United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) shares are up 70.4% in the past three months. The delivery giant appears to have gotten a boost from shelter-in-home environment, and at least one large option trader is making a huge bet on more upside ahead.
The UPS Trades: On Monday, Benzinga Pro subscribers received two option alerts related to unusually large UPS trades:
- At 9:39 a.m., a trader bought 346 UPS call options with a $162.50 strike price expiring on Friday above the ask price at 88.3 cents. The trade represented a $3,055.18 bullish bet.
- At 12:05 p.m, a trader bought 750 UPS call options with a $120 strike price expiring on Jan. 15 2021 at the ask price of $42.25. The trade represented a more than $3.16 million bullish bet.
Why It’s Important: Even traders who stick exclusively to stocks often monitor option market activity closely for unusually large trades. Given the relative complexity of the options market, large options traders are typically considered to be more sophisticated than the average stock trader.
Many of these large options traders are wealthy individuals or institutions who may have unique information or theses related to the underlying stock.
Unfortunately, stock traders often use the options market to hedge against their larger stock positions, and there’s no surefire way to determine if an options trade is a standalone position or a hedge. In this case, given the relatively large size of Monday’s largest UPS option trade, it could certainly be institutional hedging.
Delivering The Gains: UPS shares traded higher on Monday without any major news from the company. UPS been on fire in recent months, as the combination of low fuel prices and soaring delivery demand propelled the company to a huge second-quarter earnings beat.
UPS reported a 20.9% jump in overall volumes, including a 22.8% gain in domestic volumes and a 65% increase in business-to-consumer deliveries in the quarter.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, there’s no obvious reason to think there will be a significant change in customers’ behavior given the COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing. In the longer-term, UPS investors may be speculating that some of the pandemic related shifts in shopping behavior may stick even after the worst of the pandemic subsides, creating a better baseline environment for UPS.
Benzinga’s Take: The fact that the January calls expire more than five months from now suggests the trader isn’t making a play on near-term bullish momentum or even third-quarter earnings. The trader may simply be betting that the shelter-in-place environment drives a massive amount of holiday season shopping online, creating a late-year surge in UPS deliveries.
The January calls have a break-even price of $162.25, suggesting the stock needs to gain only about 0.4% over the next five months for the trader to turn a profit on the calls.
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聯合包裹服務公司(United Parcel Service,Inc.)(紐約證券交易所代碼:UPS)的股價在過去三個月裏上漲了70.4%。這家快遞巨頭似乎從居家環境中獲得了提振,至少有一家大型期權交易員正大舉押注未來會有更多上行空間。
UPS交易:週一,Benzinga Pro的訂户收到了兩個與異常大的UPS交易有關的期權警報:
- 上午9點39分,一名交易員買入346UPS看漲期權,執行價為162.50美元,週五到期,高於賣出價88.3%。這筆交易代表着3055.18美元的看漲押注。
- 下午12點05分,一名交易員以42.25美元的要價買入了750個UPS看漲期權,執行價為120美元,2021年1月15日到期。這筆交易代表了超過316萬美元的看漲押注。
重要原因:即使是專門投資股票的交易員也經常密切關注期權市場的活動,以進行異常大的交易。鑑於期權市場的相對複雜性,大型期權交易員通常被認為比普通股票交易員更老練。
這些大型期權交易員中有許多是富有的個人或機構,他們可能擁有與標的股票相關的獨特信息或論文。
不幸的是,股票交易者經常利用期權市場來對衝他們較大的股票頭寸,而且沒有萬無一失的方法來確定期權交易是獨立頭寸還是對衝。在這種情況下,鑑於週一最大的UPS期權交易規模相對較大,當然可能是機構對衝。
帶來收益:UPS股價週一交易走高,沒有來自該公司的任何重大消息。近幾個月來,UPS一直處於火爆狀態,低油價和飆升的送貨需求相結合,推動該公司第二季度收益大幅增長。
UPS報告稱,該季度總銷量躍升20.9%,其中國內銷量增長22.8%,B2C交貨量增長65%。
展望第三季度,鑑於新冠肺炎疫情仍在繼續,沒有明顯的理由認為客户的行為會發生重大變化。從長遠來看,UPS投資者可能會猜測,即使在疫情最嚴重的時期消退後,一些與大流行相關的購物行為轉變也可能會持續下去,為UPS創造更好的基線環境。
本辛加的觀點:1月份的看漲期權將在五個多月後到期,這表明該交易員沒有利用近期的看漲勢頭,甚至沒有利用第三季度的收益。這位交易員可能只是在押注於避難所環境推動了大量假日季在線購物,導致UPS送貨量在年底激增。
1月份的看漲期權盈虧平衡價為162.25美元,這表明該股在未來五個月只需上漲約0.4%,交易員就能從看漲期權中獲利。
相關鏈接:
看跌亞馬遜期權交易員押注200萬美元該股不會持有3100美元
如何閲讀和交易期權提示