現貨價格快速上漲的相對風險更大。”他説，問題是NRG的發電能力不足以滿足其對家庭的承諾。它可能會支付這些鉅額的兆瓦時價格，以之前的合同費率交付承諾的電力。
Still, it is hard to know what the final impact will be. "It is important that NRG's short position in ERCOT may not have grown as much as some think," added the analyst.
儘管如此，很難知道最終的影響會是什麼。“重要的是，NRG在ERCOT的空頭頭寸可能沒有一些人認為的那麼多，”這位分析師補充道。
Vistra, for it's part, has more than enough power-generating capacity in Texas, according to Thalacker. It could benefit from others' problems. But even Vistra has added risk. Natural-gas prices are up in the Midwest and Vistra has to buy some gas on the spot market to generate electricity.
就維斯特拉而言，根據塔拉克的説法，它在德克薩斯州的發電能力綽綽有餘。它可以從別人的問題中受益。但即使是維斯特拉也增加了風險。中西部的天然氣價格上漲，維斯特拉不得不在現貨市場購買一些天然氣來發電。
Neither company immediately responded to requests for comment.
兩家公司都沒有立即回覆記者的置評請求。
Thalacker rates NRG share at Hold and has a target of $45 for the stock price. He rates Vistra stock at Buy and has a $27 price target for those shares.
塔拉克對NRG股票的評級為擱置，目標股價為45美元。他對Vistra股票的評級為買入，併為這些股票設定了27美元的目標價。
His views on Vistra align closely with those of his peers. More than 80% of analysts covering Vistra rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is about 57%.
他對維斯特拉的看法與他的同齡人非常一致。研究維斯特拉評級的分析師中，超過80%的人買入股票。道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)成分股的平均買入評級比約為57%。
But the rest of the Street likes NRG just as much. More than 80% of analysts covering that stock rate it at Buy as well. Both stocks are up year to date, and are beating the market.
但這條街的其他人也同樣喜歡NRG。研究這隻股票的分析師中，超過80%的人也將其評級為買入。今年到目前為止，這兩隻股票都在上漲，表現優於大盤。
NRG's next earnings disclosure is Feb. 25; Vistra's is on Feb. 26. Expect talk about the weather on the conference calls.
NRG的下一次財報披露時間是2月25日；維斯特拉的財報披露時間是2月26日。期待在電話會議上談論天氣。
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
寫信給Al Root，地址是allen.root@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
February 16, 2021 17:45 ET (22:45 GMT)
2021年2月16日美國東部時間17：45(格林尼治標準時間22：45)
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