The company's recent situation
The company released operating information for 4020, with new orders of 1,195 million yuan and on-hand orders of 5.479 billion yuan.
The estimated revenue of 4020 million yuan was 881 million yuan, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year and a decrease of 24% from the previous month.
reviews
The epidemic is still having an impact in some parts of the country. In 4020, the epidemic rebounded in some regions of the country, such as Xinjiang. Due to the 28-day quarantine restrictions, some field personnel were unable to work, so the epidemic still had varying degrees of impact on domestic operations. The situation is better in the Sichuan region; no similar restrictions have been observed.
Cash recovery accelerated in 4Q20. According to the company's guidelines during the conference call, 4Q20 achieved strong cash inflows, as the company continued to impose more stringent repayment conditions. However, we think this is also related to the payment cycle of state-owned oil companies, which usually pay at the end of the year.
Gas storage became an important new business in FY21. The company pointed out during the conference call that in addition to the leasing business, gas storage is expected to become one of the company's important new businesses in FY21, mainly to respond to the country's 10-5-3 requirements for gas storage capacity (10% for upstream enterprises, 5% for city gas, 3 days for local governments). At the same time, after experiencing tight air sources in December, gas storage capacity is becoming more and more important. According to our forecast, the country's gas storage capacity is now less than 10 billion square meters, accounting for only about 3% of FY20's 320 billion square meters of natural gas consumption. The company emphasizes the asset-light business model. ROE and cash flow are the most important financial indicators, not net profit margins, and guidelines that no new asset-heavy equipment will be added in FY21, but will continue to lay out asset-light businesses that focus on technical services to better cope with the cyclical valuation that is still difficult in the oil service industry. It is recommended that we expect Anton Oil Service's fundamentals to continue to recover in 2021, and financial costs will drop sharply year-on-year (Mainly considering the disappearance of the problem of debt superposition), the company's stock price may be more flexible.
We kept our 2020 and 2021 earnings forecasts basically unchanged, and introduced a 2022 earnings forecast of HK$0.13 per share. We kept the target price of HK$0.60 unchanged. There was a 25% upward question from the current stock price, corresponding to 0.5 times the 2021 net market ratio. Maintain the “outperform the industry” rating. Recently, the company's stock price corresponded to 0.4 times the net market ratio in 2021
risks
The risk of US dollar debt in 2022, the global pandemic has repeatedly affected the resumption of work and production